National Intelligence Estimate
This National Intelligence Estimate represents tht riews of the Director of Central Intelligence with the advice and assistance of the US Intelligence Community.
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Prepared by CharletE. Allen, Sauonal Intelligence Officer/ormmmng
Most Ufcdy Critical Humanitarian Emcrvcndc
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Ethnic conflict and civil strife have increased humanitarian needs around the world j
The international relief system is under severe strain and faces burgeoning demands in the future. Bureaucratic tangles andwill remain the most common problems; the UN often has trouble coordinating relief efforts even among its own agencies. "Donor fatigue" will lead to more selective responses to disaster situations. Other donor countries and UN agencies will look to the United States for leadership j
Hostile environments are impeding relief efforts. In some areas of conflict, onlywill ensure lhat aid reaches (hose in need]
International operations are becoming more dangerous. Relief workers, including those under the UN flag, increasingly will become targets of violence ^
Africa will continue to generate the mosl severe humanitarian crises despite the end of the drought in the southern part of the continent. Moreillion refugees and three to four times that many internally displaced persons will be at risk of hunger and disease. Fighting in Angola and Sudan is creating conditions as severe as those in Somalia last year. In Somalia itself, (he recovery is precarious.
If fighting continues in Bosnia as we expect, (he population in need will be double that of last winter, or reachillion. Bosnians will needetric tons of supplies toequivalentHthe next six months. Even if fighting stopped, the region would requireetric tons.f
Conflict within (he coun(rics of (he former Sovie( Union have in(ensificd over the last year and will result in greater numbers of people needing emergency aid. The most severe needs this winter will be in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan.
Ethnic warfare in Afghanistan and.esser extent, in Sri Lanka will cause millions to be displaced. The number of Kurds requiring relief In northern Iraq has grownDOillion over the past year.hias in the southern marshes of Iraq could be at risk of severe food shortages over the next few months.|
Emergency humanitarian needs in the East Asia-Pacific region are declining for the second consecutive year. The political situation in Cambodia remains tenuous, however, and intensified conflict would produce additional humanitarian needs.I
Included with this Estimateall cha't (in pocket at back) containing specific environmental and operational data for each crisisoldout locater map indicating the need, degree of severity, and cause of potential or actual emergencies. AraMttlt often affected by-natural disasters are identified in figure
civil strife and ethnic warfare around the world continue to place millions of noncombatants at risk of death from starvation and disease. Since last year'scritical humanitarian needs stemming from conflict have increased.1
Efforts to respond to humanitarian crises have had mixed success. Internationalin Somalia relieved the massand resourceful and determined efforts in Iraq sustain the Kurds. In Bosnia,attempts to meet criticalsaving thousands offallen short.
Can the Relief System Cope?
The demands placed on the international infrastructure for delivering emergency relief over the past two years have uncovered ominous faultlines. Lives continue to be saved, bul breakdowns in the system have occurred. Even where food supplies arebureaucratic tangles and coordination problems, especially among UN agencies, as well as local political and economic barriers, impede the delivery of aid to people in critical need. If not addressed, the effect of these weaknesses, particularly thoseUN agencies, will erode donorand make donor countries moreto participate.|
Weilial humaniunanu Ukmro* acute imcrtcrcyconflict, natural orore not met. by routine relief prof rimmechonnrm. Wc aw ihe term "populationt at mk" lo mean ihoae In need of or dependent on international aid iodeprivation leading t> icrloui malnutrition or death (ui
Sources of Information
The information used in this Estimate comesariety of sourcesdiplomatic, military, and press reporting; data from UN agencies and nongovernmental organizations; and interviews with relief workers on the scene.
