NID: RWANDA: RISKS TO AN EXPANDING UN FORCE

Created: 5/14/1994

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National

Intelligence

Daily

RWANDA:

lo an expanded LN Force

two factions are trying to set very different conditions for acceptance ofan contingent that the UN Security Council yesterday informally agreed to add toN peacekeepers already in Kigali.

Rwanda's UN Ambassador is pushingarge forccjbaJ wouldease-Crc aod backolitical settlement]

warusa UN

forte mal would freeze battlelinei and block advenes by tht rebel Rwandan Patriotic Front.

"ew UN force to luveroorc than

oldiers. T

Government troops are likely toerious threat to an enhanced UN mdttary presence. Despite RPFe Armyore oi some

omcat-effccuvc troops, who are equipped with armored vehicles, air defense missiles, antiaircraft guns, and other heavy weapons.

Earlier this year the security force* trained aad armedradical Hutu mdmamen; UN officials say (he regimeto0 new troops. The irregulars haveaid workers and could evolveuerrilla forcetaking on UN

RPFforcei are lets likely to confirm! an enhanced UN deployment.

Kigali's airport, ibc only facility capable of receiving large transport aircratt. is on the frontline between government and rebel forces-either side probably could shut down any airfield in Rwanda, and supply convoys

eVy lo,ambush in ,htare mote than

ncleared mines in the north.] |

A force based In Burundi lo protect vulnerable civilians in southern Rwanda

ako would fact senous political and logistic problems. I

utsi-dominated miliiary would be enkry

bably oui of fear of unrest among the Hutu majoriiy

- Food aid sliiprncnts reportedly already are straining Bujumbura's pun on Lake Tanganyika and.esser extent, its

T/if,

Original document.

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