HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS9
Sqrict Potrolcun Industry
USSH It second only lo the Ihitcd States inof crude oil and natural gas. Tho Soviet Unionpotential resources of petroleua, both onshore andthat could Mfce iteasing producer oftheecades.' However, at least one-third
of these reserves are bcated in permafrost regions of Siberia and the Far North where exploitation will be difficult and costly. Exploration and development of these reserves and transport.of the petroleua to najor consulting regions willnot only siioblo investment, nuCh of It in nodern technology and equlpncnt, which is not available In the USSR.
announced goals for production of oil and gasconstruction of pipelines during the present fire) appear ambitious. The new plan calls forofillion tons of crude oilS, withof the total Increase duringear period toKest Siberia and froa the Mangyshlak Peninsula in The annual i oil production, If the planfulfilled, will have toillion tons, some ISt
tore than the recordlllionear attained.
The plan also providesubstantial increase In the delivery of crude oil from the USSR to (he Conaunist countries of Eastern Europoa totalillion tonsomparedillion tons durlne but no mention isof the expected level of exports to the West. As oil Is the USSR's largest single earner of foreign exchange, every effort probably will be nade to BSirtatn oil exports to the Ron-Coaaunist world, at least at current levels.
Estimates of Soviet oil production, consumption, and trade during re shown in attached table. TheindlcatodS represents the lower Unit of the planned range and probably is the maximum that will be achicvod.
To achieve this level of output large-scale import* of Western technology.'and cquipmonc, along wi.th substantially increased investments froa domestic sources'will be required. Moreover,forecasts of supply and demand in the USSR and Eastern Europe suggest that supplemental quantities of oil vill have to bo imported fron non-CommunistAR, Iraq, Iran, and Algeria, if the USSR is to maintain the recent level of oil exports to its markets in the industrialized countries.
he Soviet tanker fleetessels vithtotal capacityillion deadweight tons (DMT)boutf the world tanker fleet. The avcrag* taaker in the Soviet fleet0 DWT, less than half the sire of an average tanker In the world fleet,0 DWT. The largest Soviet tanker0 DWT. The Soviets are still designing their-first supertanker,WTtha first of which is shceduled to oiter service Only one Soviet port, Novorossisk, Is capable of handling tankers of this size. The tonnage of the Soviet tanker fleet has grown at an average annual rate ofince it, is expected to grow at aslower rate.
The Soviet tanker float is itilited close to capacity in oil trade with Western Europe and Japan and with Cuba and North Violnan. The Soviets have little tanker capacity available for charter to third parties except for occasional backhaul voyages from the Persian Culf after trips fron the Black Sea to the Far East. They alsomall aaiount of charter service for other Communist countrlos and the UAR.
verof the USSR's oil exports to non-Coramunist countries was transported by tanker, about half ln Soviet-flag vessels. ubstantial portion of the remainder of tho seaborne exports is sold on. basis and is delivered on vessels under control (charter) of the consignees.
Estimated Trade in Soviet
Million Metric Tons*
to Eastern Europe
Level .of Exports:
Other Communist Countries
* Crude oil and products expressed in terns of equivalent crude oil.
esidual quantity necessary toupply/demand balance. This oil, presumably destined for Communist countries othor than-the USSR, wouldorresponding quantity of Soviet oil to naintain exports to non-Comaunist countries.
Cof-itunist ;-Original document.