Created: 12/28/1994

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Intelligence Etlimalt

Global Humanitarian5 (yy


This National InttUirintt EtHmau rtprmnrt thaof Iht with Ihe adritt and atiUlattt of tilt USommunity.







Global Humanitarian5 (u)

Volume II: Country Estimates

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emergency reeds turn from tbe regional impact of ihe Rwanda emergency, drought, foodnd conflict* in the Greater Horn: and conflict* and foodelsewhere in Africa, prf"

Regional Impact of ibe Emergency In Rwanda

Rwanda. List year, we judged thai Ihc chances of renewed conflict in Rwanda were high. Thecrisis now under way in Rwanda is among ihc most difficult and comcfc* the world hoi faced In dccadei.f)

Before the conflict thaip-'t. the population of Rwandaillion- The ensuing ethnic slaughter has resultedillion deaths. More than halt the surviving population currently is ai1illion people arc internally displaced andallion Rwandaas (mostly Hums) have taken refuge in Zaire, Tanzania, Burundi, and Uganda. {cjtf)'

At ihe urn*ong-term Tuui refugees have moved back into Rwanda frort neigbbogng staves, takingof property abandonedose who died or fled. The Rwandan Patriotic Fronttnrxbed loan trying to provide

' Tit pnulnwiam natud ,

nmrj. Mrnaly Jiipans penent. aM Baan inCyT

ii govern, bul Tutsi control ol Rwandai likely lo be overt timedire mi si Hutus who fled into exile will attempt io move back into Rwanda bycTCtoenng low level Hutu insurgencyto keep large portions of the the fornsti French security zone, unstible.F)

TV United Nxuon* is encouraging Hutu refu-gees lo return to Rwanda, but many are reluc-lant. fearing retribulion from the former Hutu army and militia members who dorninue the refugee camps, as well as from Tutsi* who now dominate tbe government and society in Rwanda. Many undoubtedly fear prosecution for their part In the genocide. It is unlikely (hat the new Rwandan Government or ihe intcrna-lional community will be able toennce large number* of refugee* to return home soon. Hun dreds of thousands of Hutus are likely to remain outside Rwanda indefinitely. The pbyi; cal. tocial. and psychological cevastaiion wrought by Ihe massacre* and the civil wai will take year* to overcome; aocne areas of the countryside will probably remain in the grip of violence or low-level insurgency.

The totmmeoi is incapable of providing assistance to its large internally displaced and needy population. Expensive rehabilitation protects and aemining operations will be dim-cullount:

esuk of the avil conflict thai beganundreds of thousands of landmine* have been laid, mainly near the Ugandan

border. (cj*r)


Meanwhile, most region* in Rwanda arcToodnd ihe cities lack basic services. Humanitarian needs in Rwanda will remain at high level* for the foreseeable future. Fields are lying fallow, for example, because many of the people who normally cul-tivjtc them have left the country, icttf) '

Current UNConsolidatedAppeal8 million

Percent Mel: 71

Burundi The murder of Presidentutu, in3 by the Tuisi-ccntrolled miliury set off ethnic btoodlcttiQg thatany0 Hutu and Tutsi Buniodians. displaced aboutillion citizens within Burundi, and drove ateople into Rwanda. Zaire, and Tanzania. In all. more thanercent of Burundians are in need ofassistance. Burundi's transport system, which serves the Rwandan relief cIToru, as well as its own needs, is being overwhelmed by (he immense amount of aid flowing into both countries, as well as into Zaire:

Following the Rwanda uprising inwandan Hutulied to northern Burundi. Ai the same time, thousands of Burundian Hutu refugees have returned from Rwanda.any of the refugees do not return to their farms to plant crops by the end ofhe food shortfall could be significant, (jtf

Ethnic tensions in Burundi are approaching the levels witnessed in Rwanda before the April massacres began.mor incident could cause communal violence to erupt again and the rwwer-sharing coalition government could

Burundi military coup. Tensions andviolence could leadoup by the Tutsi-based military against the HutuBOvemnKTrt. If one occurs, it would fuel widespread communal violence and likely willassive new influx of Hutuinto Rwanda. Tanzania, and Zaire. Tens of thousands ol Hutus and Tutsi* could be killed before civil order is restored.

Communal tieltnee. Violence fromincidents could spiralationwide calamity, resulting in massive deathslood of refugees. Violence would spread ouiekry to Bujumbura where humanitarian relief efforts for Burundi, Rwanda, and Zaire would be severely hindered.

Tensions linger on. Burundi Tutsi-dorninaicd miliury and cT^nan^mfP politicians could continue to maintain their control over the Hutu government. Undercenario, ethnic violence wouldat low levels with periodic attackspopulation flows,

Most Recent UN ConsoHdared Appealillion

Percent Met: 62

Zaire. Last year wc reported that the collapse of basic services, ethnic strife, looting, andhad reduced Ihe availability of food and that maJnmriiioo and disease were at highSince thai lime, tbe influx of moreillion refugees from Rvranda and Burundi has

aggravated local Zairiaa cibnlc and poliucal tension* and has fun ha strained the country', deteriorating economicem;

eople are internally

Although agricultural potential i*J food product ion is estimated to be lower thanevels.

