Confidential
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Communist International Civil Air Activities in the Free World5
Uonfidentiat
ER98
Copy No.
. CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence8
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Communist International Civil Air Activities in the Free World5
Summary
Fifty-five Free World countries have civil air agreements with Communist countries, and Communist airlines byervedree World countries (see the Appendix). The current level of Communist air service into the Freelights per weekis more thanercent higher than in the winter. During the past three years the USSR has emphasized the extension of new routes into North America and Japan and has been willing to open additional air corridors over tho USSR to Free World carriers. The USSR has taken little initiative in expanding service to the less developed countries. Eastern European airlines have largely confined their expanded air service to Western Europe and the Middle East.
Aeroflot (the Soviet civil air carrier and the largest Communist airline) now servesree World countries over an unduplicated route network0 miles. 5 the USSR has concluded civil air agreements with four developed Free World countries (Canada, Switzerland, Japan, and the United States) and with five less developed countries (Cameroon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Turkey, and
Note: This memorandum vae produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Economic Beeearah and wao coordinated with the Office of Strategic Reeearch and the Office of Current Intelligence.
Scheduled air service from Moscow was inaugurated by Aeroflot to Zurich, Tokyo, and Montreal6 On8 the Moscow-Montreal flight was extended to New York, implementing the bilateral air agreement between the United States and the USSR which was signed inhe USSR chose these routes to North America toits first long-range commercial jet transport, the
The Czechoslovak State Airliney far the largest Eastern European carrier, servesree World countriesoute network of more0 miles. Although primary emphasis5 has been on consolidation of route network, the air agreements 3igned with Sudan6 and the United States in8 couldew period of expansion. CSA probably will Inaugurate service to New York9 if political conditions permit. During the past two and one-half years, the other Eastern European airlines each inaugurated service to Beirut and increased service from their respective capitals to West European cities. All the Eastern European airlinos, except TAROM, the Rumanian carrier, continue to use Soviet aircraft almost exclusively. Communist China has added no new international routes.
The international servico of Communist airlines, particularly Aeroflot and CSA, will continue to grow rapidly during the next few years. Aeroflot'sof Moscow-New York service providesimpetus for further expansion that oventually may include service to Latin America and Australia. Byoth Aeroflot and CSA probably will have round-tho-world service.
The operations of Communist airlines in the Freo World pose no serious competition for the major international airlines of the Free World, such as PAA, TWA, BOAC, and Air Franco. Communist airlines serve primarily European cities, competing against the limited reciprocal service of Free World European airlines to Communist capitals. eekly flights by all Communist carriers to the Free World compare withnternational flights per week
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flown by the Scandinavian Airlines Systemedium-size international airline. AA, the largest international airline, hadnternational flights par week, whichotal of moreillion passengers in the year. Aeroflot carriedillion passengers7 but fewerercent of these were on itsflights to the Free World.
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Communist International Civil Air Service to the Free World
* *
Growth in Service
Communist civil airlines have air agreements withree World countries and offer air service tof these countries. Flights by Communist airlines to Free World cities have increased by more thanercent Aeroflot and CSA are the largest carriers, as shown in the table and in more detail inhroughinside back cover) .
