VIEWS (DELETED) CONCERNING FIDEL CASTRO AND THE PROSPECTS FOR REVOLUTION IN LAT

Created: 12/28/1967

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

central intelligence agency

-^tt^ Intelligence Information Cable

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THIS IS An'InFORMATION he PORT. NOT FINALLY EVALUATES INTELLigEnCC

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muni5rty of venezuela; and cuban, chinese , and soviet thkorii of revolution.

state: no distribution except to thomas l. hughes to dia: exclusive.for general carroll

to nmcc/mc: exclusive for army acsi, general yarborouge; navy dni, admiral fluckey; air force afcin, general thomas

to nsa: exclusive for general carter

to fbi: for mr. s. j. papich

SUMMARY:

circumstances are not ripe for armed

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APPRO VED FOR7

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ANYWHERE IN LATIN AMERICA. CUBAN INTERFERENCE IN LATIN AMERICA IS SELF-DEFEATING BECAUSE IT DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE VARYING CIRCUMSTANCES IN EACH COUNTRY, IT SEEKS TO ASSERT CONTROL OVER INDIGENOUS REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS, AND REFLECTS THE CUBAN REVOLUTIONARY EXPERIENCE, WHICH IS NOT APPLICABLE TO THE REST OF LATIN AMERICA. CASTRO'S EFFORTS HAVE 3EEN MARKED BY FAULTY PLANNING AND POOR EXECUTION AND HAVE BEEN DAMAGING TO LATIN AMERICAN REVOLUTIONARY ACTIVITIES. THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VENEZUELA HAS SHIFTED FROM ARMED STRUGGLE TO POLITICAL STRUGGLE. IT WILL PARTICIPATE IN8 ELECTIONS AND HOPESA FEW YEARS TOOALITION GOVERNMENT. IT REJECTS THE CUBAN SUPPORTED TERRORIST ACTIVITY OF TEE DISSIDENT COMMUNIST GUERRILLA LEADER, DOUGLAS BRAVO. WHILE THE CHINESE AND CUBAN THEORIES OF REVOLUTION BOTE CALL FOR IMMEDIATE ARMED STRUGGLE, THE SOVIET THEORY IS MORE FLEXIBLE. THE SOVIET LINE CHANGES ACCORDING TO'THE DEMANDS OF THE SITUATIONIVEN COUNTRYIVEN TIME. TEE SOVIETS CANNCT TRY TO ELIMINATE CASTRO, HOWEVER, FOR WITHOUT HIM THE CUBAN REVOLUTION WOULD BE LOST. THE UNITED STATES COULD BE TOLERATING CASTRO BECAUSE HE AIDS IMPERIALISM BY DESTROYING LATIN AMERICAN REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS. END SUHHARI.

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fidel castro, cuba, and the.prospects for armed revolution in

1. armed revolutionoss^ble now anywhere injjvtin america

because the necessary conditions do not exist. five years of failure

have proved this conclusively. continued attempts at armed revolution

WOULD RESULT IN THE TOTAL LIQUIDATION OF ALL REVOLUTIONARY FORCES AND

IT ISUESTION. OF PERMANENTLY ABANDONING THE ARMED STRUGGLE, ONLY OF ADJUSTING TO CURRENT REALITIES. IF SOME DAY ARMED REVOLUTION BECOMES AN APPROPRIATE FORM. OF STRUGGLE, THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VENEZUELA (PCV) WILL RESORT TO IT. COMMENT: B

the party is

WORKING DILIGENTLY ONEW ARMED ENTITY CAPABLE OF MOUNTING AN

SOVIETS AND THE COMMUNIST PARTIES

INSURRECTION. THIS PARAMILITARY ARM WILL OPERATE MAINLY IN THE CARACAS AREA.

OF LATIN AMERICA HAVE MADE TEE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED

THE STRUGGLE TO THE POLITICAL ARENA. IN GUATEMALA THE CHANCES OF A

SUCCESSFUL REVOLUTION ARE. BETTER THAN ELSEWHERE, HUT STILL ARE NOT GOOD.

