CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Created: 7/17/1969

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Central Intelligence Bulletin

CONTENTS

Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)

Laos: Government leaders are badly shaken by the failure to recapture Muong Soui. (Page 2)

Japan-USSR: Foreign Minister Aichi will visitin September. (Page 3)

Elonduras: Both countries have agreedease-fire in principle. (Page 4)

Cuba: Foreign policy (Page 5)

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India: Congress Party struggle (Page 6)

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q Vietnam:

South Vietnam: Hanoi is beginning intensive preparations toumber of important party and state anniversaries next year.

A politburo resolutionulyear of historical significance. The year includes, among other benchmarks. Ho Chih birthday. The resolution focuses on internal North Vietnamese problems and issues and gives only brief andreferences to the war in the South. Because of this, and the fanfare called for, the regime may well0 toajor turning point possibly requiring significant policy decisions. If so Hanoi's leaders may well include among next year's activities the convocationational party congress for the first timeecade.

South Vietnam; The month-long standdown inCommunist military actions continued

ulv" persist, however, that the enemy is

lanning another round of localized attacks beginning

this weekend.

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Intelligence Bulletin

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Laos: Government leaders are badly shaken by the failure to recapture Huong Soui.

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the Communists woUitf SOOn launcndrive into northern Vientiane Province7 agreed that

who apparently is is deploying his

the shattered morale of the regular government troops would make futile any attempt to blockhrust through military means. Vang Pao, despondent over the turn of events, forces to defend bases north and south of the Plaine dcs Jarres.

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a consequence of this dire assessment, * |decided to ask that Primewno is vacationing in France, bringpressure on the signators ofo intercede with Hanoi, or to returnpossibly make an effort to see PresidentBangkok, f"

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is no firm evidence that the Communists intend to press significantly beyond Muong Soui. There is little question, however, that they have the capability to do so and the virtual collapse of the government's resistance provides anb> iD^Yrs that the enemy may be unwilling to pass up. r

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Japan-USSR: Foreign Minister Aichi will visit Moscow In September en route to Washington for talks on Okinawan reversion.

Aichi is expected to take advantage of his in-wr,woe. vitation to Moscow to reiterate Japan's claim to thers southern Kuril Islands. The Japanese

realizes that

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Soviets will prooaoiy continue to avoid anyof this "Northern Territories" question, which Moscow has long claimedlosed issue.

Tokyo expects that the Soviets may instead try to divert discussion to the possibility of further Japanese participation in the development ofresources.

Tokyo's principal concern is to maintain good relations with tha USSR. At the same time, the Sato government is attempting to cast itself as thedefender of Japan's national interest; theincluding the Japan Communist Party, has been trying to exploit the Northern Territories issue.

Tokyo also views the issuesefultool in securing concessions from the Soviets on other matters, particularly trade relations.

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c El Salvador -Honduras: Both countries have agreedease-fire In principle, butover implementation could cause it to founder.

Members of the OAS Investigative Committee have been stationed in both capitals to facilitatenegotiations. Fighting apparently has not stopped, and El Salvador could be stalling in order to overrun further territory. El Salvador has not yet agreed to withdraw its troops and may wish to use themargaining counter touarantee of safety for the morealvadorans who live in Honduras.

The credible performance of theforces appears to have restored The Honduran Government, on themay now find itself under intenseto salvage at the conference tablelost on the battlefield. Inability todemands of national pride could)rs Lopez government.

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NOTES

Cuba: Fidel Castro has reiterated his adamant stand against resuming relations with the US. ress interview onuly he said that an end to the economic denial program would not be enough to satisfy Cuba. The US would have to "give up forever the role of international policeman it has assumed in Asia, Latin America, and other places." Castro

tatement he made earlier in: day that Latin American countries interested inrelations must make an "explicit andof the "arbitrary and unjust" OASagainst Cuba,

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(continued)

'Because of Ihc shortage of lime for preparation of this Hem, lhe analytic interpretation presented here has been produced by the CentralAgency without the participation of ihe Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense.

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India: Deputy Prime Minister Morarji Desai-from the cabinet yesterday after PrimeGandhi took over his key finance portfolio. Ostensibly Mrs. Gandhi's action was intended to make it easier for her to implement herproposal to nationalize the country's majormove strongly opposed by the moreDesai. It is more likely, however, that she forced Desai's resignationeans of saving face in her struggle with the old guard Congress Party bosses over who should be the party's candidate in the presidential election. The prime ministeradmitted her defeat on the presidential issue when she suddenly declared her unconditional support)rsthe party bosses' nominee whom she had earlier

bitterly opposed, i

Central Intelligence Bulletin

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