"ho following intelligence a
Defem* of the United Staloi Idw^TWo .le^'OscVsoct, iha Jrom-ny manner*'la arVunautliorlred penon ii prohibited.
"The CentralAcinOTn^
CENTRAL BHCE AGENCY
38
SUBJECT: : SECURITY CONDTTIOBS IN MEXICO CITY
THE PROBia.l
To estimate the livelihood of Incldento that could endanger or embarrass Mr. Nixon or any other Important American political figure vho might visit Mexico City during the Olympic Games.^
CONCLUSIONS
A. The conflict between the government and thrwisanda of students ln Mexico City baaituation sharply different from that which obtained during visits by President Johnson and Vice president Humphrey.
l/Mr. Nixon may onctober maix-hour visit to theOlyrmplc Games and to the Olympic Villagerivate citizen and not an an official guest of the Mexican Government.
Although the Mexican Toyeruroent vould take measures to protectixon'o personal safety currlng hia visit, we Judge that the likelihood of an Incident which night embarrass orany inrportant American political figure is considerably greater nev than it vould have been three roontha ago.
DISCUSSION
esult ofrtexican relations, the generally high level of political stability then obtaining ln MMcLco, and tho thrjroughneaa and efficiency vith vhich the textcan Government carried out its aecurity preparations, the visits by President Johnson and Vice President Hurnphrey In recent yeoro involved little or no danger to their personala ve had judged before each visit, there vas no attemptajor violentand potentially embarrassing Incidents vererininun.
In view of tho recurring difficulties betveen Msxican ctudentG and the Diaz Ordai administration over the past two
resident Johnson in6 andnd Vice President Bunrjbrey during
months, we cannot now make the same Judgmentossible visit by Mr. Nixon or by any other American dignitary. In order to bring student rioting under control the Mexican Government haa bad to resort to extensive use of Itc summary authority for arrest and detention and extensive employment of its police forces, backed up by array troopa and tanks. Thoro have been scores of casualtiesumber of fatalities on both sides, with the students using firearms and Molotov cocktails to attack government forces and to defend student positions.
3. We believe that the situation in Mexico City vlll remain tense for some time to come, and that the conflict between students and the government could again erupt into violence at any moment. The nore moderate student leaders nay agree to forgo further violence and to open discissions with tho administration. But we think that scne student extremists vill attempt to stage demonstrations during the Olympic Games in the expectation of embarrassing the Mexican Government.
h. If Mr. Nixon or any other Important political figure from the US does visit Mexico city during the GameB, we think that the Mexican security forces would have appreciably more difficulty in protecting him than has been the case for such visits in tbe past.
Security forces have already been extensively deployed to cope with tho danger of student violenceumber of places ln and around Mexico City, Including the actional University which is adjacent to the Olympic Stadium, and will be further taxed by the heavy Influx of visitors and increase in traffic once the Olympico begin.
At the present time tbe number of potential trourjlooakcrs Is not only much greater than on previous visits, but theirare almost certainly not as wcll-knovn to the Mexican authorities. They Include not only college and university studentoarge number of students from secondary schools, many of whom have no previoufl record of antigovernment activity. The presence of large numbers of foreign visitors vill Intensify the problem of identifying potential troublemakers. Thus the security forces vould have considerably greater difficulty ln taking the measures, such ao preventive detention, thntarge role in their security preparations.
We think that the Mexican Government vould be able to take neasures sufficient to protect Mr. Blxon during his arrival at the airport. The security arrangements at the Olympic Village and at the Olympic Stadium will be tightened in order to minimize the
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danger of hostile deraonctrations. nevertheless, the chance of an embarrassing Incident, including an crvcrreaction by security forces, la nov considerably greater then has been the case on previous visits.
7- If Mr. Nixon traveled by aotor car from the slrport to the gamos, the distance involved could provide opportunities to antl-OB and airtigoverunjent elements seeking to create anIncident or one that aright threaten Mr. Hlxon'a rjersonal safety, either by the hostile action of demonetrator3 cr the reaction of security forces. The fact that the visit vould be unofficial would raake it unlikely that Mexican security forces vould take the extremely elaborate precautions custcenry for official visits.
8. Finally, there la always the possibility of an attempt at violence by an individual psychopath or fanaticfrom Mexico, the US,hird country. We believe that, in view of the tensions created by recent student else bee with the police and army forces, the risk of such an attempt lo greater than during past visits by US dignitaries.
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Original document.
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