Malnutrition continues at high levels,among urban children. (Orf)

The new government of Prime Minister Kcngo is attempting to address these problems, but Presideot Mobutu Is obstructing these efforts, and the situation is noiJikcty to improvecamlyc/fi

A major outbreak of ethnic violence or military unrest Is possiblehould violence break out in the volatile eastern provinces, in ibe southern province of Shaba, or elsewhere, the international commuoiiy would face major logistic difficulties delivering aid to largeof dislocated Zairian. spread out overast geographic area. ty)>

Most Recent UN Consolidated Appealmlllhm

Perctni Met: 13

Conflict and Drought in the Greater Horn of Africa'

Sudan. The humanitarian crisis in southern Sudan is continuing due to on ongoing civil war that has gone oo forecade. Last year we reported that the intensified government

' US AID. Im IW. iMiq nVVMtfeu

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DjibM. Bnuea. Eihoe-u.windi, Senues Sidax

AMea' " OwuerHcm of

offensive against ibe rebeJ* was hindering relief ciioitN toillion southerners. Civil war andillion Sudanese in need of food, medical, and caber aidut large-scale deaths were averted. WC expectesumption of fighting between government and rebel forces, as well as intra-SudanLiberation Army infighting, will disrupt relief efforts In ihc south and cause moredislocations Moreudanese have sought refuge in Uganda. Zaire. Ethiopia. Kenya, and the Central African Republic. (CKF)

Due to Ihc good harvests, the number of people in need will be reduced to apcnwimatelyigh levels of malnutrition already are being reported by relief workers in widespread locations throughout Ihe south. Elsewhere in Sudan, displaced southerners and ncetliernersDeed food, medicine, seeds, and tools, (cytf)

Funding and logistic problems, bureaucratic delays in granting clearances for humanitarian flights and pennits for relief workers, andand rebel cbstruction of relief efforts probably will inwrrupt deliveries of aidand exacerbate humanitarian problems. In addition, relief efforts will be constrained by the presenceillion landmines, mostly io southern Sudan. Both sides in the

conflict are continuing lo lay rninesapid


Current UN Consolidated AppealI million

Percent Met: S6



Utai year we reported thai wide* spread hunger and disease eould recur if inter-national uid were halted. Abouterceni of Sooaln are ai risk Morerc internal iy displaced, andrc otherwise in need. Because ofcontinuing effort by reliefwith two year* of rclalivdy goodis not In imminent dangerood crisis. The World Food(WFP) plans to augment donated food wiih lecal purchases, (uf

transportrundown in many pans of the country due lo lack of maintenance -iserve ihe country. Landmines are present along the Ethiopianbut major roads In soulh and centralare relatively clear, (cjrf)

Relief efforts arc increasingly being hampered by tut Cretan fighting, banditry, and threats aad attacks against relief worken. Moreover, relief organizations are being forced to negotiate with whatever local faction controls ani

Somalia has no political or economic structure in place at ihe current time, and pruapectsasting political settlement are poor. (Csrf)

Factional fighting trill increase in Somalia after UN forces deport byeterKtratiag security has already prompted some relief agencies to suspend operations. Intense fighting wouUrge number of Somalis now dependent on food aid and reduce the anticspaicd increases, in agricultural output. Hunger and disease could reappear, although not at2 level.

A'r.'nc. The situation in Kenya is stable at the current time, although ethnic tensions continue io simmer and persistent drought nfDicii the

northern part of the country.f Kenya's IS million people are internally

Kenyaaven for morefrom Sudan. Ethiopia, and Somalia. Due to continuing instability at horne. refugees from Somalia and Sudan currently in Kenyawill not! qui/ uic Moreover, their numbers may well incrcaae. exacerbating Kenya's food deficit, (parf)

Current UN Conterltaattd Appeal (Jumrarymtlhcm

Perceni Mel: $4

Elhiopbt enJ Eritrea. Early crop failures m

illion Ethiopians and Erhrcans ir.

Deed of food aid. but largc-scak deaths were averted by timely internaliooal relief and

impros'ed rains. Millions of people remain in need of assistance, however, because of low agriculturalhronic food deficit, and weak distribution systems in the region that will persist for the foreseeable future. Both countries are resource-poorears of war. and their capacity tonmeet. Moteillion landmines arc prtsea: in booh countries, primarily in the north

In Ethiopia, sporadic rainfall hai caused food shortages. In addition, the spreadest called army worms during the put several months has addedbe problem. Somenilboo8 perccat ofisplaced internalry, orin need.illion metric tons of emergency food aid were delivered

Despite the good harvest, (he country willood de6cii of atetric tons

(ion in

In the past decade, annual grain product Eaaaopu even inth bumperfallen below

i. I

Eritrea is alsoumanitarian eroer-prncy.illion*6of Ibeillionrefugees, internally displaced, or otherwise in need- Eves in good yean. Eritrea'a harvest meet* only aboutercent of tbe population's food needs. Despite expectationsood harvestS. dependence oa donorwill continue.cetric ions o! food aid likely will be neededdownetric torniU/

If ihc morethiopian refugees tn0 in Djibouti,0 in Kenya rcium home, aid will be needed io help rcirtie-graicarge-scale repatriation to btiirca ofefugees in Sudan is unlikely because Eritrea's economic and soera]cannot absorb them

Elsewhere In Africa

Angola. Emergency food needs in Angola have increased significantly since but year's Esii male, largely because domestic foodhas fallen off due to iniensc and wide-ranging civil conflict, which prevented planting and harvesting in many areas of the country. The UN estimates the number of Angolans affected by civil unrest and droughtil-Doit aboutercent of the population (cspj

