SUBJECT: Possible ChiCoa Adventure
followingay be related:
area coordination/cornraunication centor inPenh is loadud with middle levol agents whothat China is going to expand initiatives in SEA.
Durr-ase and Thai nervousnessChinese dissident groups and their encouragement
by Polling, and the increased vitriol in anti-Dumeso, anti-Thai propaganda.
KVN-PL military activity in North andLaos nay bo coordinated with c. above.
a. Increased NW attacks inaos nay be air.ed at opening trans-;lehong Laos to TC.-HVM troops supplied thrukong routes. This action would put NVM and Chinese on the North, Northeast and Southeast flanks of Thailand.
Sihanouk is getting worried about thond NVN "canals in hisooking for anith tha CS.
of Chinese laborers fron NVNavailable for use elsewhere.
instability of the chiConis becoming sore evident, with the Tied toytho principal bond elf order and administrationheightening its influence
i. ChiCom reinforcement' of the Northeast Froaticr
Provinces ot India, and Indian roinforcoraonta thoro in the last two months.
ITxcopt in Tibet, which has boon quiet for conn months now, tiio CiiComs arc stirring. "Tr cross-border military adventure now from interior lines, would find India, Burma, Thailand and Laos unable offoctivoly tod. It would divert internal ChiCom prossuros to externalould let the Rod Armyxercise" and, unless done againstKorea, the CRC or Soviet Mongolia, would bo unlikely to draw mora than protests and alerts in response.s in no mood for broader involvement in Asia, and only to defend US forces in Thailand against ovort attacks would broader involvement in SEA gain sure public support in the CS.
Accordingly, the current HE Monsoon season looksood timehiCom cross-border excursion into SEA, particularly in NE Burma and NW Laos. Although their progreoa in-SEA insurgency in going along well onough, and chore is no apparent reason for ouch an excursion, the probability is, in my view, nonetheless considerable.