ibj LIBRARY Mandatory Reviewil Oocumcmf 3^
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
the current disarray in zanzibar
No. 1
7
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of8
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
The Current Disarray in Zanzibar
Summary
Since the formation of the United Republic of Tanzaniahe island of Zanzibar hashorny problem for President Nyerere.
Onovember, an unprecedented, surpriseexercise on Zanzibar spawned rumors of another coup on that trouble-riddled island. Mainland Tan-zanian police quietly and efficiently seized control of the town of Zanzibar and were soon reinforced by Zanzibar Army units. Although it was only aalert, President Nyerere may have approved ithow of force to bolster the position of Abeid Karume, Zanzibar's uneducated, nationalist President, against the island's perennial plotters and pro-Comounist hoodlums.
Nyerere has been gradually gaining control over the island's foreign affairsover the Communist-trained army, but he has always been reluctant to intervene in Zanzibar's internal affairs. In the past year, however, the economic situation there has deteriorated further because of corruption and gross mismanagement. Karume hasto rising discontent by tightening security,
(Vote: Tnia memorandum yai produced solely by CIA. It uas prepared by the Office of Current Intelligence and coordinated with the Office of Economic Research, the Office of national Estimates, end the Clandestine Services.
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making arbitrary arrests, and issuing decrees that impinge on Dar es Salaam's prerogatives. Nyerere, increasingly critical of Karune's leadership, may have decided that he must soon assert hisauthority to bring the situation under con-
trol.
zibar's close ties with Peking are growing
more extensive as the Chinese become increasingly involved in the island's economy, public services, and military affairs. There has been asharp decline in the East Germans' influence in all areas except in the security police, while their mentors, the Soviets, have remained relative!-inactive except for military advice and support.
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TANZANIA
No Foaflcgn Dissen
Background
union of Tanganyika andarranged inbeen consummated. The Zanzibaris haveresisted any real integration of thewith that of the mainland, andNyerere this uphill struggle has beensource of personal frustration. Farunder control of the more moderate Zanzibar has continued toenterradical, pro-Communist influences radiate.
Zanzibar itself, the union haspopular, and it was only Tanganyika'stactics that forced the issue. convinced Zanzibar's President Xarume,first vice president of Tanzania, thatTanganyika was the only way to prevent theminister A. H. Sabu and hisfroa gaining complete control of thegovernment. Karune, despite strongfrom radical labor and youth elements,Zanzibar's ratification of thethough only one third of the island'sRevolutionary Council voted in its favor. the council had earlier come to power inof the bloody revolution of Januaryoverthrew the sultan's Arab government. has neverormal mandate, and few of theembers would be returned inelection.
soon became evident that Xarumethe unionarriage of equals,mainlanders thought that Zanzibar, withpeople, would become an integral partwhichopulation ofhe ensuing years, the Zanzibaris haveuncooperative, making it quite clearintend to run their own affairs. Nyereregained control over most of therelations, although in some dealings,those with East Germany, Dar es Salaam appears
to have little say. The islanders still control their own entry and exit procedures. Since December
hen Zanzibar reluctantly joined the East African Community, services such as income taxpost, and telegraph have been integrated with the rest of East Africa. At that time,over import procedures kept the island's customs house closed for several months, while goods awaiting clearance piled up.
4. Xarume allows Dar es Salaam just enough authority on Zanzibar--particularly through thepoliceensure that the "wild men" of the Revolutionary Council do not get the upper hand completely. Most council members are either rabiduneducated gun-slingers who roam the island arresting "plotters" and confiscating property at random. Virtually all of them are in the pay of one of more Communist Xarume has never really come to grips with the long-term problem of what to do with these men. In his relations with the council he seems to have beenolicy of proceeding slowly and avoiding trouble at almost any cost. He may also see in theseful defense against theambitions of the mainland Africans.