During mostontinued fightingaid deliveries throughout Angola, since both Ihc government and rebels used foodolitical weapon. Although UN agencies and nongovernmental organizatioris (NGOs)relief assistance had improved access earlyeginning in June iheand UNtTA frequently deniedfor relief Bights destined for the other's territory:

The United Nation* believes the potential for mass deaths due to starvation and roalnufrv lioa-related illnesses lo be much higher thaa in Rwanda,

Even in areas without conflict, the delivery of humanitarian aid i* hindered by the country's poor transportation system. After almostean of Civil war, mosl highway* are in poor condition; the few sections of eaiiluig railroad are virtuallyailway acridtat in4 in whichitchhiking passengers died was attributed


iu laulty cquipmcmoorly maintained railbcd. In addition lo problems wiih pilferage and corruption. Angola's ihrce pons and Luanda's airfield offer limited storage, and caigo-handling equipment is scarce. Many vii-lages. major cities, roads and bridges, andof licctarcs of farmland contain landmines, (ti)

Despite the signing of Ihe Lusaka Agreement and the inmlcrncntaiionhaky cease-flte inivilian suffering willfor some time. Angola will need subsuin tial food donations until the agricultural and transportation sectors are rehabilitated. The need for international food assistance will increase if

Current UNConsolidated Appeal: SIS8 million

Percent Mil: 69

Liberia. Last year wc repotted that tbe chances of renewed conflict were high. Rival armedhave increased their competition forcontrol, and divisions among them will intensify along ethnic lines. Liberia's political and economic structures have disintegrated. In all. nearlyercent of Liberians are ateople are internally displaced; more0 are refugees in Guinea. Cote d'lvo-irc. Ghana, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria: andre otherwise in need. The population of the capital, Monrovia, has grown fromefore the ciyil warillion cutrently.

The conflict among numerous armed factions in Liberia frequently make* il impossible for international relief organization* togain access

lo roost of the couniry. Consequently,assistance for shiftingprobably several hundredbetween fighting factions in the interior of the country I* inicrmiiient or nonesisieniof landmines have recently been laid, making humanitarian operations even more precarious, isjtf)

The4 Akosomboihe latest attempt to end nearly five years of civiland will do little tourther deterioration of the security situation. The failure of the warring factions to abide by tbe agreement may lead in5 to aof the regional peacekeeping forces, the Economic Communily of West African Stales Monitoring Groupnd UNobservers. This coukJ, in turn, cause aescalation of the lighting, putting the entire population at risk,

Current UN Consolidated Appeal0 million


Sierra Leone. Last year we reported that the government teemed lo have tbe upper hand against Ihe rebels but that the end of thewas far from certain. Today, Sierra Leone does notully functioning gov erarceDt Food production has hailed in major farming areas, and the economic and social infrastructure of about two-thirds of thehas been destroyed. Aboutercent of the population is at risk: as many5 million people are internally displaced due loin tbe region borderingrc refugees in Guinea and Liberia.FJ

Deteriorating security cortdiliorn caused by renegade soldiers, bandiis. and rebel* havehumanitarian aid efforts in much of the countryside. Growing prospects for violence in Freetown and ethnic conflict in the interior of the country will leadeterioratingsituationhe Sierra Leonenn mililary, which lacks transport assets aod trained personnel, cannot give much assistance to humanitarianj#

Mozambique. Last year, we reported thai, until the former combatants are disarmed, ain security could lead to an acutecrisis. Since then, demobilization in4 and the successful elections in October have defused some of the threat toHowever, the couniry is still awash in uncollected arais, and the prospect ofdemobilized soWer* resorting to ban-dilryignificant ihrcat to security and the efficient resettlement of refugees and the displaced:

* Mozambique remain* susceptible to cyclones. Cyclone Nadu twept across Mozambique inashing the nonbem province of Nampula andthe country's principal northern port city of Nacala.tullion people were affected, (cwj

Since the elections, intemitional attention has shifted to restoring tbe counuy's torn social fabric and destroyed mfrastrucuirc. Theand international agencies have begun to reseitle Mozambican refugees, and many have sclf-repatnaied. The total number of ihc population at risk is 1percent of the populaiion, as compared toercent several years agoefugees remain in Malawi, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and

Tanzania;ozambican* *lill arc internally displaced, andeople are otherwise in need, (rj*f)

The presence of as manyillionhas slowed economic reconstruction and refugee repatriation. AN major roads, allany power pylons, aod some farmlands were mined during the war. HfJ

Byhe population in need within Mozambiqueto riseillion, including reluming refugees, demobilized soldiers, and internally displaced persons. When the UN Operation in(ONUMOZ) withdraws inhe peace settlement between the MPLA and REN AMO will be severely tested. Widespread civil or economicresumption of civilmake ihe countryandew wave of refugees.

