RUMORS OF SOVIET MILITARY MOVE INTO RUMANIA

Created: 11/19/1968

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE

INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence8

INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

SUBJECTi Rumors of Soviet Military Move Into Rumania

Current Soviet military dispositionsbehavior give no Indications of any immediate moves against Fumoni

Other unconfirmed reports suggestarsaw Pact exercise Is to take place in Rumania this month. We have observed some small-scale activity in Rumania which could relateinor joint exorcise or other kind of Military cooperation. The scale and typo of this activity is not indicativearge military exercise. Nor has Bucharest given the signs we shftuld expect to see if such an exercise were imminent.

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Reports of Military Move._Znto Rumania

ajor Warsaw Pact exercise Is to ba held in Rumania now, it would be the first time any Pact exercise of such scope hos occurred this late in the year. We know that the official Pact training schedule8 contained no provisionaneuver In Rumania. Moreover, we have good informationoviet-Rumanian agreement was reached last monthact exercise to be held there

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tenuous indications tions Cor a

5. We have received only that could be interpreted at Pact exercise in Rumania.

ts. ubsequently were

Jmporary facilities in the Bucharest area. Polish and Hungarian officers, and an East German military transport were also observed in

few Soviet air force officers seen in two Rumanian cities.

Comment

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Although most of the Soviet forces committed to the Czechoslovak intervention have returned to home stations, the military preparations necessary for intervention comparable to those undertaken prior to tha invasion of Czechoslovakia have not been detected. Weoviet-led Invasion of Rumania is unlikely at this time. Although some Soviet forces on the Rumanian border were mobilised during tho Czech crisis, evidence of mid-September indicated no sufficient for intervention hod occurred at that time, and, since then, there have been no indications from other sources of such preparations.

In their public attitude and in their behavior toward tho Warsaw Pact since the invasion of Czechoslovakia, the Rumanians have sought not to offer the Soviets gratuitous offense. Moscow has noted these signs, too, and seems, for now,

to have eased its propaganda and psychological pressures on Bucharest.

Soviets can probably afford towaiting game with the Rumanians long enough

to see what lessons the latter have learned from the intervention in Czechoslovakia. One important touchstone will be whether the Rumanians will be more visibly cooperative where the affairs of the Warsaw Pact are concerned. This would include participation in forthcoming combined exercises.

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Original document.

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