CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AOBNCY
7
SUBJECT: : SECURITY. COHD1TIGSS IN
THE PROBLEM
To estimato the likelihood of incidents vhich would endanger President Johnson during his visit to Ciudad Juarez onctober VyC
COWCLUSIOH .
We believe that the Mexican security services will manage to keep untoward incidentsininum and that the risks entailed in President
DISCLSSIOfl
between the Mexican and US governments areand President Johnson lb personally popular in Mexico. Tho
for this visit is, moreover, propitious. Tho -jcreaoniea In which President Johnson and President Diaz Ordos will take part nark the amicable settlement of the Ions-standing Charf tal border disputea settlement which returns to Mexico certain territory in the Cludsd Juarez-El Paso area.
political situation In Mexico is considerably, sore stableir. stoat Latin American countries. The Institutional(PRI)irtual monopoly over nationalocalonly Is the PRI effective in maintaining stability-generally, but it
la also an important means for facilitating aocurrty for visiting foreign dignitaries, and for President Ouetavo Diaz Ordaz during his publicin various parts of the country. At such times, the party organites an appropriate popular reception; when travel by motorcade is involved, it lines the streets with its swashers and those of its youth vine.
he Mexican security forces are tough and reasonably oopnetont. The Presidential Guard, the unit responsible for seeing to the safety of the Mexican President anywhere in the country,rack outfit. Moreovor,
C SEORET t
Mexican legal pro.edures do not Inhibit the police from detaining asor suspected trouble-Bakers as they consider necessary tosafeguards. Hiring President Johnson's visit to Mexicohe planning of the top Mexican aecurity officials and theOf nenmires carried out by tlie security forces were veilDiaz Ordaz him)elf vbs responsible for such
arrangementa when he was Minister ofend ho continues
to take an active interest In security natter*.
fc. There are, ofumber of anti-US elements In Mexico. Mexico City has longaven for political exiles from other countries,CooBunlsts and leftist extreaiists but also Including ant1-Castro Cubans. The Mexican Government is confident of its ability to control such extremist groups, and maintain" surveillance over the activities of some of them. There is the possibility, however, particularly since the Mexican press has already carried stories about President Johnson's planned visit,ew of those people will go to Ciudad Juarez, to try to createor otheri^^^
5- Ciudad Juarezide-open border town of several hundred thejsandunber of enti-Yankee groups. These are small,
The most recent Mexican 'censusave the population. It has since grown rapidly, ard present estimates varyCO to
( ttmmf- (
however, and not notably aggresBlve. Among then are the local unit of the Mexican Communist Party, which probably haa no nore thanctivehapter of the Popular Sociallet Party, which has fever, and the Civic Daorctatlclnuacule front group which has joined then inagainst the US role In Vietnam. The leftists most likely to attempt agitation or demonstrationsinority group among the students at the Ochool of Agricur.ti're.
6. The local authorities Know the Identities of the leaders of ell these groups; most will likely be detained or warned before the visit. The Ciudad Juarez police force Is not of the same quality as that in Mexico City, but It has leftist elements coved, is accustomed to dealing with rough customers of whatever stripe, and usuallyine on ary local citizens who might be dangerous. f the uniformed police have been assigned special duty for the time of the -ls't, and plalnclothesmen will hewith the crowd.
7- Mexico's Minister of Defense is in overall ccexaand of all security forces during President Johnson's visit; the Federal Security police are in charge of the security preparations. Army units willajor part. The military unit normally assigned to Ciudad Juarez is the First Infantry Battalion,trjng. attalion of the Presidential Guard hasbeer, dispatched to supplement this force, and an additional infantry bat tat ion from Mexico City la to move in soon.
8. Ue therefore anticipateubstantial force of security personnel will be provided, and that the security arrangements will be effective as they apply to Controlling groups and organised activities. One may not, of course; rule out the possibility of an assassination attempt by some irtfivldual. sychopathanatic, who could be Mexican, American, Or any other nationality. This possibility is of particular concern- because of the physical circumstances In which the President will be exposed to crowds while driving in an open car down
Original document.
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