These reports frequently provideinformation: each organization reports on situations as seen through the filler of its own program, and crises developing in isolated or denied areas often have few observers. We believe someopponents, rebel groups, governments, and relieftimes exaggerate the gravityituation. For example, at one point last year, estimates on the number of people at risk of starvation in Sudan rangedoil-HonM
Any specific numbers cited in thistherefore, represent our best assessment basedeview of all available information, and we arethat they accurately portray the magnitude of lhenot the absolutely precise nuptbers of thein need.I
The International Relief Network
A multitude ofinternational and nationalorganizationsnd regionalwell as donor countries comprise the humanitarian relief system. The UN bodies include the UN Department ofhe UN Highfor Refugeeshe World Food Programhe International Children's Fundhe UN Development Programhe World Health Organizationnd the Food and Agriculture Organization IFmong thend most active of ihe more0 NGOs are the International Committee of the Red Cross, various national Red Crossthe International Rescue Committee, Medecins Sans Frontieres. Equilibre. OXFAM. and the International Save the Children
Formal interaction between humanitarian aid providers takes place in organizations established for that purpose.member International Council ofAgencies (ICVA) meets regularly with UN relief agencies; its task forcesocal point for NGO activities Incountries. The licrosslVolags Steering Committee, founded by the League of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (LORCS) and several other NGOs, submits humanitarian relief policy
to the UN and meets monthly to review current disaster situations. The EC/NGO Liaison Committeeialogue betweenuropean NGOs and the EC. In addition, the Conference of NGOs (CONGO) provides for NGOin UN meetings and committees.
When disasters occur. UN agencies, NGOs. and representatives of donormeet to plan relief efforts. They often carry out needs assessments in combined missions, although they also may do so independent of each other. Likewise, they may issue appealsonsolidated group or on an individual basis. International conferences are held to elicit contributions as well as to coordinate relief efforts. Inpecial Representative of the Secretary GeneralNDHA Special Coordinator are sent to disaster areas; in theory at least, the UNDHA Special Coordinator organizes the reliefNGOs. the EC, and donor countries also send coordinators. While all of thesewell as those from aid-receivingto discuss their individual operations and lotheir efforts, the number of meetings and the level of successful coordination appear to be specific lo the countryaid and the organizations operating there.1
Showing lis Warts...
The international relief system comprises myriad independent or semi-independent organizations that often work together but sometimes do not. The UN's agencies and officials frequently compete for primacy, to the detriment of aid delivery. In Angola, for example, the personal representative of the UN Secretary General, working with little data, has tried to make crucial decisions that run counter to the plans of the UN agencies charged with delivering emergency aid. Duplication of activities, bureaucratictensions between organizations, and lack of coordination are commonplace. The creation last year of the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs (UNDHA) wasto alleviate these problems but instead has compounded them. UNDHA often has difficulty coordinating between its New York office responsible for policy andperations headquarters in GcnevaB
nd Coming Under Fire Hostile environments around the world impede, and sometimes prevent,from delivering sufficient assistanceimely fashion. Attacks on relief convoys, theft of supplies, and murders of reliefall contribute to the impression that the organizations cannot get the job done.volunteers have long faced suchbut attacks on UN forces and officials during the past year havelow against the UN's moral authority. The UN's experiences in Bosnia and Somalia will encourage belligerents elsewhere to regard relief workers under the UN flag astargets of violence,f)
More Challenges Ahead
As humanitarian needs grow, the task of delivering emergency assistance is becoming more dangerous and complex:
In areas of conflict, forceful and costlya range of logistic, security, and combatis required to ensure that food, shelter, and medicines reach the populations at risk.
International forces will face additional problems from infectious diseases andhealth risks, whichreater threat than battle injuries to the effectiveness of units conducting the relief operat
Potential exposure to the AIDS virusanother complexity. The militaries of some countries with which L'S forces may be working have HIV-infcction rates in excess ofercent. Special planning will be required in operations involving those forces, especially in areas of conflict and in places
Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and Humanitarian Emergencies
AIDS is the final stageiral infection of the human immunodeficiency virushich destroys the body's natural immunity to fight infections. All HIV infections are fatal, fuj
Refugees, peacekeeping or monitoring forces, demobilizing militaries, and labor migrants contribute to the spread of AIDS beyond specific countries. Humanitarian aid missions involving militaries with high HIV-infection rates could spread viruses to countries where it is notroblem. For example. Liberia's relatively low infection rate could be threatened by all threeTanzania, andJoining an xpanded monitoringcH
UN regulations now require governments to certify that their personnel are HIV-negative before deploying them on UN-sponsored missions. However. AIDS screening is expensive, and somewill shirk this costly procedure. Some
countries are already having difficulty finding sufficient HlV-negative personnel to meet multinational forcedisincentiw to testing.