The USSR, after seven years of expanding its air routes into the less developed countries, has shifted its attention back to the developed countries.he USSR signed air-agreements with
oss developed countries and with only two developed countries, Italy and Luxembourg. ir agreements have been concluded with four developed countriesCanada, Japan, Switzerland, and tho United Statesnd with only five less developed countries* Initiation of scheduled service on three new routes, Moscow-Montreal-New York, Moscow-Tokyo, and Moscow-Dar es Salaam, increased Aeroflot's un-duplicated route network into the Free World byercentto more0 nautical miles. Service was extended fromree World countries at the end5 toy the summer
of the USSR's recent success inair agreements with developed countriesa mutual desire of the participants toand commercial relations, but theof the Soviet Union to open up newover its territory also has been afactor. Evidence of this latter policy isservice between Copenhagen and Singaporethat was inauguratedovemberthe joint service of Aeroflot and the Japanese
- Airline (JAL) between Moscow and Tokyo that began
*
Communist International Civil Air Service to the Free World
Free World Service
of
Miles)
Routes (Nautical Countries
Served
Flights pel Wco!-:
WinterSummer 8 Increase
Civil Air Fleet (Aeroflot)
Czechoslovak State (CSA)
Polish State Air (LOT)
Hungarian AirCompany (MALEV)
Rumanian Air Transport (TAROM)
Bulgarian Civil Airline (BALKAN)
East German State Airline (Interflug)
Civil Aviation of China (CAAC)
0
|
37
4
L9
I 3
14
9
1
20
4
19
13
6
44
6
29
18
16
69
2
53
36
60
^ Six flights (two each by CSA, LOT, and MALEV) are summer ftigkze that probably will be discontinued in the fallS.
* Moreover, Austrian Airlines,esultenewed Soviet-Austrian bilateralsignedow has rights to operate beyond Moscow via Tashkent to Iran, India, and Thailand. In exchange, Aeroflot was awarded rights to operate through Vienna to Switzerland, Italy, and France.
The inauguration of Aeroflot's Moscow-New York service on8 with theaee Figureecade of Soviet-US discussions. It also enhanced the USSR's prestige as an international air carrier as well as the sales appeal of theo Free World countries.** The US-Soviet air agreement gives the USSR an additional talking point inair agreements with Australia and Latin American countries, particularly Mexico. (Cuba is the only Latin American country that has an air agreement with the USSR.) It is unlikely, however, that the USSR will obtain such agreements since the US-Soviet air agreement does not give Aeroflot beyond rights from New York to other parts of the Western Hemisphere, any Aeroflot service to Latin America would have to be an extension of existing Aeroflot routes to Cuba, West Africa, or Montreal.
Eastern European airlines have focused their attention5 on increasing the number of flights within Europe, extending air service to the Middle East, and consolidating existing route networks to improve the efficiency of air operations.
Plights into the Free World by Eastern European airlines increased more thanercent,n the wintern the summer Most of the rise is attributable to increases in the number of flights to Amsterdam, Paris, London,
* This agreement provides for joint operation of thie route by Aeroflot and JAL using Soviet aircraft and flight crews (JAL provides etewardeeeee and an observer)eriod of two years. The USSR has promieed at the end of this period to "try to clear the way" for 3Ah to fly independently overnrance leased onerom the USSR, and the aircraft is now in service between Moecow and Paris.
eONKiDKN'HA-fr
Zurich, and Rome and to tho inauguration of air service by five Eastern European airlines to Beirut1jhA_ajor air transit point in the Middle East. Expansion of routes and service within Western Europe as well as to nor* distant points has been restricted morethe lack of modern aircraft than by the absence of air agreements. Current international flights use the Soviet turbopropew of the newer's, almost exclusively. Only Rumania among the Eastern European carriers has broken the pattern of dependence on the USSR for commercial aircraft.
Fleet Modernization
programs by Communistto take form in In7
the USSR introduced its first long-range jet transport, thein scheduled international air service on the Moscow-Montreal flight and subsequently betweenoscow and London, Paris, Rome, and Now Delhi. In ddition, the Sovietew short-to-medium- -range jot, has begun to replace the outdated aircraft used on Aeroflot's short-haul to medium-haul routes to Western Europe. Aeroflot's introduction of more modern aircraft is expected to accelerate9hen the medium-range to long-ranges ready for service (see
to the Soviet intervention, CSAthe largest modernization program amongEuropean airlines. 7 itIL-lSD's and in8 anastho USSR. CSA haseasednflight and had planned to introducethe Prague-Djakarta route in the fall*
In .addition, CSA has announced plans for the purchase of threes (one8 and two bynefter production begins, ands for delivery9
Theeased to Czechoslovakia was returned to the USSH.