CHILE IS THE ONLY COUNTRY IN LATIN AMERICAOMMUNIST REGIME COULD

COME TO POWER BY POLITICAL MEANS.

FIDEL CASTRO'S POLICY OF EXPOHTINGVIOLENT REVOLUTION

3 THE LATIN AMERICA IS BASED ON FANTASY, NOT_ REALITY. THIS IS

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BECAUSE CASTRO GETS ERRONEOUS INFORMATION FROM LATIN AMERICANS WHO HAVE "PERSONAL AND SPECIAL POLITICAL INTERESTS TO ADVANCE. THE UNAVOIDABLE RESULT HASERIES OF REVERSES AND DISASTERS. CASTRO HAS THUSEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE LATIN AMERICAN

REVOLUTION AND HIGHLY DANGEROUS TO ALL LATIN AMERICAN REVOLUTIONARY

MOVEMENTS. THE OVERRIDING PR05LEMS THAT CASTRO POSES FOR LATIN

AMERICA ARE PROBLEMS OF "CONTROL" AND "INTERVENTION" BY HIS INSISTENCE ON CONTROLLING THE MOVEMENTS AND GROUPS BE SUPPORTS. CASTRO SEES THE LATIN AMERICAN REVOLUTIONONTINENTAL REVOLUTION BUT ACTUALLY THE FACTORS AND FORCES IN THE FUNDAMENTAL SITUATION ALL HAVE NATIONAL CHARACTER AND ARE DIFFERENT IN EACH COUNTRY. THE NATIONAL REVOLUTIONARY LEADERS IN EACH COUNTRY MUST CONTROL THEIR MOVEMENTS AND ARE BEST ABLE TO MAKE DECISIONS.

3. AGGRAVATING THE PROBLEM IS THE FACT THAT CASTRO IS TACING A

SERIOUS INTERNAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CRISIS STEMMING FROM HIS

ONE-MAN RULE. SINCE CASTRO MAKES ALL THE DECISIONS, MANY OF THEM ARE

INEVITABLY WRONG AND THE WHEELS OF GOVERNMENT MOVE SLOWLY. ANOTHER RESULT OF HIS PERSONAL DICTATORSHIP IS THE FAILURE TO INSTITUTIONALIZE

REGIME.

IN SPITE OF CASTRO'S DOMESTIC FAILURES, EE STILL HAS POPULAR SUPPORT IN CUBA BUT HOW LONG HE CAN CONTINUE WITH

UNFULFILLED YEARLY PROMISES OF DREAD IS VERY UNCERTAIN. SHOULD HE BE

SUCCEEDED BY HIS BROTHER RAUL, TBE ENSUING RULE BY VIOLENCE AND TERROR WOULD NOT LAST LONG, FOR WITHOUT FIDEL THE REGIME WOULD FALL.

4- AJ_AN_ HISTORICAL FIGURE. CASTRO IS IMPORTANT TO ALL LATIN AMERICA, AND SO IS THE CUBAN REVOLUTION,N_ INSPIRATION, NOTODEL. LATIN AMERICA MUST BE GRATEFUL FOR CASTRO'S SHOWING

UCCESSFUL REVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE JUST NINETY MILES FROM THE UNITED STATES, EVEN IF HIS REVOLUTION WASOMMUNIST REVOLUTION. CASTRO WASOMMUNIST THEN. IN FACT, HIS REVOLUTION FOUGHT AGAINST THE COMMUNISTS. TODAY, WHO KNOWS WHAT CASTRO IS? PERHAPS HE IS AN

"IRREGULAR COMMUNIST."

TEE FAULTINESS OF CUBAN PLANNING IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE BOLIVIAN

CATASTROPHE AND THE DEATH OF "CHE" GUEVARA, FOR WHICH BOTH CASTRO AND GUEVARA ARE RESPONSIBLE. WHILE GUEVARA'S DEATHREAT DISASTERORLD TRAGEDY, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND HOW GUEVARA COULD

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COMMITLUNDER AS TO GO TO BOLIVIA AND PERSONALLY LEAD THE ARMED STRUGGLE. HE WASOREIGNER IN BOLIVIA AND NEEDED AN INTERPRETER TO TALE TO THE PEOPLE. ONE CUBAN INSTRUMENT TO CONTROL REVOLUTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA IS .'THE LATIN AMERICAN SOLIDARITY (LASO) . IN PRACTICE, HOWEVER, LASOEGATIVE FACTOR AND AN ELEMENT OF DIVISION; IT WILL NOT LAST LONG.