In addition. UN officials are not enforcing their HIV regulation. Thus, the Ugandan contingent soon to arrive in Somalia has atpercent infection rate. The commander of the UN force inhas asked that the Zambianof whom he says have AIDS and are causing operational and moralereplaced at the end of its tour by troops from another couniry:he is skeptical that the UN will honor his request.^
The United States and other donorwilt have to takeleading and funding the international oversight of HIVensure the safest possMeenvironment for relief personnel^
Fatigue" Sets In...
The extent of critical humanitarian needs and the problems of addressing them arc affecting ihc international response. Over the past year, donors generally have become slower to respond, and contributions often have fallen short. Tor example:
Aid for Afghanistan lagged badly this year; ihc UN Secretary General's Special Representative reported in late June ihal onlyillionI.IX million appeal for the January lo September period had been pledged.
Are the Donors?
The European Community provideshumanitarian aid in addition to the aid provided by its members on an individual basis. Other West European and North American countries plus Japan contribute most of the personnel, supplies, and funds for humanitarian assistance, either unilaterally or tkrough UNand nongovernmentalThe share of funding varies with the situation: developed nations0 million in disaster relief to the former Yugoslavia as ofhe United States contributed4 million of the total. On the other hand, the United States has contributed about three-fourths of the funds for relief efforts Liberia.
What Do They Provide? In addition to food, medicine, and funds, donors provide mobile hospital units, shelter supplies, blankets, trucks, and
communications equipment. Russia and Ukraine have specialized In supplyingand civil transport and helicoptersontract basis at advantageous rates. Russian aircraft have supportedin Somalia and Cambodia; the Ukrainians have flown hundreds ofinto Armenia^
Stockpiles of emergency Items areby various governments and private relief organizations around the world. For example. Japan's International Relief Organization has storehouses in Japan. Singapore. Mexico, and Italy for rapid deployment to disaster sites. The UN Department of Humanitarian Assistance is promoting the worldwide register of such disaster
of early August this year, the Interna' lional Committee of the Red Cross's appeal for the former Soviet Union had yielded less than half of the amount requested.
The UN so far this year haj received commitments ofillion of6 million requested for Angola.
ith Tough Choices In Store The international relief system, already under severe strain, faces burgeoning demands in the future. The resources of the United States and other donors will be
spread more thinly, and donors will have to be more selective about which crises to address.
The decision of the international communiiy to respondpecific humanitarian crisis will depend on the accessibility of the popu-lalicn in need, the risks to relief personnel, and severity of the crisis, as well as the level of effort already being expended for other critical needs. As in theme dire situations in remote locations will beby donors. Other crises will receive widespread media attention that will
World Grain Supply
countries have suffered serious crop failures from droughts, floods, or other natural disastersn mostrequiring food relief, shortages have resulted from political or economicthat has disrupted Imports orwithin the country, particularly distribution of food to persons displaced by con'Hc!^
Although global production of grains, which provide human as well as animal sustenance, will probably decreasefrom the record levelsrain production will still be above the average for the past five years. Production of wheat andmain components of the human diet in mostlikely be higher than that2 andercent above the recent average.
Mosl countries with large increases in grain production had good rainfall this year, and their governments have raised crop prices and promoted irrigation to boost production. For example, wheat crops in most of the countriesand from Kazakhstan through the Middle
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East to parts of North Africa benefited from above-normal rainfalloreover, several of theseincluding Iran. Iraq, andhave vigorously promoted wheatlo decrease their dependency onDespite their production Increases, several of these countries will still have large deficits and will require imports or food aid.
Agricultural experts expect the largest proportional declines in food production lo occuriverse group of countries: Morocco, hitrought this year; Venezuela, whose economic disruption has curbed production; Somalia, where conflict has prevented planting of much cropland; and Easl European countries, subject to both drought and economic disruption. Most of the countries in3 production is likely to beercent or more below average will not experience food problems, however, because they can afford to increase imports or. In some cases, will still have surpluses for export.
our ability to estimate the scope of the crisis white increasing internationalto act. Still, somein areas that are less accessible or whereisbe considered too costly or complex to undertake large-scale relief efforts. j
Africa will continue to generateemergencies on an unparalleled scale. Despite progress toward peace in someand the end of the drought in the southern part of the continent. Africa still has most of the world's6three to four times that many
persons. Moreover. Africanon the whole arc the world'sand least able to cope with their emergencies:
More than half of the world's poorest countries arc found in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Africa hasngoing insurgencies,those in Rwanda and Mozambique where cease-fires are in force but rebels have not been disarmed.