Current UN Cooioiidated Appeal:illion

Percent Met: 63

South Asia

Afghanistan. There is no functioningIn Afghanistan, and the civil war iseavy loll on Ihe country's residentofillion. In addition, atillion Afghan refugees remain outside the couniryesult of the war that beganbe civil war wUl continue at leastccording to the United Nations and other relief workers, the situation in Kabul is one of ihc worst humanitarian crises in the world. A


of Ok ciiy has been In effect since Im winter, and civillana" stockpiles have been de pic led:

Without emergency aid, more thaa half ofesidents win be vulnerable lo tevere food shortage* and epidemics, (cytf)

Sincetousaods of civilians have been killed or injured, hundreds of thou arais have become home lets, and as manyillion have been internally displaced The civil war has halted repatriation efforts for the refugees, most of whom currently are located in Iran and Pakistan, The approxmuielyil-Item Afghan refugees in Iran are better off than then counterparts to Pakisun. according to Embassy reporting; most have been ictegraied into Iranian society.^'

Delivering humanitarian aid in Afghanistan is treacherous and difficult. Several relief workers were murderedausing the United Nations to reassess iu bunsaratanan reliefdramatically reduce iuemsve expatriates from the country. The Soviet Afghan war left ats manypread throughou! the couniry. While all provinces have been affected, those on the Pakistaniand near Kabuloat icererw

The number or persons needing aid within Afghanistan could be as highillion Ifing continues and Kabul and ils environs as well as northern cities continue lo be cut off from tuppliet this winter

Most ftecent UN Ccmolidwdillion

Fervent Met: J}

Pakistan. When fighting resumed in Afgham-staamakistan closed as border with Afghanistan ioew influx ofPakistan will remain dependent oo iaxr-national assistance as long as itignificant number of Afghan refugees. Cur-randy, moreull ton Afghani are in camps ia Pakistan. More0 of these have fled lo Pakistan noteeatf)

According3 Department of Stale report, Pakistan does notajor problem with landmines, although there ore mine Melds along Its disputed border with Kashmir. (ijy

Sri Lanka. The civil war in Sri Lanka between the Sinhalese majority and Tamil separatists cceitinuet to inflict hardsbipa oo the popcla ttoos of Use north and eaa. where mat ot Che fighting ta occuning.eople, mostly Tamils, have been internal ly displaced by the conflict; morere refugees, mosdy ia India. Transportation capabilities and the country's infrastructure nave largely been neglected for the past decade. Landminesignificant ihrcat to toe population and to reliefbey have been heavily used on the Jaffna Pcninsuli aodesser degree in other areas contested by government forces and the imuirgenU. (pf


Bosnia and Htrzrgotina. In Boini* and Herzegovina, ihe threat of large-scale deaths due io starvation and exposure currently remains low. although the need for continued humanitarian assistance remain, high forsafe areas and displaced and vulnerable populations. Approximatelyillion Bosnians are at risk. Thereillionrefugees outside the former Yugoslavia and in neighboring former republicsillion internally displaced persons and others In need in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Over the last year, three trends hove dcs-cloped:

More food is now available, and food prices have fallen to near prewar levels in some areas. Relief agenciestons of food aid to Bosnia andduring the first eight months ofcomparednetric tons delivered in the first eight months

Health conditions have generally improved due to increased food and medical supplies, lower levels of fighting, and improvedA WHO study in early4 found no severe or widespread malnutrition in the country, despite delivery shortfalls over the winter. Except in the Bihac enclave, war-relatedchief killer during thehave declined

Aid agencies have begun shifting resources to rehabilitation efforts. However, aid deliveries to people in the easternarajevo, andwell as to the displaced.

the elderly, andsocial eases continuing.

At ihe same lime, relief organizations still face major obsiacle* ia delivering food and supplies.

Tbe Bosnian Serbs periodically attach or oihcrwiac obstruct relief convoys and air-craft, as well as cut off water and power sup-plies. The Bosnian Government and Bosnian Croats obstruct deliveries and distributionesser degree.

of il based on black-markc-tecring of humanitarianbecome endemic and will continue toajor problem

With anillion landmines. Bosnia and Herzegovi na have the most severe landmine problem in Europe. Mines have been placed around (be major cities,along roads, and in religious buildings, schools, and other places where refugees might congregate. (y)

In addition, donor funding shortfalls have begun to plague relief efforts:

coatributions to the UN Highfor Refugees (UNHCR) for the first half of this year wereercent less than in the same period last year. (y>

Rclief officials attribute the decline to lack of progresseace settlement,from the Rwandan disaster, and sporadic media coverage. Despite the funding shortfall, relief agencies have pre-potiu'oocd food stocks in sufficient amounts to cover basic needs throughCpB-f

The abdlity of international agencies to meet future humanitarian needs in Bosnia and Herzegovina will depend on the level of

_-mv-i -

and (he outcome of negotiation* (oihc conflict One of three scenarios couW deselop;

fighting a, pmiMUrek. IfcdYcosive* and coumeroffensives fail to resultecisive shift in the militaryaid requirements for the isolated "safe"Bihac. and the easternwill remainid needs for the contiguous areas of the rederatkm of Bosnia will continue to decline if access into central Bosnia is not cut off for an extended period of time.

escalates. Should increasing bosiili-lics force UNPROFOR to withdraw. Bosnian Serb forces, emboldened by the unlikelihoodifting of the arms embargo, wouldmilitary operations In order totheir territorial gains. They would attempt to expand the northern cceridor.tbe eastern enclaves, and tighten their siege of Sarajevo. At tbe very least. Bosnian Serb forces would cut aid access and utilities to these areas. In addition. Bosnian Serbs would probably interdict major road routes to central Bosnia, cutting off aid deliveries.