3MMC'A
9. Rumania's TAROM is the first Communist airline to? include Western aircraft in its modernization plans, inAROM ordered six's from the British Aircraft Corporation for delivery beginning in These aircraft, two of which have already been delivered, probably will replace part of theleet used on TAROM's flights into the Free World. The other Eastern European airlinesLOT, MALEV, BALKAN, and Interflugplan to modernize their fleet withs and have ordered at leastor delivery beginning* LOT has eight of theso medium-range jets on order.
Safety Rj-corri
There have been three major accidentsCommunist airlines on scheduled international service n Aeroflotrashed in6 on taxooff during bad weather from Moscow's Shoremet'yevo Airport on an inaugural flight to Brazzaville. Twenty-one of theersons aboard were killed. nulgariancheduled flight from Sofia to East Berlin crashed on takeoff from Bratislava and allassengers and eight crew members were killed.** hortly after CSA had replaced the turboprop Britannia with then the route to Cuba, one of thes crashed on takeoff from Gander, andfassengers were killed.
This record would appear to compare favorably with that of Western airlines, but an overallof the safety record of Communist airlines is not possible. Accidents on domestic flights are
Therimarily beoauee of ito low paeeenger-carrying capaoity of fromoersons, will prove uneconomical when compared with the US ehort-rangearryingaeeengere. " ulgarian airlinehartered flight from Dresden to Burgae crashedhortly before reaching Burgas, Fifty of theersons aboard were killed.
concealed, and although crashes of aircraft onroutes cannot be concealed, data on passenger miles flown are not available for comparison. .the Communist practice of canceling flights in questionable weather,ar greater degree than do Western airlines, complicates such comparisons.
Free World Air Agreements and Routes
USSR
he USSR has concluded airwith Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and theand previous agreements with Denmark,Sweden were updated by protocol amendments. now has air agreements with most of thepowers except West Germany. The USSR signed
air agreements with the less developed nations of Cameroon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Turkey, and Yemen. During the last two and one-half years, the USSR has shown far less interest in pursuing civil air matters with less developed countries than it did.
ervice to Montreal was inaugurated in Passenger traffic on this route was high during the summer7 because ofut traffic has since dropped off and the number of flights per week has been reduced from two to one. The extension of the weekly Moscow-Montreal flight to New York has improved the traffic potential.
Direct weekly air service between Tokyo and Moscow, provided for in the air agreement signed inas inaugurated on This service, whichoute between Japan and Western Europe that is five hours shorter than the Polar route, can beuccess largely because of travel by Japanese businessmen and tourists to Western Europe. In the first six months ofassengers (an average ofer flight) were flown from Tokyo to Moscowassengers (an average ofer flight) used the return flights from Moscow to Tokyo. This volume of traffic ononfigured toassengers presumably has been profitable, and the service should be even more lucrative when the Japanese World's Fair opens
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Aeroflot officials have disclosed that theet will go into service on the Moscow-Tokyo route in the near future. Before it will agree to any change in the aircraft used on the route, however, Japaneiteration of Soviet promises that JAL would be allowed to perform independent Tokyo-Moscow flights at the end of the initial two-year period of operation.
15. Aoroflot's expansion of service to the less developed countries5 has been minimal. The USSR signed an air agreement with Lebanon innd Aeroflot service between Moscow and Beirut was quickly inaugurated in The Soviet-Lebanese air agreement does not provide Aeroflot with fifth freedom rights.* In7 the USSR signed an air agreement with Turkey and Aeroflot and inaugurated service to Ankara in8 as an intermediate point on the Moscow-Cairo route. Air agreements were signed with Nigeria6 and Cameroon Service to Lagos and Douala probably will begin aa an extension of the existing Moscow-Conakry flight after Nigerian hostilities end. Aeroflot is expected to further expand service to Africa by inaugurating regular flights to Dakar (with intermediate stops in Belgrade, Algiers, and Conakry) in the fall8 on the basisoviet-Senegalese air agreement signed The Senegalese agreement provides for beyond rights only to theof South America. This does not include Cuba.
