CUBA TRENDS FOR JANUARY 1994

Created: 1/1/1994

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SECRCT NOK^NOQWTKACTOllOON

NOCQFTRACT ORCON SBCRET

T ORCON

message welcoming official pi-is to bold talks with selected emigres, expressing hope that it will lead evemaaflyreal internal dialogue.'* Thai seems unlikely ai this point, but Havana was undoubtedly relieved thai the church chose not to repeat the call It made in September for economic and political reform.eparate, less publicized statement. Havana Archbishop Jaime Ortega reaffirmed the right at the church to comment on polincj, noting that Christ had done so and was put lo death for it.

1SL.

"ioo-

240

ill* 1lu

t6 "Li 72 74 74

Emigration Highest0

Inubans reached the United States by sea.ear-long trend of increased Illegal migration. The monthly figure was more than doubleho arrived the previous December but less thanecorded in November.ade (be tripoughlyercent above the total1 which until now had ibe highest number of migrants since the Manel boaUifttggl

Guantanamo Refugee Figures Largest In Decades

The Naval Base tooksylum seekers hiigure unsurpassed since, up fromn Novemberereie past December. The latest arrivals pushed ibe total3 tosecond highest ever, exceeded only byho reached me base

NOFORN NOCOWfRACT ORCON

With Defections The government has had occasion rrceotly to air Eodi sides of ia pobcy toward Cabana abroad. Tbe defection ofthletes andtor memben oftrong ^MiB dele Ration in Puerto Rico in December dialed UK tramncnal bard line. Conrado Martinez, president of the National Spans, Physical Education, and Recreation institute, claimed Cuban athletics *ot bctscr off withoutidel Castro was more restrained,peech on the "immense majority'" who returned home "despite nil (be promises, offers, and end cements made in these difficultoping to reduce embarrassing defections. Havana tas nude icme accannxxlaJicn fa Oxy*coiid cauly Irve better overseas. Ceruon athletes and cultural figures, for instance, ate being allowed to spend more tunc outside Cuba Ordinary emigrants have beenirtual blanket pardon as part of an official campaign to boostHaving oncexiles ashe media now attribute their fhshi largelyconomics.M

The tenor of Havana's reaction to individual escapei is often tied to the prominence they receive in the United Suits. Seeking to awt unfavorable publicity when rwochiktrm died aboard rafts bound foruban newspaperamiliar tune, blaming Washington's "hypocritical and opportunist Immigration policy, which stimulates illegal departures while it delays and restricts normal viahe case of Rdd Castro'> natural daughter. Allna Femaadex Revucita may prove to be an exception, provoking link official comment in Cuba despite extensive international coverage of her arrival in (he United States. The Cuban leader once declared hunself "allergic to gossipnd neither be nor the docoesiic press discuss details of bit private life Ordinary Cubans are weal aware of Fernandez Revucita. however, as foreign radio stations neamedbaefced the news of her escape almost immediaielyH

Tbe Cuban Government has extensive experience wtu defections and takes the majority in stride. Tbe impact of virtually all is limitedew days of unwelcome international attention, coupled with speculation about regime liability and the extent of popular dualfecrjco. Castro referred in December to Twier examples of detectors and uaJiors" and to the "increased number of pessimist* who desert andut be is unlikely to be moved by any of it. given bis deep-seated contempt for those be believes have bent under pressure Casrro has long been estranged from bis daughter Allan, who was tbe subjectrief media flap inuban doctor living in Europe said be badetter from bet seeking his help lo leave the

island. The most interesting element of Alma'sarranged by the same exile group that bankrolled the return flight of Air Force defector Orestes Lorenzo to retrieve bisearher useisguisepanish passport to fool Cuban iminigration officials. With nothing to gain from appearing spiteful, Castro quickly agreed to let Allna's young daughter join bcr in the United States.

NOFORN

Original document.

---

---