The AIDS epidemic is spreading through all of Africa and straining its already feeble health care systems; ofeople worldwide infectedIVillion arc in Africa I
During the coming year, international aid and intervention will be necessary to stave off human catastrophes in parts of Africa. In addition to emergency shipments of food and medicine, the transition from war to peace in some areas will require assistance in refugee resettlement infrastructure repair, landmine removal, and support for demobilizedforces. I
The Horn: More Turmoil in Store Somalia. The massive international relief effort has ended the starvation, and some local councils arc beginning to function again. Nevertheless, instability inand random violence in the countryside make the recovery precarious. Most ofillion refugees and displaced persons in camps remain dependent on international assistance, and the majority of international reliefto leave by the earlier
not "clurncd. The security of food supplies and delivery is problematic.ontinued international effort, widespread hungcrand disease could
Sudan. The civil war in the south is creating humanitarian conditions as severe as those in Somalia last year. The intensifiedoffensive against the rebels makes the task of reachingillion southerners in need of humanitarianof whom are already at risk of starvation-even more difficult. Anillion people elsewhereisplaced in the transition zone between north andneed humanitarian assistance.re in danger of being caught in the fighting and may joinudanese refugees who already have fled to neighboring coun;Zaire and Uganda. I
Sudan has enough food to meet most of its needs but has provided only about half of the grain promised for relief in the south. The government suspects that relief efforts arc aiding the rebels: all sides have impeded the flow of aid. Khartoum wouldS-or UN-led relief intervention in the south and would likely stage guerrilla attacks on foreign military forces and aircraft.
Meanwhile, locust infestations in both Somalia and Sudan have become serious and arc likely lo aggravate the food crises in both countries. The political situaiion in northern Somalia precludes international eradication efforts there; in Sudan. UN sources say the locust infestation will worsen if current wcaihcr conditions persist, (u)
Africa: Drought Ends, But Peace Elusive
illion people in this region arc in danger of starvation. j
Angola.illion are at riskesultore destructive phase ofyear civil war. Relief organizations havesupplies in-country, but logisticand attacks on food convoys and relief (lights will contribute lo even greater starvation; deaths per day may now exceed several hundred. The UN and other relief organizations, however, have little reliable data on the location and numbers of people in need.b
Mozambique. The signing of peace accords has facilitated relief deliveries toillion persons who depend on aid.food deliveries are still subject to interdiction by armed bands. Ample rains this year have helped improve the localbut. by yearend. surplus stocks ofdonated and locallybe expended, and additional shipments will be needed. Moreover,security conditionsuinedwill hamper resettlement efforts that arc slated lo begin late this yearillion refugees, several millionpersons, and atoldiers. Until the former combatants arereakdown in security still could lead to an acute humanitarian crisis.
and Rwanda. If the accords hold, thecommunity will be called upon to help resettleefugees and moreisplaced persons in Liberia andillion displacedandefugees in Rwanda. Chances of renewed conflict in both countries remain high, however.j
Sierra Leone. More thanercent of the population has been displaced or has left the countryesult of fighting inlready arc dependent on feeding programs,. most of whom are in Liberia, are expected to return from neighboring countries, and upore are internally displaced but not currently receiving aid. The government seems to have the upper hand against the rebels, but the end oT the insurgency is far from certain.
Zaire. Three years of political impasse between the President and his opposition has ledreakdown in central control. The collapse of basic services, ethnic strife, and looting and violence by unpaid soldiers have reduced lhe availability of food.and disease are ai high levels in lhe capital, and low food reserves in all provinces make localized famine in urban areas likely over ihe next three lo six months. Theso far has displaced. If substantial portions of Zaire'sillion population begin to flee across borders, as some already have, neighboring Angola. Zambia. Rwanda. Uganda, and Sudan could not cope with the influx]
Possible Elsewhere, But Conflict More Likely
Rwanda and Liberia. Recent peace accords arc allowing supplies to flow to populations dependent on international relief in Liberia
After Africa, the world's most acute humanitarian crises arc concentrated in the former Yugoslavia.illion people.
to the United Nations High Com-missionerfor Refugeesrc in need ofof them in Bosnia.
