CUBA TRENDS FOR JANUARY 1994

Created: 1/1/1994

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

DOMESTIC POLICY

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message welcoming officialo hold talks with selected emigres, expressing hope that it will lead evenraally to "real internal dialogue.'* thai seems unlikely at this point, but havana was undoubtedly relieved thai the church chose not to repeat the call it made in september for economic and pohocal reform.eparate, less publicized statement. havana anabishop jaime onega reaffirmed the right of the church to comment on politics, noting that christ bad done so and was put to death for it.

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emigration highest0

inubans reached the united states by sea.ear-long trend of increased illegal migration. tbe monthly figure was more than doubleho arrived the previous december but less thanecorded in november.ade tbe tripoughlyercent above tbe iota)hich until now had ibe highest number of migrants since the manei boatliftv

guantanamo refugee figures largest in decades

the naval base tooksylum seekers inigure unsurpassed since, up fromn novembererebe past december. tbe latest arrivals pushed ibe total3 tosecond highest ever, exceeded only byho reached the base

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With Defections

The government has had occawo recentlyir both udes of ra policy toward Cubans abroad The aefecooo ofhiaa andther members otrtsuerto Rico In December elicikxJ the iradinCrial hard Imc. Conrado Martinez, preildent of the National Sports. Physical Education, and Recreation Institutr, claimed Cuban athletics were bears off without fakers, wavercn. and auton" Fidel Castro was more remained,peech on the 'immense majority" who returned borne "despite all theffers, and enticements made in these difficultoping to reduce embarrauBig JcfecOora. Havana has made some accommodation for those wbo could easily live bcaet overseas. Certain athletes and cultural figures, for instance, are being allowed to spend more time outside Cuba. Ordinary emigrants have beenirtual blanket pardon as part of an official campaign to boost remittances. Having once ditmnvd elites aa "wrenn^bemtdia no* attribute their night largely k> r* oocuues H

The tenor of Havara'1 reaction to individual escapes is often Dedhe prominence they receive in the United States. Seeking to avert unfavorable publicity when two children died aboard rifts bound for Florida tnuban newspaperamiliar Pine, blaming Washington's "hypocritical and opportunist Immigration policy, which stimulates illegal departures while It delays and restricts normal visa procedures.'" The case of Reel Castro's nacsaJ daughter. Anna Fernandez Revucha. may prove to be aa exception, provoking Utile official comment in Cuba despite extensive international coverage of her arrival In the United States. The Cuban leader once declared himself "allergic to gossipnd neither be nor the domestic press discus* details of his private hfc. Ordinary Cubans are welt aware of Fernandez Revue! ta. however, as foreign radio stations heamedjjacked the news of her escape almost immediately

The Cuban Government has extensive experience with defections and takes the majority in stndc The an pact of virtually all is limitedew days of unwelcome international attention, coupled with speculation about regime stability and the extent of popular disaffection. Castro referred in December to Tatter examples erf defectors and inn tors" and to the "increased number of pessimisu who desert andut be is unlikely to be moved by any of it, given bis deep-seaied contempt for those he believes have bent under pressure Castro has long been estranged from bis daughtero was the subject* ^ne' media tap rouban doctor living in Europe said be badetter from bet seeking his help to leave ale

island. The most interesting clement of Alma'sarranged by the same exile group that bankrolled the return flight of Alt Force defector Orestes Lorenzo u> retrieve hisearber useisguisepanish passport to foot Cuban nnuuRraooc officials WimDcehUtg to gain from appearing spiteful, Castro quickly agreed to let AJtna's young daughter>Mn ber In the United States.

In Brief...

SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

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