CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Created: 7/28/1969

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Central Intelligence Bulletin

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Central Intelligence Bulletin

CONTENTS

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South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)

Laos: There is little indication that the enemy will ease pressures near the Plaine des Jarres. (Page 2)

Egypt-Israel: ougher Israeli stance has not dissuaded Egypt from attacking across the Suez Canal. (Page 3)

Czechoslovakia: Tensions are rising between the authorities and the populace. (Page 4)

Elonduras: Troop withdrawalsey issue in the searchormula to end the crisis. (Page 6)

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i'rar.ce-Eiaf ra: The new French government will con-tinue De Gaulle's strong pro-Biafran policy. (Page Bl

Brazil: Constitutional amendments (Page 9)

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c South Vietnam: President Thieu is continuing to consult various political groups about thecabinet reshuffle without apparent haste to reach firm decisions.

indicate that Thieu desires

to expand the cabinet to include not only talented politicians from progovernment groups, but also from the opposition. Although government supporters are somewhat cool to the concept of sharing cabinet plums, the principal opposition is said to stem from Prime Minister Huong, whomall cabinet ofand with whom Thieu hopes to avoid any public split.

Thieu, in the meantime, has once again modified his election proposals ofulyomestic audience. athering of officials and civil servants onuly, the President described his offer of Communist participationtactic" to regain sympathy abroad and as the maximumhe would make to bring the Communists into serious negotiations. He declared that he would never agree to let the Communists operate in South Vietnam, but that if the country should repudiate his peace initiatives, he would step down and return power to the army.

Military activity remained light during the weekend, as it has for the past several weeks. Two battles between US and Communist troops inorps were the only noteworthy ground actions The only shelling of major cities was the firing of two heavy rockets at the outskirts of Hue onuly, with no reported casualties or damage.

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l laos: although no new major communist attacks have taken place in north laos in recent days, there is little indication that the enemy intends to ease its pressure against government outposts near the plaine des jarres.

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the southern edge of the plaine, communist forces, taking advantage of the poor flying weather, have made several unsuccessful attempts over the past week to overrun several progovernment guerrilla bases

haveecent enemy build

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in this area.

to the west, along strategiche enemy has continued to probe shaky government defenses but it is not clear whether these small-scale attacks are designed to play on the depressed state of morale within the lao government or represent the initial stagesore concerted effort to move into northern vientiane province,

meanwhile, meo leader vang pao has drawnold plan to move elements of his guerrilla force east of the plaine againstear ban ban in an attempt to disrupt the enemy's supply lines.

in vientiane, the considerable amount ofunrest brought on by the communist seizure of muong soui may be eased somewhat by the plannedof prime minister souvanna today. while sou-vanna will no doubt be bombardedumber of diverse recommendations on how best to deal with the communist military pressure, there does appear torowing consensus among the lao that furtheradvances will have to be dealt with bynot military, initiatives,

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jul 69

Intelligence Bulletin

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GEGRET

Egypt-Israel: Israel's new aggressive actions have not thus far dissuaded the Egyptians fromacross the Suez Canal cease-fire line.

Egyptian jets hit Israeli positions near the north end of the Suez Canal yesterday, apparently without suffering any losses. Although the Israelis are reported to have received only slight damage, the raid was the most successful Egyptian airstrike yet across the canal and will probably encourage the Egyptians to try further such actions.

The Egyptian action followed by one day the fifth Israeli airstrike at Egyptian positions along the canal in seven days. The Israelis have said that their new policy is aimed at proving to Nasir that he cannot use the canal or the UNhield to cover continuing attacks across the cease-fire lines. They also state that the Israeli attacks are intended to prove that Nasir's claims of victory are totally false and toood among the Egyptian people that would force the government to keep the canal quiet. The Israelis apparentlyto continue hitting Egyptian positions in an effort to convince Nasir that any escalation will result in the destruction of the Egyptian forces.

Nasir's speeches last week, however,ood of determined defiance. In addition,

(jairo regime is in less trouble tnan at otner time)ia since7 war and that for the present, at least, the regime and the military identify with

7 war.

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Tensions are rising between the authorities and the populace and, at the same tine, Czechoslovak-Soviet animosities reportedly have resulted in some violence.