TEE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VENEZUELA AND DOUGLAS BRAVO, LEADER OF THE DISSIDENT ARMED FORCES OF NATIONAL LIBERATION

6. THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VENEZUELA (PCV) SEEKS TO PURSUE ITS POLICIES AND ADVANCE ITS INTERESTS BY POLITICAL MEANSEFTIST FRONT AND WITHOUT TERRORISTS. IN SHIFTING TO THE POLITICAL STRUGGLE THE PCV LEADERSHIP IS UNQUESTIONABLY RIGHT. ALL PLANS OF TEE PCV ARE BASED ON THE FUNDAMENTAL ASSESSMENT THAT THE CURRENTOF VENEZUELA IS STABLE AND SUCCESSFULLY REFORMIST IN NATURE. THIS IMPORTANT 'TRANSFORMATION" HAS CUT THE GROUND FROM UNDER THE COMMUNIST ATTEMPIS TO CHANNEL DISCONTENT ALONG THE LINES OF ARMED STRUGGLE THE PCV PREFERSOVERNMENTILITARY DICTATORSHIP AND JUDGES THATEW YEARS THERE IS THE DEFINITE POSSIBILITY THAT THE PARTY MAY BE ABLE TOOALITION GOVERNMENT. THE PARTY WILL '

CERTAINLY PARTICIPATE IN8 ELECTIONS AND WILL HAVEGOVERNMENT IS LIKELY TO PERMIT THIS SINCE IT WILL BEIT TO DO THE PCV IS ILLEGAL AND

CANNOT PARTICIPATE IN THE COMING ELECTIONS.

THE MAIN REVOLDTIONARY

FORCES IN VENEZUELA ARE THE PCV, THE REVOLUTIONARY PARTY OF RATIONALIST INTEGRATIONHE PRIETO WING OF THE RULING DEMOCRATIC ACTION PARTYND THE POPULAR DEMOCRATIC FORCE (FDP).

7. DOUGLAS BRAVO AND HIS DISSIDENT COMMUNIST FALN DOA SERIOUS REVOLUTIONARY FIGHTING FORCE. BRAVOA CUBAN EFFORT AND IF CASTRO WITHDRAWS HIS SUPPORT,WOULD COLLAPSE IN "TWO MINUTES.

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ABOUT FUNDS FROM CHINA THAT WERE BEING HELD UP BY THElMLIVj_ijBH WHILE BRAVO IS BRAVE AND DARING, HIS IDEOLOGICAL LEVEL IS LOW. EASURE OF HIS STUPIDITY IS THAT HE STILL VIEWS THE REVOLUTIONILITARY PROBLEM. IN ACTUAL FACT, BRAVO'S MILITARY OPERATIONS ARE ONLY ISOLATED TERRORIST ACTS. ALTHOUGH HE EMPHASIZES

SOME VICTORIES. BRAVO, HOWEVER, IS UNABLE TO DELIVER THE VICTORIES THAT CASTRO WANTS AND NEEDS. TENSION IS MOUNTING BETWEEN BRAVO AND HAVANA BECAUSE BRAVO IS NOT SO STRONG AS HE HAS LED CASTRO TO BELIEVE AND, IN FACT, IS GETTING WEAKER. JbHHLHHI COMMENT:

FRICTION

EXISTED BETWEEN THE CUBANS AND THE VENEZUELANS IN BRAVO'S FORCES ANDTHE CUBANS INTENDED TO INFORM FIDEL CASTRO THAT BRAVO HAD GROSSLY EXAGGERATED THE SIZE OF HIS FORCES AND .THE IMPORTANCE OF HIS FEATS.