Long-term subsistence on minimal foodlimited medical care, severe shortages of water and sanitation supplies, and damageousing have left the Muslim population in Bosnia weakened, more susceptible to disease, and progressively less capable of surviving bouts of hunger and cold. The infrastructure in central and eastern Bosnia is severely damaged, and many towns there are dependent on the humanitarian relief effort. Relief deliveries fall short of demand and arc hampered by insufficient resources, lighting and denial of access, poor road conditions, bureaucratic hurdles, and bad wcathcrj
If War Continues...
The impact of continued conflict will be more devastating this winter than anything wc have seen thus far. Tens of thousands could perish from disease, hunger, and cold. If fighting continues as we expect, the Bosnian population in need will be double that ofillion people. Total relief requirements during the next six months will be anetrictolights at maximumercent of which will be food.^
Food reserves in Bosnia have been largelyarsh winter thislast year's unusually mildmake
' Byihewuk ton* or tclic' wpptle* Into Bcnnia during iheonth* of thi* year; InJ. UNHCR0 metrict he largcM finite monthly ihiprocnt io dtic IU
Retidemi af Sarajevo line up torn tw r> heir watert flowingte ftj
relief deliveries throughout much of Bosnia more difficult al the same time that humani tarian needs arc highest.
nd If the Fighting Slops
The humanitarian outlook would improve, bul needs wouldubstantial relief
operation. Requirements could total as highT of aid over the next six months. Planning figures by the UNHCR suggest lhat such annormal relief agencycost0 million. The amount of aid would reach this level as significant population displacements occur, including thewithin Bosnia of as manyuslims from Croat- and Serb-controlled areas to the central Muslim core; of0 Croats to western Bosnia;00 Serbs to other parts of Bosnia. In addition,uslim refugees probably would return from Croatia to Bosnia, as would about the same number of Serb refugees from Serbia itself-|
Croatia. The UNHCR listsdisplaced Croatians and moreefugees fromneed of assistance, (u)
Kosovo. If ethnic fighting expanded into Kosovo, we would expect thatlbanian refugees initially will Row into Albania and Macedonia, and many more would flee as the fighting spread.I
Conflicts along the southern flank of the former Soviet Union will generate acute needs for humanitarian assistance. Most regimes are less stable lhan theyear ago. Virtually the entire Caucasus region, for example, is embattled or under blockade, and disputes among Tajikistan's clans and regional factions continue to impede efforts to provide relief and resettle rc'^ees.B
Conditions in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia arc worse than last year. Azerbaijan's war with its ethnic Armenian-dominated enclave, Nagorno-Karabakh, has escalated since Junearabakh-Armenlan offensive, sendingzeris toward the Iranian border.burdenedillion Afghandelivering relief supplies and establishing displaced person camps on the Azerbaijan side of the border in an effort to prevent the Azeris from crossing into Iran; Turkey is providing funds for other camps. Bakuprovide for itsillion refugees and displaced persons while itosing war, struggles toeadership crisis, and tries to cope with regional secessionist movements in the north and south. Wethe fighting this year alone hasmoreeople. Living mditions can be expected to worsen as :ts in and food supplies dwindle.
is all but cut off from the oulsidc world by civil strife in Georgia and an Azerbaijani blockade. During what is expected to be its second conscculive harsh winter. Armenia will face shortages of food, oil, water, and electricity. Turkey will restrict use of its territory for delivery of relief supplies to Armenia as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continues, and airlifts will be necessary to sustain the population. j
The ethnic and civil conflicts in Abkhazia and western Georgia will continue, withcivilossibility. Tbilisi's access routes north lo Russia and west lo Black Sea
are tenuous and subject to frequent disruption. Emergency deliveries of food andaddition to current aid in thebe needed during the winter.