political settlement. In the unlikely eventolitical scuJement is reached, staort-tcrm relief needs may increase as reliefbegin lo resettle refugees and displaced persons. Needs would then transition from emergency relief to rehabilitation and recon- -struction as normal commerce resumed, fcan

Croatia. The UN. European Community, and <whcr international relief organizations provide

.iid to moreosnian refugees

mostly in refugeesupport the Ciuatian Government's effort to assistisplacedany of whom live

with friends andhe Croatianrevived substantiallyhough political sclilcmcnts of boih ibe Bosnian and Croatian conflicts will be necessary beforecommercial activity can be resumed and large-scale repatriation and resettlement lakes place. Negotiation* at ihe end4 made halting progress oo economic confidence-building measures between the Croatianand the Croatian Serbs who control approairaatclyciec* of Croatian territory in the Krajina and eastern Siavonia:

progress continues to be stalled on negotia-lions io reestablish Zagreb's asnJiority over the UN Protected Areas and to resettle some Croats to the Serb-controlled Krajina. anof fighting between Croatia and the Krajina Serbs is likely.

are greater than even that Zagreb willilitary offensive to retake all or parts of Krajina during ibe first half of

idening the Balkan war and involving troops aod tupport from Serbia andAn outbreak of fighting could affectof ttrousands of Serbs in the "Republic of Scrt> Krajina" and Croatian* near ihe front-lines, resulting in more internally displaced and refugees from both communities.

ajor war crept in Croatia. UN humanitarian operations in Bosnia would also be affected; relief assistance lo moreillion Bosnians could be cut off.

illion landmines are present in the former conflictUN Protectedtbe number may be growing in areas where low-intensity conflict continues.

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROMf MKcdoDid remains vulnerable to economic, external, and inicreihnic pressures. Its economy has suffered from lhe Joss oftrade due io UN sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro, as well asrude embargo by Greece (begun in. which oils off (he country from its only outlet to the south. Although unlikelyhe potential exists for tbe influx of as manythnic Albanians from the neighboring Serbian regions of Kosovo, should an ethnic incident there lead tbe minority Serb authorities toolicy of ethnic cleansing. The economy is already ai lhe brink of collapse, and ihe governmeni is unable to care for its Bosnian refugees. An influx of Kosovar Albanians would overwhelm Macedonia's capacity, add to tensions between Macedonians and minority Albanians, and result in ihe need for large-scale humanitarian assistance, (cjtf)

onsolidated Appeal for idl of the former Yugoslavia1 million

Perceni Met: 94

Central Asia and the Caucasus

Georgia. Last year wc reported that civil con-rlki in Georgia would continue, withcivilossibility. Althoughcivil war was avoided and is not likely to break out over the time period of thisdue to ihe deployment of Rus-Man peacekeepersecurity tone along (he Abkhaz-Gccrgiancountry remains Ihiciuted by unresolved ethnichere are morenternally displaced per sons. Key transportation lines remain blocked, most industries are operating at minimum eapaeiiy.evere energy shortage hasthe'

ercent of thein need of humanitarian assistance, and mosl of the population relics on Western grain for bread production. Moref ihosc in need are Georgian*from Abkhazia;

4 graineorgia wasetric ions, well below average, far less than3 harvest.

FAO estimates Georgia will require moreillion metric tons of grain from4 tos ofetric tons bad been donated, pledged, or secured through credits and loans.

Delivering aid lo Georgia is precarious. T'hilisiaccess routes north io Russia arc coo-trolled by Abkhaz separatists, and those west io Black Sea pons are frequently disrupted by banditry and eleciriciiy shortages. Natural gas shutoffs from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan and Russia will persist this winter because ofarrears. For (he next year. Ihe need for humanitarian assistance in Georgia will remain at the current high level whether oreace sctilcrnent is reached between Georgia and Abkhaz. Civil strife and localized crime and violence are likely to continue to disrupt com-tnercioJ activity and relief efforts. (cKP)

There are more0 landmines present ih Georgia, primarily In the Gumisla Riveroutside Soxhutni. the Kodori Valley, the Och'anch'ire region, the Gali region, and along the western portion of the Enguri River, (vy

Armenia. Last year, we reported that Armenia was all bin cut off from ibe outside world because of civil strife and the diversion of relief

In Georgia,blockade by Azerbaijan, and Turkey's restriction of the delivery of supplies. The restrictions by Azerbaijan and TurkeyMinefields are present along Armenia's borders with Turkey and Iran. The only over land supply route open for food aod fuelis the deteriorating and dangerous road and rail system extending from Black Sea ports through Georgian territory, which fat rife with banditry and subject to imerdktion by ethnic Azeris. The natural gas pipeline transitsterritory near the Azerbaijan border, where it is vulnerable to sabotageoffs from suppliers. Armenia's humanitarian needs have been lessened by strong expatriate financialbut widespread hunger will be avoided this winter only if Georgian railroads faction,'

The UN estimates that morefromRussians andIn Russia and Azerbaijaa0 Armenians are inaemaUyGovernment and NGO networks arc well established, but shelter programs fall well short Of meeting the needs of imentallypersons and refugees:

The acreage planted for grain4 wasercent lower thaninter wheat plantings were down byercent, and cereal imports have decreasedhird ofevels.