CUBAN, CHINESE AND SOVIET THEORIES OF REVOLUTION

THE CHINESE AND CUBAN THEORIES OF REVOLUTION ARE SIMILAR, BOTH CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE ARMED STRUGGLE. THE CHINESE, HOWEVER, CALLONG WAR BY THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEASANTS. THE CHINESE HAVE NO

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INFLUENCE OR IMPORTANCE IN LATIN AMERICA. TBE CUBAN THEORY CALLS FOR GUERRILLA WARFARE BY SMALL GROUPS OF GUERRILLAS USING SMALL ARMS, NOT HEAVY WEAPONS. JULES REGIS DEBRAY IS TOTALLY DEVOID OF REVOLUTIONARY EXPERIENCE. WHILE DEBRAY IS NO DOUBT THE AUTHOR OF REVOLUTIONEVOLUTION, HIS BOOK IS BASED ENTIRELY ON THE CUBAN EXPERIENCE, TOTALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE VENEZUELAN EXPERIENCE, AND IRRELEVANT TO LATIN AMERICA. INTEREST IN THE BOOX WILL DIMINISH TO JUST NOTHING.

10. THE SOVIET THEORY OF REVOLUTION CALLS FOR ALL FORMS AND METHODS OF STRUGGLE. THERE IS NO SINGLE FORM THAT CAN BE SUCCESSFUL. TO FAVOR THE ARMED STRUGGLE ALONE IS PURE DOGMATISM. THE SOVIETS DO NOTINGLE LINE OR POLICY FOR LATIN AMERICA. THEIR LINE CHANGES ACCORDING TO THE DEMANDSITUATIONIVEN COUNTRYIVEN TIME. THE SOVIETS ARE PROVIDING NEITHER FINANCIAL OR MILITARY SUPPORT TO THE PCV AND ARE NOT DICTATING WHAT .THE PCV POLICY SHOULD BE. DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN THE PCV AND MOSCOW ARE 'TRATERNAL EXCHANGES."

COMMENT: i))Hi)^HBBMIHaBiiMi

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THE PCVUBSIDY. FROM ABROAD. IT IS BELIEVED HIS SUBSIDY COMES FROM THE USSR.)

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32. THE SINO-SOYIET SPLIT HAS, OF COURSE, ADVERSELY AFFECTED THE

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST MOVEMENT. IN LATIN AMERICA, HOWEVER IT HAS

ALSOOSITIVE EFFECT. IT HAS ENCOURAGED THE COMMUNIST LEADERS TO

SEARCH FOR THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEMS OF REVOLUTION AND HAS

PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT' OF GREATER INDEPENDENCE. PRECISELY ONE OF THE

BAD EFFECTS OF CUBA'S INTERVENTION IN LATIN AMERICA HAS BEEN TO "PUT

LEADERS TO SLEEP" BY ATTEMPTING TO DO THEIR WORK FOR THEM. THE SENO-

SOVIET SPLIT TENDS TO COUNTER THAT.

13. CASTRO POSES PROBLEMS FOR THE SOVIETS, BUT IT TOO IS

DANGEROUS FOR THEM TO TRY TO ELIMINATE HIM. WITHOUT CASTRO, THE REGIME

WOULD SOON FALL, AND THE CUBAN REVOLUTION WOULD BE LOST. THERE IS SOME

TRUTH TO THE VIEW THAT CASTRO IS AN UNWITTING COLLABORATOR OF IMPERIALISM

IN LATIN AMERICA FOR CASTRO HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST SERIOUS

DISASTERS OF SEVERAL REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS, ESPECIALLY THE DEATH OF

"CHE" GUEVARA AND THE BOLIVIAN CATASTROPHE. IT COULD WELL BE THAT THE

., UNITED STATES TOLERATES CASTRO BECAUSE CASTRO AIDS "IMPERIALISM" BY

DESTROYING REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS, THUS DOING GREAT DAMAGE TO THE

SOVIETS AND TO COMMUNIST PARTIES. SECURITY LEAKS IN CUBA COULD BE

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RESPONSIBLE FOR SUCH DISASTERS AS THE GUERRILLA LANDINc/MALriUKCCUTO ON

ONLT, CLANT ONLY.

Original document.

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