NID: RWANDA: ODDS FOR CEASE-FIRE POOR

Created: 5/9/1994

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

t Director atCentralIntelligence

National

Intelligence

Daily

4

mo

AFRICA

unda:

for Cease-Fire Poor

UN commander in Kigali says thai the Rwandan Government0 civilians in addition to three newly formed battalionssent south to halt the Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Frontneither side will adhere lo the reported

The RI'F has announced ;na: its next target is Kig.ili turpjit, which is controlled joindy by UN Uoops and the Rwandan military.

Hardline Hutu military officers and ptditkiam may be trying to create the basisuerrilla force that could harass the RPF or interruitionat peacekeepers in southern Rwanda.

By expanding the numben of the armed militia that have been murdering Tutsit and moderate Hutus, the government will Increase the risk to remaining Tunis and discourage Tutsi refugees from returning. I-

Original document.

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