LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 25 OCTOBER 1993.

Created: 10/25/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

contents

1. haiti: developments

AITXl developments

is confident

police chief francois is still taking

pREvTNTTT7TE^?TT'jtfs- agaJnst the possibility that aristide may

return ' " v in october. although he believes it impossible. francoisans to implement CURFEnS Af TER the JOTm TC KEEP the APpWTanCE of calm and control

7f?

MIGRATION THREAT

DIRECTOR OF THE PORT-AU-PRINCE PORT FACILITIES. MAX PAUL. SAYS HE HILL NOT LET SHIPS OF ANY FOREIGN CflvfSNXfNT fjflCK. INCLUDING US COAST GUARD CUTTERS REPATRIATING MIGRANTS.

HE SAID ALL SUCH SHIPS HILL BE MET BY

COMMENT: PAUL.LOSE ALLY OF FRANCOISEY PLAYER IN THE DEMONSTRATIONS AGAIHST THE USS HARLAN COUNTY, APPARENTLY IS RETALIATING FOR THE FREEZING OF HIS PERSONAL ASSETS BY THE US. HIS THREAT PROBABLY DOES NOT APPLY TO OTHER REPATRIATION FACILITIES. FRANCOIS, UHO IS TRYING TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION, PROBABLY HILL PRESS PAUL TO COOPERATE HITH US REPATRIATION EFFORTS. NONETHELESS. IF PAUL'S INTENTIONS BECOME PUBLIC. SOME WOULD-BE MIGRANTS MAY PUT TO SEA IN THE BELIEF THAT THE US WILL BE UNABLE TO REPATRIATE N. IFOAST GUARD VESSEL ACTUALLY IS PREVENTED FROM_DOCK IN;. A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF HAITIANS MIGHT TRY TO LEAVE.

CEDRAS STILL TALKING

ARMY CHIEF CEDRAS MET WITH PRIME MINISTER MALVAL ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO REACH A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS. GOVERNMENT AIDES SAID CEDRAS REITERATED HIS PROMISE U3 RESIGN BUT DID NOT SPECIFY HHFN OR UNDER WHAT CONDITIONS.)

COMMENT: CEDRAS. ATINIMUM. ALMOST CERTAINLY REPEATED HIS DEMAND THAT AN AMNESTY LAW BE PASSED BEFORE HE STEPS DOWN. HE PROBABLY IS COUNTING ON THE CURRENT LACK OF LEGISLATIVE COHESION TO FORESTALL ANY PROGRESS ON AMNESTY. FRANCOIS APPARENTLY HAS NOT INVOLVED IN THE MEETING.

ANOTHER PLAN

A GROUP OF GENERALLY PROM IL1 TAR Y LEGISLATORS ON A NEW PROPOSAL TD RESOLVE THE POLITICAL CRISIS-

CALLS FOR SIMULTANEOUS^

AMNESTY AND POLICE LAWS. INCLUSION IN THE CABINET OF "DIVERSE POLITICAL ND THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS ONCE CEDRAS AGREES TO STEP DOWN. LEGISLATORS SAY THEY WILL CONVENE TUESDAY TO VOTE ON THE AMNESTY AND POLICE LAWS. ALTHOUGH IT TAKES EXPLICIT JABS AT HIM, UN ENVOY CAPUTO HAS DESCRIBED THE PLAN AS "VERY POSITIVE." F)

COMMENT: IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE PLAN HAS CEDRAS'S BLESSING. ON THE SURFACE IT APPEARS TO FAVOR RIGHTWING ELEMENTS; THE PHRASE

DIVERSE POLITICAL FACTIONS" PROBABLYUPHEMISM FOR HARDLIN

STS. ARISTIDE HAS AVOIDED REJECTING THE PLAN niJTRIG"T, BUT

HAS TOLD HALVAl THAT HE OBJECTS TOhNLbllr^PiT^TrnCE LEGISLATION BECAUSE HE DCiS NOT TRUST THE LEGISLATORS TO KEEP ANY DEAL TO LINK THE THO BILLS. HE ALSOINTED OUT THAT THE LEGISLATURE IS UNLIKELY TO PULL ITSELF TOGETHER FOR ANY QUICK ACTION ON THE PROPOSAL.

Original document.

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