LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 16 DECEMBER 1993.

Created: 12/16/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA

CONTENTS

I. HAITI: MILITARY TAKING POLITICAL INITIATIVE 2.

1. HAITI: MILITARY TAKING POLITICAL INITIATIVE

THE MILITARY AND ITS ALLIES ON THE RIGHJ ARE POISED TO CAPITALIZE ON THE POLITICAL VACUUM THAT IS DEVELOPING AS_A RESULT OF PRIME MINISTER HALVAL'S RESIGNATION |

CEDRAS, BIAMBY. TO PROMOTE

THEIR INDIVIDUAL AMBITIONS. AHC01SESISTED CEDRAS'S EFFORTS TO CQNT Rul PBaPH'S ACTIVITIES AND HAS FACED DOHN REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDERS MHO HAVE CHALLENGED FRAPH LEADERS. BIAMBY. IN AN ATTEMPT TO COUNTER FRANCOIS'S INFLUENCE, HAS

ARMED FORCES LEADERS INCREASINGLY ARC TURNING TO RIGHTIST GROUPS TO PUSH FOR AN END TO THE POLITICAL STALEMATE. THE GENERAL STAFF HAS

AGREED" INCREASE THE FUNDING OF THE RISING FAB-RICHT PARTYAPH_ TO STRENGTHEN IT FOR ANY FUTURE ELECTION,

THE INTENSIFIED MANEUVERING OF MILITARY LEADERS PROBABLY INDICATES THAT THEY ARE INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY HAVE STYMIED ARISTIDE'S RETURN TO HAITI. AT LEAST FOR NOM. THE ALLIANCE OF CONVENIENCE BE THE EN KEY FIGURES IN THE ARMED FORCES AHD RIGHTIST POLITICAL LEADERS PROBABLY HILL CRUMBLE AS THE STRUGGLE FOR POHER INTEHSIFIES. SOME MILITARY LEADERS MAY STILL HOPE FOROLUTIOH THAT GAINS US AND UN APPROVAL. BUT RIGHTIST EXTREMISTS PROBABLY HILL PRESS HARDER FOR AH AUTHORITARIAN GOVERNMENT. ATTEMPTS TO FLEE TO THE US ARE LIVELY TO INCREASE AS ECONOMIC HARDSHIP AND VIOLENCE MOUNT.

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