Created: 3/28/1968

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Manager, Atomic Energy Cosmlssioo,'tba sub ject being outside of his Juxi^dletion, )' -f-


Dr. CharleB* Energyf bis* juri



To estimate the likelihood of Incidents that would endanger or embarracs Vice President Humphrey during his visit to Mexico City,


We believe that the efforts of the Mexican Government and security forces will keepinimum the number of potentially embarrassing incidents during Vice President Humphrey's visit to Mexico City, and that the riskangerous incident will be One may not rule out, however, an attempt at violencesychopath or fanatic.


on maintaining cordial relations vith the US and vlU receive Vice President Humphrey aa an honored guest. rdaz vill probably take considerable pride ia the occasion for the Vice President's visit to Mexico City! tho signing by the USupplementary protocol to the Treaty ofhlch tans nuclear veapoea from Latin America, and vhlch vas principally initiated by tha Mexican Government.i/

political situation in Mexico is stable,conditions in Mexicoetropolis of nearlyresidents, are good. The Institutional(PRT) virtually monopolizes Mexican politics, vhlledominates the party vlthout significant challenge to lot only is the PRI effective in maintainingbut it also contributes specifically tofor visiting dignitaries. It helps insurepeaceful popular receptions by using Ita supporters to line

l/ f the Treaty obligates the states possessing nuclear veapons not to violate tho nuclear-free zone created by theatin American signatory nations.

motorcade routes and to surround the sites of public ceremonies. Diaz Ordaz has ordered that much the aame measures be laid on for the Vice President as were taken during the visits of President Johnson6

3- The Mexican security forces willigh degree of personal safety for the Vice President. These forces arereliable, tough, and reasonably competent. The police of the Federal District are effective in handling crowds and quashing incipient disorders. They will be assisted by the crack Presidential Guard of the Army. Additional well-trained arery troops are stationed ln the Federal District and vould be available as needed.

h. Thereumber of anti-US elements in Mexico. Theae Include the small Mexican Corrnruniot Party, the larger Popular Socialist Party, and various small extremist groups. Mexico City laaven for political exiles from other countries, mostly Communist and leftist extremists but also Including anti-Castro Cubans. All these groups, Mexican and foreign, exiat largely

2/ Diaz Ordaz hasersonal vateh over security forcea in the metropolitan area ever alnce the yearsU) when as Minister of Interior he was ln charge of securityfor visiting dignitaries.

"by tho sufferance of the government, and fear risking Its wrath. They will he warned not to cause trouble during the Vice President's visit and are unlikely to attempt to organize major disorders. The Mexican Government maintains surveillance over the activities of most of these groups and would probably have advance warning if any major disorders vere planned. Mexican legal procedures do not inhibit the police from detaining as many Individuals as the government considers necessary to maintain order on special occasions, and this license vill be exercised for the Vice President's visit.

5- nonetheless, soma Individuals and small groups. Including students not affiliated with extremist organizations, willattempt to demonstrate against the Vice President'shis would almost certainly be the case if he vere to visit the Ka tional Autonomous University of Mexico. Though the issue of US policy In Vietnam is not particularly heated in Mexico, it vill probably be the principal focus of protests; ve believe that any demonstrators vill not be seeking deliberately to endanger the Vice President. Furthermore, the security forcea will probably

3/ Several small protest demons trot ions, all quickly put down, vere attempted during President6 visit.

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intercept meet demonstrators before they get within sight of the Vice President, and those achieving that objective will almost certainly be removed by the police soon thereafter. With the possible exceptionniversity audience, we believe there will be very little popular support for demonstrators.

6. In sum, we believe there ia little chance of an incident that would endanger the Vice President, and that the number of potentially embarrassing incidents will be small. One may not, however, rule out the possibility of an attempt at violence by some individual,sychopathanatic, who could be Mexican, American, or any other nationality.

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