5. Heretofore, Xarume's popularity with local Africans and the backing of the security forces have enabled him to balance the various factions within the council and to maintain his own position. In the past year, however, his grip has appeared to bein the face of rising popular discontent. The military exercise ofovember may have been do-signed to bolster his position against would-be plotters His power is still very much dependent on the support of the council, which is itself divided by personal rivalries and foreign subsidies. Xarume hasrowing sense of insecurity and has been appealing to the council for unity. Recent reports that arms and explosives have been stolen from governmenthave undoubtedly added to his uneasiness. He apparently suspects the East Germans of supporting plots against hisactor that would help ox-plain their tenuous position on Zanzibar at present.
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'.qn Dissem
Communist Economic Aid
6. The Communistsast start on Zanzibar. Prior to independence, both Moscow and Peking had beon cultivating and training Zanzibaris, many of whom later gained influential positions in thegovernment. While London and Washington were holding back recognition of the new Africaninhe Soviets. Chinese, and East Germans were quick to offer aid and moralrateful Karume welcomed them warmly. Westernfell rapidly as British civil servants left the island and their places were filled withand Communist advisers. The recent closing of the Israeli and Ghanaian consulates has furtherthe non-Cormunist presence. Today, only aof Westerners remain, including those in the small US and French consulates. The sole US aid project involves the construction and equippingmall, but effective, technical school.
illion in economic aid offeredcountries to Zanzibar is relativelya per capita basis. Communist China and Easthave been the major donors, both vying forrole. The Chinese aid program has beenmore successful than the East German one,has had much impact on the Zanzibaris mainly attributable to the severelyand natural resources of the islands,to the nature of the Communist aid.
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Chinese economic developmentprovided forillion,offered inf whicheen drawn down. Chinese projectstateeather and shoeagricultural implement repair facility,ports stadium, anthe Zanzibar airport,lanned hospitalneighboring island of Pemba. The Chineseundertaken well-drilling projects andrice-growing schemes, and have providedwhose sale covers the local costs ofprojects. Within the framework ofassistance, Peking has suppliededical assistants, five or six technician/
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instructors for tho government printing facility end broadcasting station, as well as mechanics and engineers. There arehinese on the islands.
9. Cast German aid promised to Zanzibar totalsillion, of which about S5 million has been drawn down. The principal projectsmillion housing scheme, an ill-fated fisheries program, and the construction of two dairies. East Germany has extended more technical assistance to Zanzibar than to any other country. This includes someeachers, nine medical personnel, and various advisers toministries. As ofhereast Germans on the islands, but their total has probably fallen to. As far as Zanzibar's economic development is concerned, Moscow has seemed content to let the East Germans carry the ball. The Soviets have provided no significant economic aid, although they have begun to work slowlyew feasibility studies suchailroad requested by the Zanzibaris. There are aboutoviets inincluding three teachers,ilitary-associated personnel, and che officers who man the island's two coastalof which ran aground last year.
10. The Chinese have worked assiduously atthe East Germans, and over the past year senior Zanzibari officials, including Karume, have become increasingly dissatisfied and disillusioned with East German aid projects. The officials complain that German equipment is overpriced and not suited to Zanzibar's needs; some materials have been returned. Most of the projects financed by East Germany have been plagued with difficulties because of poorand progress has been very slow. Only in the special security detachment have the East Germans builtelatively sure position of influence. The Chinese have gradually become the dominant force because of their well-managed, relatively-inexpensive aid, their ability to live frugally and work hard, and their extensive and well-financed contacts--both overt andmany influential Zanzibaris. The East Germans are handicapped by their higher living standardsreater racial identity with European colonialists.
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Dissent
record of the Chinese is not completely untarnished, however, despite their impressive progress The shoe factory is operating well belowhortage of hides, and the rice-planting scheme seems to be faring poorly. Their trade goods often have been ill chosen, and are generally ofquality. Nevertheless, the Chinese are likely to continue successfully to play the part ofdisinterested participants in Zanzibar'sand the East Germans will probably continue to suffer by comparison.
