PRESIDENT THIEU'S VIEWS ON PROBABLE NORTH VIETNAMESE DEMANDS DURING FORTHCOMIN

Created: 4/6/1968

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CfNIRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

ffifatelligence Information Cable

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UBJECT

VIETNAM

PRESIDENT THIEU'S VIEWS Off PROBABLE NORTH VIETNAMESE DEMANDS DURING FORTHCOMING PEACE TALKS .

c

ACQ

SOURCI

THAT WILL BE UNACCEPTABLEHIM: CD THAT THE GOVERN-

MENT OF VIETNAM (GVN) NEGOTIATEHE-NAT-IONAU

LIBERATION FRONT CNFLSV) THAT THE GVNENUINE

COALITION WITH THE THIEU CONSIDERS IT ESSENTIAL THAT

Approved for Data AUG

- -

THE OPENING Or PEACE TALKS/NOT LEADIMINUTION.

AID AND THAT THE GVN EXERT EVERY EFFORT TO KEEP.

GOVERMIENI FROM SEPARATING IHE QUESTIONOMBING HALT

FROM THATREATY TO END THE WAR IN SOUTH VIETNAM. THIEU

SAID HE WAS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERINGENERAL MOBILI-

^HflH BRIEFED THIEUEW INTERMINIS-

TERIAL COUNCIL CHARGED WITH STUDYING WAYS OF MAINTAINING GVN

AUTHORITY IN THE EVENT OF ANOTHER EMERGENCY SIMILAR TO THE. VIET

CONGEN I.

NGUYEN VANEXPECTS THE NORTHMAKE TWO DEMANDS OF THE AMERICANS DURING FORTHCOMING PEACE_

NEGOTIATIONS WHICH THIEU WILL BE UNABLE TO ACCEPT. FIRST,

THIEU EXPECTS HANOI TO REJECT DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH IHE.

SOUTH VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT CGVN) ANDSTVS.

NEGOTIATE WITH THE NATIONAL FRONT FOR THEF SOUTH

VIETNAM (HFLSV). THIEU SAID THAT WHILE THE GVN IS WILLING TO

MEET ANYWHERE WITH DRV REPRESENTATIVES, IT WILL NOT NEGOTIATE

WITH IHE NFLSV. ALSC, THIEU THINKS HANOI WILL INSIST ON A

GENUINE COALITION GOVERNMENT FOR SOUTHVN), INCLUDING

THE NFLSV. THIEU SAID THAI NO SENIOR MEMBER OF THE PRESENT

MILITARY OR GOVERNMENT ESTABLISHMENT ISCCEPT A

COALITION GOVERNMENT.

2. THIEUUMBER OF .OTHER PRIORITIES TO WHICH

HE WAS ADDRESSING HIS ATTENTION. HE SAID IT WAS MOST IMPORTANT

SKCULD

THAT THE OPENING OF PEACE TALKS/NOT LEAD TO ANY DIMINUTION OF

AMERICAN MILITARY OR ECONOMIC. ASSISTANCE, SINCE THIS AID WAS

FUNDAMENTAL TO THE SURVIVAL OF THE PRESENT VIETNAMESE GOVERN-

ME NT. HE SAID THAT THE GVN SHOULD ALSO EXERT EVERY .EFFORT TO_

KEEP THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT (USG) FROM. SEPj>RATl.

CUESJIONOMBING HALT IN NORTH VIETjjAM_ FROM THATUST

PEACE TREATY ENDING THE WAR IN SVN. EVENOMBING, _

HALT, TALKS COULD LAST A OMBING HALT, THEY

WOULD PROBABLY LAST EVEN LONGER. DURING THIS PERIOD THE

DRV NOT ONLY WILL STRENGTHEN ITS MILITARY FORCES BUT

IX_WILL INFILTRATE MANY POLITICAL CADRES INTO THE SOUTH. IF

NE GOT IATIONS ABORT, THE GVN WILL BE FACEDUCH

lna.Fg_WTi I

COITIONS

-

PAGE 4 OF 5 PACES

Si WORKING HARD TO WEAKEN POPULAR RESISTANCE. OMBING

HALT SHOULD BE CLOSELY RELATEDETTLEMENT IN THE SOUTH.

THIEU SAID HE HAS BEEN.GIVING SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TOENERAL MOBILIZATION AS AN INDICATION OF GVN DETERMINATION. THE PRESIDENT.ALSO SAID HE WAS SINCERE WHEN HE DECLARED THAT IT PROBABLY WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ALLIES TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR TROOPS BY THE ENDS8. HE THOUGHT AT LEAST "SEVERAL BATTALIONS" SHOULD BE PHASED OUT BY THAT. IMEOKEN INDICATION OF GVN DETERMINATION TOARGER ROLE IN ITS OWN DEFENSE. .

a. U

TEHIAL COUNCIL

CONSISTS OF THE MINISTERS OF INTERIOR, CH1ZU HOI VETERANS,EPRESENTATIVE OF THE OFFICE OFAMONG OTHERS. THE COMMITTEE IS CHARGED WITHWAYS OF MAINTAINING GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY IN THE EVENTEMERGENCY SIMILAR TO THE ENEMY'S TET TRUCEIS ALSO STUDYING WAYS TO COORDINATE THE GOVERNMENT'SPROGRAM NOW SCATTERED AMONG SEVERALTHE ARMED FORCES. J| HE.COMMITTEE HAD ALREADY

ON THREE - .

GVN MUST AKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS PRESENT IN- '

CREASEjJ^ORAL POSITION IN THE FORUMBLICTHE GVN CANNOT BE SEPARFROM THE USG IN THEIN .THE INTACE KEGOTIT_aTHE IMPROVED MORAL' POSITION OF THE USGTKESE MEASURES.' '

WflY_S^ .TO KEEP UPI

OF THE PEOPLE DURING PEACE TALKS. IF THE VIETNAMESE

PEOPLE CONCENTRATE ONLY ON THE HOPE OF PEACE AND FORGET THE

REASONS WHY THE GVN IS FIGHTING THE WAR AND IF NEGOTIATIONS

DO NOT LEAD TO PEACE, IT WILL-BE DIFFICULT TO RECAPTUREOF thf

C. ALL STEPS POSSIBLE MUST BE TAKEN TO CONVINCE THE

PEOPLE OF THE NORTH THAT THEY MUST COMPEL THEIR GOVERNM.ENJ

TO_ARRIVE AT ATHE CONFLICT. THIS WILL INVOLVE PRIMARILY THE DROPPING OF LEAFLETS OVER NORTH VIETNAM AND OTHER MEANS TO AFFECT PUBLIC OPINION THERE.

Original document.

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