THIS IS A COMBINED HESSAGE HHNHHMMmiii/
IAT IN AMERICA
04 NOVEMBER
DUVALT GROUP HAS PUBLICLY CALLED FOR GENERAL AND TOMORROW TO PROTEST THE INTERNATIONAL EMBARGOGROUP HANTS TO INTIMIDATE
POPULAC^nTDTmriMTZETrpToS^TTrjSLANNED CONSTITUTIONAL COUP BY ARMY CHIEF CEDRAS AND OTHER RIGHTISTS.
COMMENT: THE MILITARY STILL DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE WORKED OUT ALL THE DETAILS FOR A COUP. IT MAY BE SUCCUMBING TO INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE TO POSTPONE TEMPORARILY ITS PLANSONSTITUTIONAL COUP, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO JETTISON ITS SCHEME TOOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE AGAINST PRIME MINISTER MALVAL. MILITARY LEADERS ANDRI ST IDE LEGISLATORS ALMOST CERTAINLY SEE INVOKING ARTICLEF THE CONSTITUTION AND SWEARING IN SUPREME COURT JUSTICE JONASSAINT AS TEMPORARY PRESIDENT AS THE ONLY SURE WAY TO FORECLOSE ARISTIDE'S OPTION TO RETURN.
CAPUTO TRYING TO RESTART NEGOTIATIONS
GOVERNORS
UN SPECIAL ENVOV CAPUTO TENTATIVELY RESCHEDULED REVIVING ACCORD FOR TODAY, BUT AN AIDE UNTIL TOMORROW OR SATURDAY. DEPUTIES PRESIDENT JOSEPH SA MEETINGS IF BOTH THE ARMY AND THE MALVAL GOVERNMENT IF MALVAL HAS SPECIFICALLY MAHDATED TO KEGOTI AT E OH
MALVAL HAS AGREED TO ATTEND ONLY IF ARISTIDE RETRACTS THE CONDITIONS HE IMPOSED ON NEGOTIATIONS ECENT LETTER TO CAPUTO--SPECIFICALLY. THE RESIGNATION OF THE ENTIRE HIGH COMMAND, INCLUDING CEDRAS AND POLICE CHIEF FRANCOIS. THE ARMY HAS AGREED TO PARTICIPATE BUT HAS RAISED SOME UNSPECIFIED CONDITIONS.
COMMENT: HHILE THE MILITARY MAY ATTEHO THE MEETIHG, THE LEADERSHIP PROBABLY BELIEVES HAITI CAN HEATHER CURRENT SANCTIONS. THEY ALSO PROBABLY DOUBT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS THE MILL TO FOLLOH THROUGH ON HIDE HING THE EMBARGO. ARISTIDE PROBABLY HILL NOT BACKTRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIS DEMANDS i HE PROBABLY FEARS THAT MALVAL MIGHT GIVE GROUND TO MILITARY DEMAMDS. ESULT, ANY TALKS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS.
MILITARY DISCONTENT
KEY ADVISERS
TO FRANLUlb IftlLWI LT Fit I HUH t Ii '- jj'.'AHAK TODEPARTURE. THE PARTICIPANTSTHAT CEDRAS
HAD BECOMEOLITICAL LIABILITY AHO 'flTTTTWrW SHOULD BEFOUNO TO RETIRE. HIM REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS OF THE AMNESTYH. m
'THE FAILURE SO FAR TO MONTH OFAMALVAL'S GOVERNMENT ; THE FIHANCE MIHISTER"AS
INDICATED THAT THE MILITARY HILL BE PAID HlAST IN HIS FIRST PUBLIC APPEARANCE SINCE CTOBER, YESTERDAY DENIED THAT THERE ARE DIVISIONS IN THE ARMY.
COMMENT: ABRAHAM, A FORMER COMMANDER IN CHIEF, HAS TIES TO KEY CIVILIANS AT BOTH ENDS OF THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AND IS GENERALLY REGARDED AS A FORCE FOR MODERATION. UNEASE AMONG THE RANK AND FILE SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, IF THEY RECEIVE THEIR
THE CRISIS ANO ALSO OVER HOW LONG THE ARMED FORCES CHIEF CAN RETAIN
Original document.
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