Territorial and ethnic conflicts arc also brewing in the North Caucasus region ofthe republics of Ingushetia. Checheaia. and North Ossetia. Limited local warfare in those areas over the
next several months Is likely and will produce refugees who will need support. Conflict in the North Caucasus will hinder supply routes into the entire Caucasus region. |
More0 Tajik refugees have been repatriated from Afghanistan to southern Tajikistan, but efforts to reintegrate them are failing and the humanitarian situation there probably will worsen. The population of theby more0 displaced persons and refugees returning froma winter of famine if relief routes are not kept open. By October, snows will cut off much of the region.the impoverished Gorno-Badakhshan and wealthier Leninabad regions are both operating independently from Dushanbe. The lack of central government control hinder relief and resettlement efforts/
Ethnicin Afghanistan and,maller scale, in Sricontinue to generate humanitarian needs in South Asia. Conflicts will keepillion people dislocated and dependent on humanitarian assistance. Pakistan willdependent on international support as long as it hosts significant numbers of Afghan refugees
In Afghanistan, fighting in Kabul and along the Afghan-Tajik border, as well as guerrilla attacks throughout the country, hasover the past year and will displace more Afghans, hinder refugee repatriation, and impede the delivery of international aid. Without emergency relief,illionrefugees or internallysuffer from food and
fuel shortages, inadequate water andand epidemics.illion Afghans are internallyillion more arc refugees in Pakistan, andillion are in Iran. In addition, at least0 Tajiks fled to northernafter civil war erupted in Tajikistan last year.
The job of delivering emergency aid in Afghanistan has become more treacherous. Factional fighting and lack of centralcontrol have heightened the threat to aid workers. Relief operations staged in Afghanistan rely heavily on air transport, which is vulnerable to Afghan guerrillas armed with antiaircraft weapons. Overland transport to isolated populations requires the cooperation of local warlords.
Elsewhere in the region, the civil war in Sri Ijsnka that pits the Sinhalese majority against Tamil separatists will continue to inflict hardships on the populations in the north and east of the island.eople have been dislocated by the conflict, and0 refugees remain in India.
Middle East-North Africa
Iraq will be the only country in this region likely to generate substantia) emergency humanitarian nerds unrelated to natural disasters during the next year. The Kurdish population will face harsh conditions this winter: the number of Kurds requiringhas grownillion over the past year, and the Kurds have become even more dependent on international
help. Inealth crisis is developing in parts of the North where the lack ofwas cut off by is curtailing access to safe water]
esult of Baghdad's ongoing cmbajj of the north, the UN estimates that overercent of Kurdish food. fuel, and medical needs must come from territory that is not controlled by Baghdad. Shortfalls in the funding of relief agencies, harassment by the Iraqi Government, harsh weather that would close convoy routes,ossible end to cooperation fromwhich the aidcomrjnV'Tirthreaten relief efforts this winit
hiaSm themarshesow-levellikely to be al risk of severe food shortages over the next few months. Baghdad continues to dryubstantia) part of the marshlands where the Shia live, destroying their traditional means of
We cannot verify the extent of acute needs in southern Iraq. Baghdad denies the UN and other relief organizations access to the area. The only route for delivering relief would be through Iran and would Require smugglinj supplies pasi Iraqi troop
The region is expected to have its usual share of emergencies stemming from naturalbul the number of people dependent on emergency aid forandcontinue to decline as noted in last year's Estimate. Cambodian refugees have returned home from ThailandesultN-brokered peaceIn addition, improved conditions in Vietnam arc encouraging many Vietnamese refugees to repatriate from asylum in Hong Kong. Indonesia. Malaysia, and elsewhere.
otrrty amiaitioon to Iht baat^uiltllnt busines oui couUI again ipark mattivr mitrailm to tht Vniied Stain. iy(f
will need food assistance during the next year as moreecently returned refugees run out of UN rations and Cambodians try iorop without adequate irrigation or fertilizers. Low-level fighting and banditry will pose hazards for donors distributing assistance outside the capital. Moreover, the Khmer Rouge could return lo more intense warfare thai would once again displace large numbers of people, send refugees fleeing across borders, and dramatically increase the need for
Mosl humanitarian needs at present can be handled through routine aid programs.economic conditions and political repression in Haiti and Cuba, however, could bring calls for emergency relief and stimulate sudden and massive migration that would necessitate direct US assistance.
strife and ethnic warfare around the world are putting civilian populations at risk of death from starvation and disease- Tlteountries or areas below have either ongoing humanitarian crises that are expected to persist through next year or haw strong prospects of such emergencies occurring over tlte next year.
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