16. The air agreement signed with Yementhe establishment of air service to East Africa, which the USSR has sought for several years. Weekly service between Moscow and Dar es Salaam via Modeida, Cairo, and Mogadiscio was begun onhis route, mostly over water, bypasses Sudan (which refused several years ago to grant Aeroflot beyond rights from Khartoum) and Kenya (which withdrew in6 from an agreement permitting Aeroflot service to Nairobi). This is the first new route established by Aeroflot to Africa south of the Sahara. An Aeroflot route to Brazzavillethe Central African Republic was dropped after the inaugural flight crashed on takeoff from Moscow in
freedom rights would have permitted Aeroflot to pick up and discharge paeeengere in Beirut who were destined for or originated from third countries.
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has broadened its direct inter-air service from cities other than MoscowWestern Europe. Air service now includesLeningrade to London via Copenhagen, andto Helsinki. Inirectinaugurated between Kiev and Vienna* insee
Czechoslovakia
the largest and most experienced ofEuropean carriers, has concentrated sincethe consolidation of its route network. Alladded to CSA's service during this periodFreetown, Nicosia, Istanbul, Teheran,and Singaporehave been incorporatedpoints on or extensions to (see The stops at Singaporewere provided for in^ air agreementsSingapore in7 and with The other cities added were covered
by existing air agreements or transit arrangements. Service to Kabul was discontinued in6 due to lack of traffic.
has signed severalair agreements, not yet implemented, thata significant expansion of CSA's service
to the Free World in the next few years. An air agreement with Sudan, signed inaves the way for CSA to fly into East Africa. The agreement grants CSA fifth freedom rights from Khartoum to Entebbe and Nairobia concession that the USSR has failed to gain. To complement this agreement, Czechoslovakia negotiated air agreements with Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda in* most important agreement, however, was the one signed in8 with the United States to6 accord that had been inoperative The new agreement provides CSArague-New York route and formalizes the PAA service
This rout* had been served onlyeg of flight, Mosaoti-Kiev-Vienna*
It is not clear whether these agreements have been signed..
12
to Prague which has operated since5emporary permit. CSA probably had hoped to initiate its Prague-New York service insing the Sovietnd to use the US agreement to its advantage in obtaining air agreements in Latin America.
Poland
LOT has almost doubled its number of flights into the Free Worldut almost all its expansion has been in Western Europe (seeear-round routes were established to Milan and Split, and summer routes ware introduced to Vienna, Copenhagen, and Shannon. Warsaw to Beirut was the only new route added outside of Western Europe. This route was the result6 air agreement with Lebanon. An air agreement also was signed with Turkey in7 but service has not been initiated.
The service from Warsaw to Shannon wasinormal airas parteekly service between Warsaw and North America (New York, Chicago, and Montreal). This service is operated in cooperation with IrishAirlines, which flies the portion betwoen Shannon and North America.
Hungary
has signed new air agreementsFree World countriesIndia, Lebanon,Sudanorocco and Iran In the past two and one-halfhas expanded its number of flightsut most of the additionalbeen on established European routes. econd weekly flight toa new route via Istanbul, and direct servicewas inaugurated in6 (see
Rumania
independent stance in civil air was ovident with the signing of an airwith Israel in* TAROM, tha first
* Bulgaria signed an air agreement with Israelut eaheduled air service was never initiated.
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Communist airline to fly into Israel, began weekly flights between Bucharest and Tel Avivay'(see Israel's Bl Al flies weakly to Constanta from Tel Aviv. Flights between the two countries have proved successful and may be increased. Rumania also concluded an air agreement with Lebanon7 and updated an existing agreement with Turkey which permitted TAROM to inaugurate weekly air serviceBucharest and Beirut via Istanbul in the summer In addition, the existing air agreement with Switzerland was updated, and air service to Africa was inaugurated by extending its route between Bucharest and Athens to Cairo.
