Directorate of Intelligencer! December- IN
The Implications of Gomulka's Quator
Wladyelaw Gomulka resigned yesterday aa party first secretary and has been replaced by Edward Gierek, party-chief of Silesia, Poland's industrial heartland. The 'new. leader will probably striveore open and responsible style ofbut basic policies will remain the same.
The new party chiefadio andspeech to .the nation shortly after theof the .change.. Gierek was critical of tho steps taken by his predecessor which had led to. the crisis during the past week. He promised to remove badly thought out conceptions in economic policy which had loci to the situation. He indicated sympathy with the peoples' problems, and announced that the polltburo will in the next few. dayshow to improve the lot of families.in theincome category.
Gierek did not indicate any intention of rescinding the price increases on consumer goods which had touched off tho disorders* Nevertheless, he held out hope of ameliorationtatement that next yoar's economic plan, and that for the entire five-year period, would have to be reviewed. He promised to work for improvement of the lot of women and youths, who were leading demonstrators in the past week, ond of the chronically poorsituation, but simultaneously stressed Poland's limited resources for these tasks.
tiotet This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Currentand coordinated with the Bureau ofand Research* Department of State and the Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense. NLNlT
Mandatory Revfew rs
Gierek mado no allusions to outside causes for the recentign of realism which could auger well for tho future. Instead he promised to consult with the lower echelons of the party, "the workingefore taking major new steps. He also indicated that active participation of all strata of society outside the party will be sought. These promisee will be hard to fulfill, at leant initially.
CUerek said all the proper things concerning loyalty to the Soviet Union. He was, however, neither effusive nor fulsome. The population will understand that Poland's relationship with the USSR is not changed. TASS hasummary of Gierok's speech for home consumption;
So far there has been no indication ofto the changes, but if the majority ofreturn to work today, the departure of Gomulka will have served its purpose. Yesterday, eventhe political changes, the country generally was quiet.
New Leadership's Takeover
The process of GonuUcafs replacement may
incu Hmtuion'. To tho newiy convunofl controlthe situation looked grim. Anarchy still reigned in Szczecin, and workers were still on strike there as woll as in tho riot-torn tri-clty area. Aof work stoppages and protest demonstrations were reported nationwide, and rioters in Gdansk had been colling for Gomulka's scalp, but the regime had givon no sign of backing down on the price and wage changes which had been the proximate cause of the disorders.
after the changes woreminister of health reported that Gomulkaill and would be hospitalised "for aof time." His statement citedwhich do in fact figure in Gomulka'shistory. We cannot confirm, however, thestatement that the illness "struckSaturday. In any event, the simultaneousof Gomulka's closest colleagues clearlypolitics as well as health was involved.
Character of tho New Regime
new leaders are clearlyofman politburo, which makesbeen party bosses of key industrial dlstrlots
or associated with industry and labor on the national level. Four of them hold key posts in the party leadership's executive arm, the secretariat, thus assuring control there.
the two bodies constituteof nationalepresentingof party opinion. Indeed, Bastwho was the first publicly tosent "cordial good wishes" to theleadership."
reportedlyoodMoscow, and the Soviets probably welcomed him as
the party's new. chief. Some of the Soviet leaders probably do not know him very well on an individual basis. In any case, they probably were reassured by the choice of some of the other new leaders,the defense minister, who are strongly pro-Soviet.
Foreign Policy Prospects
The development of relations with Host Germany, which was getting offast start after Brandt's treaty-signing visit to Warsaw ten days ago, is likely to slow down now as the regimeits attention to domestic affairs. Gomulka hadigorous role within Warsaw Pactin favor of positive response to Bonn's Ost-politik, often crossing swords with Ulbrioht on this issue. Gierek's first statement on this subject is brief and cautious; he soys merely that, with the aim of promoting peace and security in Europe, "we entered together with other socialist countries tlie road of normalization of relations with the German Pedsrai Republic." The East Germans for their part are certain to claim that theest German treaty, by blurring the ideological line between East and West Europe, contributed to the upheavals in Poland, and this argument may have some effect upon nervous conservatives in Moscow.
Polish policy toward the United States is not likely to change in the immediate future.
the Polish party, and the success or. Polish security forces in containing tlie disturbances, it isthat the USSR has thus far given seriousto armed intervention.
rs (0Original document.