FAOinimum grain import requirementetric tons for4 to5 Donors arc expected to meet the grain shortfall needs in Armenia for


s unlikely that ccodiiions alongorder will change SibsunuaJlyhe need for emergencyassistance will continue at existing

levels. The absence of energy supplies isthe Armenians vo experience another cold, dark winter, (yr**

AttrpaUan. Last year, we reported thai the war in Azerbaijan over as cthnk Arrnenian-dorni-na'cd enclave of Nagonso-Karabakh hadWe estimated thai living conditions would women as winter set in and fooddwindled. While both sides havebeenease-fire in place siccche Azerhainn ecoaccny hat slipped notably in the past year and will continue to declinebakh Armenians have conquered one-fifth of the country, including some of (be best agncalturaj land, and have control oflarge canto* lanitairt intoThe resettlement of Azeris to Nagomo-KarabaWi or Armenian-occupied territory will remain problematic even as the various sides Continue lojcckeythe4 Organization for Security andin Europe (QSCE) agreement:

Civilians lis ing near lhe frondtnes of war ronest risk from sporadic shelling. There may0 or more landmines in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Tbe affectedstimated byated Nations to total moreerceni of the population.illion refugees and internallypeople will continue to rely almost fully on mserriatiunal relief. (ur

The country's worsening economic crisis has placed an increasing number of the ware fugee population ai risk, incaidingn the Nakhichevan endit. where Armenian blockades have left an caumaicd SO percent of

population without wage income. Domestic food shortage* will become seriousread has already become more scarce on th; market duerain shortages. The cutoff of ihc rail line from Russia Ihrough Chechnya will exacerbate shortages of basic food stocks. Relief agencies are expanding efforts toaid lo vulnerable populations throughout the country,ensioners and disabled. Baku has appealed to Iran. Turkey, and Russia for food assistance, andel'tsin pledgedionclrie ions of grain. (ew)

Current UN Consolidated Appeal for Armrnia, Azerbaijan, and: SIillion

Fervent Ma: 40

North Caucasia. Last year, we reported thai lumicd local warfare in Russia's Northregion was likely lo result in some refugee movements and hinder relief efforts to ihe entire Caucasus, Conflict in Chechnyastopped pipeline and rail shipment* south into ihe Caucasus bynd by ihe end of November full-scale conflict had broken oat between forces loyal to Chechen Freadent Dudayev and those of Russian-backed local oppositionists. Moscow's recent directmay resultrotracted conflict that could draw in sympathizers from neighboring North Caucasus republics, creating refugees and internally displaced persons,n1)

Tajikistan. Last year, we reported ihal,uccessful UNHCRisplaced and refugee Tajiks, eftorts io reintegrate many of these returnees wereand the humanitarian situation wouldworsen. Large amounts ol intcmaiiccial ussistance4 helped to avert acrisis,ussian- and Uzbek-dominated CIS peacekeeping force is guarding against the resumption of civil war by insurgent Tajik oppositionists operating out of Afghanistan. Continued high level* of food assistance are cspcctcd lo forestall widespread hungerut regional, clan-based violence could break out following parliamentary elections in February, leadingollapse of Ihe UN cease-fire and isolating as manyajiks, particularly in Ihc Vbdii Gharm (Garmhe Kulob region, and the Pamirs;

4 grain crop wasercent below normal, and the Tajik Govemmcnl lacks the resources to procure much of the estimatedetric tons of grain, which areimported annually. Byrain impon* had shrunk to less than half ofconsumption needs, most elites had run out of flour reserves, and armed bands were attacking the food distribution system. (OW)

Continued nigh levels of internationalwill be required5 to provide and distribute food. Following the president: ol alec-lion* inhich were widely viewed as fraudulent, interested CIS donors, primarily Russia and Kazakhran. promised io help make up for the grain shortfall ofetric toosppf

Althoughercent of the refugees andpeople wbo fled duringave since returned, several hundred thousand remain Inadequately housed and fed in the southern Kulob region. Security andfor these returnees is Inadequate, and their reintegration into Tajik society has been slow.0 are living under

squalid conditions in camp* In northern internallymany in the isolated Pamirs. Thefrom Tajikistan who have fled to the former Soviet Union number more thannativemost arc not expected to return, (yf

Current UN Consolidated Appeal (Apnll,on

Perctnt Met: 46

Latin America-Caribbean

/fain. At present, Haiti is the only country in the region in oeed of emergency humanitarian assistance. Last year, wc estimated thateconomic conditions tex the country cuulJ bring calls for emergency relief and stimulate sudden and massive migration that would necessitate direct US assistance. At least 2Hanians currently arc receiving emergency health and water assistance;illion are also receiving food fromagencies:

Lack of agricultural Inputs, principal ly seeds and fertilizers, have hindered vegetableand industrial poultry production has been largely abanckased due to lack erf feed.

Unemployment in rural areas, home to oSe majority of Haitians, may be as high asercent.

In urban areas, declining prociuction foe export has driven hundreds of firms out of business and cost thousands of workers their

The international community's EnergyRecovery Planf Implemented, should ease somewhat Haiti's most pressing economic won Tbe plan pledges0 million in the nextnooths.coming from the United States.