Communist Military Aid
12. In the field of military aid, both Moscow and Peking have been active They each operate separate training camps in the outskirts of the town of Zanzibar, and each provides arms for thean army. There appears to be some division of responsibility, with thehinese advisers teaching small arms and guerrilla warfare and the Soviets dealing with the heavier weapons such as antiaircraft and field pieces. The Zanzibaris recentlyhipment of Soviet arms and armored personnel carriers because they were reconditioned, unlike the new Chinese material. The Soviets areew military base on the site of anBritish airstrip at ubago in the center ofIsland. Tho Chinese have taken over the former US Project Mercury tracking station at Tunguu, where they areew Zanzibari recruits. In the past, some Zanzibari military men have gone to China for training or for short visits, but most seem to go to the USSR when extensive training is required. East Germany has provided six patrol boats and is building naval barracks.
13. Eversland military units have remained independent of mainland control, even though Dar es Salaam pays their salaries and expenses. The first attempt at integration4 resulted in the recall of the island soldiers after they looted the mainland town in which they had been stationed. Their discipline and capabilities have improved considerably sinco then, however, and within the past year mainland commanders have begun to gain some influence. The
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Zanzibar forces arc now being reorganized accordingable of organization drawn up in Dar es Salaam with the aid of Canadian advisers. The military exercise ofovember was the first jointinvolving both maInlanders and islanders, but more are planned.
on Zanzibar have been usedtraining Mozambique nationalists andut this activity is believed tosmall by comparison with similar programs on umber of Cuban instructorsat one of the island camps were withdrawnrequest, and the only Cubans noware two doctors on Pemba.
Economic Chaos
Four years of Communist aid and economic advice, combined with Zanzibar! mismanagement, have brought economic stagnation and financial chaos. The People's Dank of Zanzibar has defaulted ondue to the Bank of Tanzania, and the government-owned export-import corporation has run out of funds. Tho island's basic problems stem from governmentto control all aspects of the economy and to replace Asian workers and merchants with less-experienced Africans. For example, the take-over of the retail-trade network has led to chaotic conditions within many basic consumer goods.
Agricultural production declined whenArab-owned clove estates were parceled out among Africans in three-acre lots. Cloves account forercent of Zanzibar's export earnings and aboutercent of government revenues. Government diversification efforts have encountered resistance from farmers, who prefer the easy task of picking cloves from established trees rather than the more arduous work associated with planting new crops.
Popular Unrest
the Arabs and Asians, life hasmiserable since the revolution, but in thediscontent has also risen among the Africans
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as tho economy has deteriorated. Unrest has been further stimulated in rural areas by heavy-handed implementation of land distribution, resettlement, and forced-labor schemes. Zanzibaris increasingly blame Karune for the extensive corruption andunemployment. He has reacted to the growing dissidence by tightening security and railing about "plotters" who are sabotaging the economy. His latest scapegoat is the long-established community of Comorians from the French Comoro Islands, which he hasecurity threat. Xarume announced earlier this month that most of the moreomorians have ceased to be citizens of Tanzania, and those with important positions would lose their jobs immediately. Nyerere has subsequentlyone union minister of Ccraorian descent. Xarume has employed similar trumped-uo charges in the past to dispose of his political rivals.
Outlook
18. Nyerere has become increasingly critical of Karume's leadership, but still appears to support him for lackeasonable alternative. He hasbeen reluctant to intervene in the island'saffairs for fear of jeopardizing the tenuous ties that bind the union. Sooner or later he will probably have to do something about Zanzibar, however. The speed and tight security of last week's show of force must certainly have impressed the island's unruly elements and may have given Nyerere confidence that he can eventually assert his constitutional Even if he does decide to move in this direction, however, the Chinese are likely to remain influential in Zanzibar for the foreseeable future.
Original document.
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