As the anniversary of the invasion of8 approaches, the country has been swept with anonymous calls for anti-Soviet and antiregirae The harassed Husak leadership blames the unrest on liberals who were in power last year, ignoring the massive popular support the appeals for at least passive resistance still evoke.

The government's situation is complicated by deep popular dissatisfaction which has adversely affected the economy. Productivity has fallenesult of widespread unorganized work slowdowns, and the uncertain psychological atmosphere has led toave of buying that the economy cannot meet demands for consumer goods. In addition, therehortage of foods, especially meat and eggs, which now is lamely being blamed on Soviet,Hungarian and Rumanian suppliers. Premier Cernik is increasingly becoming the popularfor this situation.

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The police and the army have again been ordered to take energetic measures against lawbreakers,recalcitrant workers, and oarty activists and news media are toolitical "offensive" against enemies and provocateurs. There have been some arrests for production and dissemination of antistate leaflets. The party is successfullypressure on ths leaders of mass organizations such as trade unions to head off civil unrest among their members. There are reports that no newstudents or correspondents will be alloweduntil afterugust.

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matters were likely to have been discussed by Brezhnev with party boss Husak and President Svo-boda in Warsaw onuly, and with the Slovak party chief and the Slovak premier in Moscow onuly.

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Elonduras: The issue of troop withdrawals isey one in the searchuccessful OAS formula to end the crisis.

The OAS delegates will submit proposals bytonight and hope to close the foreign ministers meeting byuly. Colombian Foreign Minister Lopez Michelson, president of the conference, and Mexico's Carrillo Flores are making special efforts to get some flexibility in the Honduran and Salvadoran.

El Salvador continues in its refusal to pull its troops back from Honduras until it receivesguarantees for the security of Salvadoran citizens in Honduras. There may be, however, some withering of Salvadoran intransigence. President Sanchez has publicly expressed confidence in the OAS, and the Salvadoran chief of staff has altered his earlier hard line. He now appears resigned to the view that the OAS offers the only feasibleto the issue of Salvadoran residents in It is not clear yet whether domesticrequirements in El Salvador will preclude troop withdrawalhow of force by OAS military contingents.

Opinion throughout Honduras remains highlyof Salvadoran intentions and there hasexpectation of renewed conflict. Arally by labor organizationspolitical odds with the Lopez administrationimmediate expulsion of the Salvadoran The Honduran military command believes that

OAS will fail to take strong enough measures

El Salvador and are inclined to initiate of-

fensive action as soon as their arms and equipment are sufficiently replaced.

There have been no violations of the cease-fire, but El Salvador has violated the prohibition against5 military flights. Both sides are still attempting

arms purchases abroad.

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Foreign Minister Schumann's

[views indicate that the new gov-will continue De Gaulle's strong pro-Biafran

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on the Nigerian civil war, Schumann showed himself to be emotionally committed to the Biafran cause and critical of US actions to resolve the crisis. He referred several times to his experience as chairman of the Committee for Aid to Biafra, an influential private French organization.

The new minister also expressed histhat the US had not given more help to Biafra. He suggested that the US provide direct unilateral humanitarian support by ignoring or bypassing aid conditions laid down byactic presently being pursued by the French Red Cross. Schumann made clear that he was not suggesting that the us recognize Biafra and stated that French policy also "excludes" recognition.

For the long run, Schumann did notingleguarantees for thea solution to the war. He argued, however, that the Biafrans would not acceptolution until they believe that they are sufficiently understood and supported by the outside world.

Even before General De Gaulle came outthe side of Biafrarance wassupplying arms to the rebels. Frenchfor Biafra has continuedteadyParis has steadfastly supported Biafra With the fall of De Gaulle, therespeculation that the)rs would be altered, but all signs now point tosupport for Biafra.

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NOTE

Brazil: The government is moving aheadof the measures toimited degreenormality that Presidentilvato Governor Rockefeller last month. Thewhich has been purged of its mostis likely to be re-opened next month toa series of constitutional amendments thatin the final stages of drafting. Theintended toeturn to somewhile assuring the executive sufficientnow to Pr^vent congressional challenges such asi:the adoption of severe authoritarian measures last

December.

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