Still, Hwieeply divided society and the new civilian government in Port-au-Prince is not able to maintain order on its own. If the United Nations Mission in Haiti fto take over from the US-do mi-nated Multinational Forcearly inless effective than use MNF in main-taming order, societal violence could increase sharply. This, in turn, wouldhreat to the distribution of international aid and coulda renewed outflow of refugees. Even if UNMIH Isessssaaasl order, moreillion Haitians probably will depend on inter-nauccal assistancecan*)

Middle Faal-North Africa

Iraq. Iraq will require substantial emergency humanitarian assistance in the coming year-Relief efforu by the UN and other international aid agencies are directed aiillion of Iraq'sillion people. Last year, we reported Chat the dependence of the Kurds on inlernauonal assistance hade to Baghdad's embargo of ibe north. Reliefestimate lhatin Kurdlsh-controllednorthern Iraq now require assistance, (cjef)

T^gJ dUpt^Ct^DCOl (af ^LbbbsBB LbbbbbbbsIi000

Iraqi Kurds doe to fighting in August and September and an influx into northern Iraq

'wot fim.

4 '

of0 Kurd* fleeing the lighting in southeastern Turkey this summer are uddlnghc pressure on relief effort* in theore cnlicai situation could developidciptcuJ in: ri-Kurdish fighting ic*umc* or if "Operation ProvideiMOOlinucd and Saddam Hustetn makes incur*ion* into northern Iraq. Even if the oil embargo and Ihc sanction* regime were relaxed, theneed* of the population at risk would remain high. low)

On the surface, ii appear* Ihat tbe humanitarian program in northern Iraq is beginning lo have an impact Irrigationstillin scope have transformed previously barren valley* into productive lands. This year's wheat yield was greater than last year's, tbe Kurd* are again growing their own rice, livestock population has grown, new construe-lion projects are under way. and villagers are returning io their homes. Bui ihe unprovemt at* in northern Iraq arc fragile. The economy remain* stymied by tbe double sanctions, and iht fluctuating dollar-to-dinar rale reflects an uncertain political situation. Iraqi shelling along the border area* has escalated in recent months as Saddam continues to look forays to increase pressure on the Kurds, fsjif)

Planned food assistance from reliefshould be adequate to meet the winter needs in northernisurplus food (rowing region.neiric ions will be needed from4 to' This figure includes food thai relarf orgamzaiion* will purchase inside Iraq. Lower resource* for the UN program will Leadrawdown of personnel associated with both security and relief programs. The

United Nations already plans io cui its guard farce in Iraq to ICO personnel TheUckof oonor coninb irtion* io ihe food relief program* will probably result in cutbacks for ihecdPrggrax and it* implement ina partners

la central aad southern Iraq, the United Nations estimates thateople will require limited food assistance inthe same number as last year. One-hundred thousandbias are still at risk in southern Iraq,["

Iraq still denies the UN and other reliefaccess lo the southern marsh areas. The regime has constructed causeways to divert water away from the marsh areas, burned marsh reeds, destroyed villages, and forced tbe inhabitants to I

An0 millionpresent in Iraq. Minefields exist along thewith Iran. Kuwait, and Turkey. Within Iraq, there are extensive minefields in

Current UN Consolidated Appeal9 million

Percent Met: 25


' Hiis noMbrruatt eonac *ca nxyrt teeeoinm'.^ol

Tlx need for humanitariannrowing and probably will incrcoM over (he next year. Economic conditions, already poor, were fuitherby the civil warS diplomats and other Western cAsenen:

The lighting, whiches. derm, caused an0 casualties and has overwhelmedeaith care system.

ordnance and nines laserand some hinterland areas, Baking overland travel dangerous, particularly in the Aden area, (enf)

Although relief organizations have operated in Yemen for years, (he lacktrong central government has placed relief workers at risk:

Westerners are subject to threats andby local tribesmen; many of tbem use hostages as bargaining chips to demandfrom the government.

Islamic militants may view Chrtsuari relief agencies as ananroot. MetncersofiheSissen

fourided by Mother Teresa, reponedly ha^ been harassedannsu in Aden since the war ended. (C

Current UN ContoUaateiAppealillion

Penetii Mel: 27

East Asia

Cambocxa. After more thanears of civil war and internal unrest and an investment of rnorethanillion inN

pcaccliccpliig operation, lessercent of the population is at risk: fewerambodians remain internally displaced; twice (hat number are otherwise in need. The living standards remain low throughout most of ihe country. However, sporadic righting between government troops and Khmer Rouge msur-

io flee from their homes In May. formore rhanC0 Khmer fled their tillages in BataaVabaBf Province when local

Rouge razed several villages. Lasi year, we reported that moreefugees who had recently returned would need foodu UN rations Ianhe repatriation has been completed (c

International assistance to Cambodia has been hampered by Phnom Penh's political infijjhtinjt. corruption,ack of qualifiedLow-level lighting poses particularfor donors distributing assistance outside the capital. Tbe Khmer Rouge and government forces sometimes have harassed NGOs and destroyed their fjciliues.

