LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 12 NOVEMBER 1993.

Created: 11/12/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

OUST CEDRAS, ARMY CHIEF OF BUT ARE RELUCTANT TO ACT. OF BIAMBY AND FRANCOIS AND KEY UNITS. THEY BELIEVE CEDRAS CORPS OF POTENTIAL RIVALS,A ILY NILL DESTROY

SEVERAL COLONELS MOULD LIKE HIEF FRANCOIS THEY ARE AFRAID RALLY SUPPORT FROM PLANS TO PURGE THE SENIOR OFFICER THEY ARE HORRIED THAT THE POLITICAL THE ARMED FORCES AS AN INSTITUTION.

COMMENT: THE COLONELS' ASSESSMENT OF THEIR POSITION PROBABLY IS CORRECT; FRANCOIS RETAINS STRONG INFLUENCE OVER KEY UNITS. EVEN IF THESE DISSIDENTS WERE TO OUST CEDRAS AND THE OTHERS. THEY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO COMPLY WITH ALL THE PROVISIONS OF THE GOVERNORS ISLAND ACCORD. OVER TIME, NEW MILITARY LEADERS PROBABLY WOULD BOW TO PRESSURE FROM THE ENLISTED MEN TO OPPOSE ARISTIDE AND SUPPRESS THE LEFT.

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