LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 22 DECEMBER 1993.

Created: 12/22/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA

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1. HAITI: MORE PROPOSALS FOR NEGOTIATIONS

'FORECEMBER

ARISTIDE AND THE ARMY GENERAL STAFF ARE CONSIDERING NEW INITIATIVES FOR NEGOTIATIONS. AI THOU KM EACH SIDE IS LIKELY TO RESIST THE OTHER'S PROPOSALS. IB

THE INFLUENTIAL MEVS BUSINESS FAMILY IS ALSO PROPOSING TO INVITE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR. RELIGIOUS GROUPS. AND POLITICAL PARTIES TO PARTICIPATE EW ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS IN HAITI. PRESUMABLY AT THE MILITARY'S BEHEST. THE MEVS' PROPOSAL ET AGENDA AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHELVES SUCH KEY PROVISIOHS OF THE EARLIER ACCORD AS THE DEPLOYMENT OF UN MILITARY TRAINERS AND A DEFINITE DATE FOR ARISTIDE'S RETURN. THE MEVS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT. IF NEGOTIATIONS MAKE PROGRESS, ARMY CHIEF CEDRAS MIGHTND POLICE CHIEF FRANCOIS MIGHT ACCEPTRANSFER.

CEDRAS ANO HIS ADVISERS APPARENTLY ACCEPT THE IDEA OF A RECONCILIATION CONFERENCE I THEY REPORTEDLY THINK THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS WILLING TO PUSH ARISTIDE TOHARDORKABLE SOLUTION. ARMY HARDLINERS, HOWEVER, APPARENTLY STILL OTE IN THE LEGISLATURE TO STRIP ARISTIDE HIS EXECUTIVE POWERS UNLESS NEGOTIATIONS PRODUCE RESULTS.

COMMENT: FOR ARISTIDE, AN ATTEMPT TO REVIVE NEGOTIATIONS PROBABLY LOOKS LIKEAY TO REGAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT AND TO DEFLECT MALVAL'S RECENT CRITICISM. ARISTIDE ALMOST CERTAINLY HILL CALL THE MEVS' PROPOSAL PART OF THE MILITARY'S EFFORTS TO STALL HIS RESTORATION. ANY PROMISES BY CEDRAS OF MILITARY CONCESSIONS <OULD

SUGGEST HE HOPES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HILL LIFT SANCTIONS ANO BACK AWAY FROM TOTAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GOVERNORS ISLAND ACCORD IM RESPONSE. IF TALKS DEVELOP, THE MILITARY PROBABLY HILL TRY TO USE THEM TO OVERNMENT UNDER THEIR CONTROL AND TO PRECLUDE ARISTIDE'S RETURN;.THE GENERAL STAFF PROBABLY ALREADY IS COURTING CENTRIST FIGURES.

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