The Cambodua Mice ActionN-

lemporanly suspend operations ta May when jovcfj|BHtroops das*'llC4tdksfUfl^icfi dunnsya skirmish wilh Khmer Rouge troops.

is olJlK

In no country io the world have unclearedhad such an enormous adverse Impact as In Cambodia, where one ineople hasimbandmine. The mines are found mostly in the *estem and northwestern parts of New mines continue to be laid.

assistance will be needed in Cambodia during the next year due towarfare in theilapidated infrastructure, crop shortfalls, and the govern-meni's serious budgetary Urnitatlcos. UN foodhas ended, but UNHCR is helping0 returnees to hod land, and UNDP is providing developmeni assistance, (yff)

Burma. Inountryotalofillion people, counterinsurgency operations, and repressive government policies continue to dislocate and bring liaidship tominorities. Halfuslim Rohingyas who fled to Bangladesh in2 remain there; the UNHCR now isthem at the rateer week in an operation likely to be concluded by

Moreolitical dissidents and members of ethnic minorities who have fled political persecution or attacks by the Burmacrossed the border

and live in camps in Thailand. Harshpolicies and fighting between the Burma Army and ethnic- or nurcotrafticking insurgent groups may periodically increase the need for hunraniiariajj assistance as more people flee iheir homes,)

Burmaerious problem with uncleared landmines; all sides in the infernal cooflk^hsve used them over the pastears, (vy^



International Humanitarian Agencies and the Red Cross Movement

UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs (UNDHA)

The UNDHA wis created? aa jr. attemptmprove UN coordination of humanitarian relief, lis mandate Includes providing assistancenveloping countries to prevent and warn against disasters, as well as to rtuiigaie their efleets, improving Ihe UN's standby capacity for dealing with emergencies; launchingappeals; and improving the uansition from emergency relief io rehahiliiarion.3 eipendituresiluon. {p/

Tht Office of Ihr UN High Conimlaslonir for Refugees (UNHCR)

UNHCR. rnandaied to protect, repaaiaat. aad resell*ometimes also coordinates assistance programs for displaced persons. Ils budget has increased dramalieaily0 rallsoa4 toillionNHCR, which is represented in moreountries. Is financed almost entirely by voluntary contributions from governments and privatemall arnouat comes from the annual UN budget and may be used onlyefray administrative

Tht World Food Program (WFP) WPP. the food aid arm of the United Nations with offices ineveloping countries, provides both emergency aid and locg-ierm

' hwaataaal desekftt

o tit isnpcM is Wave tntv rwnry due

Srir nl ocrseraM. smut conflitu. or civil ttife aie" -In ii<tt or h<millndin|eird ll 'hey reomfd |

development assistance.4 expenditure.

for emergency assistance and aid toisplaced persons2 billion. Fiasd-ng comes from voluntary contributions from gov-er nmenis and other UN agencies in Uu form of conunodities. cash, and services. I'-V'

The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) UNICEF provides assistance, particularly nutrition, health, and education, to children and rncahen in developing countries, and to swims of disasters UNICEF has officescountries. Its total budget3illion,ofillion was expended on hunumiiarian relief. Fundingof voluntary ccettributions fromand from private donors. (uL-"'

Tht World Health Organization (WHO) WHO. whichide range of health- related fuirtjons. furnishes technical assistance and aid ia bumanitarian emergencies3 eipenditures for humanitarian relief werenuUion. Funding is provided by assessments oc UN rncmber stales, voluntary cocuribuiiCBs fromnd contributions from other UN agencies and private donors.

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) UNDP, the world's largest developmentnetwork, operates as the United Nation's ccnual funding and coordinating agency for technical cooperation. It maintains moreesident Representatives in developing

countries, many of whom serve as UN country team coordinator* in complex humanitarian ctticrgcncies. Il* total budget3 wasillion, ofmall but increasing portion was expended on rehabilitation in humanitarian emergencies. Funding comes from voluntary conirlbutions from governments at an annual pledging conference called by the UN(uj/

International Organizatloiu

The European Emergency Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO)

ECHO, the emergency humanitarian assistance organization of toe European Unionanages and coordinates all EU relief efforts. One of the largest coiuributors of humanitarian relief, il allocated8 million for humanitarian aid3 and budgeted about the same ajnountunds come from itsember states, many of whom alsomlaierally to humanitarian emergencies, {xty/"

The International Organization forM)

IOM arranges resettlement and repatriation for refugees and migrants.ts budget3 million, ofubstantial portion was for enters, er iassistance. Operational funding comes from voluntary contributions from governments, and administrative funding comes from mandatory eentributions from iu member governments, {ibr

The International Committee of the RedRO

Establishedhe ICRC predates any other agency in Ibe international humanitarian system and has unique attributes that set it apart from both international organizations and NGOs. Over the last century, it has been

assigned imponam official responsibilities set forth in the Geneva Conventions andProtocols, including protection andto victims of international and itilcrnal civilnique mandate of the ICRC is to monitor ucatmeni of prisoner* ofumanitarian icsponslbiluy not shared by any other relief organization. When conflictstabilize, ICRC turns over assistance operations to National Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies and other NGOs. (jiy

The ICRCs tradition of neutrality, impartiality, and independence gives it credibility. Its com-ntilmenl to operating with the couseni ofparties elicits belligerents' cooperation upoint but can impede its access topopulations. ICRC adherence to its well -established principles may also limitwith other organizations Ihat do not share iu tenets, ivy

The ICRCrivate, roocpendenicomposed largely of Swiss nationals and supported primarily by Western goveramenu.3 expenditures for international disaster relief9 million. (uy

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (II KC)ederationational Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies that provideto victims of natural disasters and armed conflicts in their countries or in countries in which theyarticular interest The scale and nature of tbe Federation's involvement in erncrgeacy relief operations have grownin recent yean.4 Emergency Appeal seeks to assistillion persons inountries.3 ru expenditures onrelief3 tzullion. iffy***

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