Bulgaria
minuscule participation incivil aviation has mushroomed (see Figureconcluded air agreements with Turkey,Iraq6 and with Lebanon, Sudan,Italynd now has air agreements with
ree World countries. ALKAN (formerly TABSO) has increased its number of flights into the Free World from six toeek. Weeklyervice was introduced7 between Sofia and Nicosia, Sofia and Beirut via Istanbul, and Sofia and Rome.
ulgaria joined theAviation Organizationnd in Januaryreorganized its civil air establishmentit Bulgarian Civil Aviation. art ofthe airline, formerly one unit knownwas dividedharter flightcheduled domestic and internationalcalled BALKAN.
East Germany
the East German airline, hasservice to the Middle East5 and hasweekly flights to West Africa (see Figureit still operates the smallestserviceeighteek into the
* Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Rumania aleo are members of ICAO, and Hungary reportedly will apply for ICAO membership in the near future.
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Free Worldof any of the Eastern European
East Germany concluded air agreements with Mali and Iraq In addition, Algeria and Guinea apparently granted Interflug permissioncheduled service to Algiers and Conakry without benefitormal air agreement. Weekly flights to Bamako (Mali) and Conakry via Algiers were begun in Service to the Middle East was increased by extending the route Bast Berlin-Nicosia-Damascus to Baghdad, by inaugurating weekly service between East Berlin and Beirut, and bythe number of flights from East Berlin to Cairo from one toeek.
In7 it was announced that an air agreement had been signed by Cuba and East Germany. This agreement provides for the establishment of scheduled service between East Berlin and Havana, but service has not yet been implemented.
Communist .China
the Chinese Communist airline;opened any new international air routes(see. Its only service toeekly flight between Peiping andKunming. China signed an air agreementin6 that provided for aby both countries between Paris andonly Air France has inaugurated service on CAAC apparently has no immediate plansits option under this agreement. between China and Japan has been mentioned
ossibility by Japanese officials.
III. Prospects
next few years shoulderiodgrowth in the international serviceairlines, particularly Aeroflot andinauguration of Moscow-New Yorkconsiderable impetus to expansionthe world- Moreover, if the USSR continuesof opening Soviet cities andair corridors
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J-DI vN'-HAk
to foreign airlines, reciprocal concessions in the Free World will facilitate the expansion of Aeroflot's international route network. The introduction of thend other modern aircraft such as thend theill enable both the USSR and the larger Eastern European air carriers to compete more successfully with Western airlines.
USSR probably will join ICAO in twoyears. The USSRmall delegationino discuss procedures fororganization. Soviet officials indicatedplanned to make application before the endbut failed to do so. ICAOumberstandards for aircraft and aviationas well as recommended civil aviationwhich member nations are asked, but notsubscribe. US officials ostimate that itthe USSR about two years to furnishdocumentation and adapt its procedures
to those of ICAO.
in ICAO would facilitatecivil air operations; Aeroflotaccorded overflight rights over memberaircraft would be certificated by ICAO and notcountries, and it would make thecivil air matters with other nations lossUSSR, in turn, would have to open up itsa considerably greater extent than it has in Under the air transit provision of ICAO,state is required to permit bothnonscheduled overflights and/or stops forpurposes by aircraft of memberstates can, however, specify the routescorridors to bo used.
probably will intensify itsestablish air service to at least onecountry (in addition to its presentCuba). Aeroflot also is likely to link itsWest African routes and extend itsto Australasia and Japan. Aeroflothas its eye on round-the-world operations
by thes. This service is offered today only by PAA, BOAC, and Quantas.
alsout one of far less scope thanair agreement with the Unitedplans for the introduction of modern aircraft
on international routes, and CSA's sophistication in international air matters should work to itsin achieving this objective. Air agreements already are being sought with both Moxico andboth important keysSA globe-circling service.
other Eastern European airlines,LOT, will expand service primarily towith some further extension of routes toEast and Africa. Communist Chinanot take any major steps to expand itsinto the Free World until the pressures
of tho Cultural Revolution have eased. Once this has been accomplished, some limited initiatives can be expected by China, particularly in the Far East, Middlo East, and Africa.
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