NID: RWANDA: INCREASED PROSPECTS FOR FRENCH, RPF CONFRONTATION

Created: 5/5/1994

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National

Intelligence

Daily

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uly

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Developments

Prospects for French. RPF Confrontation

Upandai. President Museveni publicly welcomed Ihe Rwandan PairioiiC Front's capture of Kigali and Butarc yesterdayajor step toward formingovernment. According to pros rcpons, government troops (lceing Bularc have taken Safchaven behind French lines, leaving the French less lhanm from the advancing rebel forces. Hundred* of thousands of Hutus are flccmg RPF advances toward western Rwanda.

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troops are stretched trim ana are nor prepared lo prolecl or feed the civilians pouring inio their areas of control. The battlclines remain too dangerous for international aid workers to operate.

According lo press reports. French forces were sen io Gikongoro ycsicrday and were ordered to prevent the RPF. which hasroops approaching (Jikongoro. from advancing farther lo the wen.

Pansti avked the UN to designate souihweMem Rwandaafety zone I

The rebels have accused the French of exceeding their humanitarian mandate and supporting lhe Hutu interim govcrnmcni. An RPF spokesman said ihe rebels will continue to pursue iheir miliiary objectives despiie lhe presence ol French iroops

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forces pulled hack from Bwure on Saturday when confronicd by lhe RPF. and lhe rebels will almoil certainty test French resolve again al Cikongoro. If lhe French hold their ground, lhe RPF may switch lo guerrilla laclict lo force them back to Zaire. Rwandaigh-risk venture for Prime Minister Balladur and the center-right government.oreign policy disaster appean to be in the making, the French Government will probably put added pressure on the international eommunity-both ihraughthe UNandiu lhe Western European Vaion-tn move swiftly indditional outside help in the form of troops or logistic support.1-

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