INDIA - PAKISTAN SITUATION REPORT( AS OF 1200 EST)

Created: 12/16/1971

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CENTRAL TWCKI.LIGEHCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence | 61

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MEMORANDUM

Situation

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War Unilateral

Eaat Pakistan and 'Indiase-firc onWestern Front

PrjLme Minister Gandhi told ajtoday that West Pakistan forces inhave unconditionally surrendered. said'the surrender was signed in DaccaEST, aVid added thai; Indian troops wouldin Hjau^lsny .longerchoy Although the prime minister's speechor-ientcd toward the. East Pakistanher -declaration that India is fightingaims may imply that the Indianwilling !to negotiate the end of the war inunless tho Pakistan Government inofr.tnon,

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fact, the Indian Government hasopen-ended.unilateral cease-fire alongfront as0omorrow. the New(Delhi presa, Mrs. Gandhi said thatinstructed Foreign Minister Swaran Singhthe cease-fa rr. in the United j

n Iho western front and would not attumpt to seize Weal Pakistani territory. (This leaven opdn the ponnibility of uttcapting to take territory jin Axad Kar.limir, on area over which India has never formally relinquished claim.)

4. tinGandhi spoke, Hadio Pakistanthjut fighting had stopped in East Pakistan following :an agreement between tho local Indian and Pakistani coiunijiiiicrs; the broadcast did nol mention surrender. It is cloar, however, that the Pakistanisvo agreed to Indian terms.

5." President Yahya Khan,efiant speech to the nation lliiu morning,etback in the east, but said "if we fail back from one front, it'does notthat we have lost the war. We shall eventually conquer. The people of East Pakistan will continao to struggle against thoof the aggressor. We tell our brethren In the eas]t: be patient, wc.will continue Apparently reusing to accept tnof East Pakistan, Yahya is quoted as saying that hn willew constitution onnrftmber that willto "both wings" of Pakiutanj he pledged to continno'r with India until the occupiedare taken back, i

fi. USn Dacca report tliat no one is in effective control of the situation! Crowds are roaming tho streets shouting "Jai Bangla" and firing weapons in the air. Kany people are being killed and woundedesult of fighting between Bengalis and scattered Mujahiu/Huzakar/Westelements.- Indian General Jacob has said ho will impose martial law ao noon as sufficient reinforcements arrive.

MiniitUir ilcr.ignatti Hurul Aium IMS hoard speculation that President Yahya Khan may be removed- Amin thinks Yahyaad lender

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who brought;Pakistan Lo its presentthat his removal would be beneficial. Yahya as "one of the most hated men" Amin believon Hint he will remainminister, even if Vnhya is deposed; heto see-Sultan Khan removed as

secretary. {Nurul Amin said he moy visit China soon in order to appeal directly to Chinese"leaders. Despite assurances ol support from the Chinese ambassador in Islamabad and President Yahya's* continued assuranr.nn that Chinamin does not believe that the Chinese will act to snvu Pakistan's position in East Pakistan.

Military Si'tuatjcm in the East

8. Even though Dacca has fallen sporadic fighting appears to be continuing in the more remote areas of the province. This is to be Gxpected because the Indian* had previously destroyed the Pakistani radio nut in East Pakistan and many of the troops probably have not received word of General Niaai'c surrender.

Situation in JMtJte*t

9. Heavy fighting continues in the Sialkot area of wecit Pakistan.^

_ he Pakistani town ol cargarh has been surroundnd by Indian troops but has not yet fallen, 'ranks have beenextensively in the aroa and casualties have been heavy on bqth sides.

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an Lahore, might be

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the Pakistanis am massing short distance south ofbuildup scale offen-in this area that would involve the Pakistani First Armored Divlr.lon. Thin would bo the iirst timet one of the two I'ukiatani armored divisions has been committed to battle in its entirety. Previous uae of tanks by the Pakistanis has beenelatively limited neulu.

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-Other sectors of the front have been relatively quiet.

Military Aid to PaViutan

12.

a was delivered to ('nkiatan onecember. The

m tho total number of aircraft

supplied Waal twelve.

Landed at Dhahron, Saudi Arabia,ecember enroute to Pakistan. Sor.it; of the plauei. had Jordanian pi lots and others wero reportedly guarded by Pakistanis.

Minister Dhutto announcedhis pountry would conyider asking the USassistance if tho war with Indiathe west, lie said hi* authority Cor arequest would be two multilateraland other bilateral agreements with thoOftJAr however,thr-door stillomprehensivewith India.

Mrs. Gandhi'sresident Nixon

Mrs. Candhi hasetterNixon that was released to the press! Tho letter defends India's actionsPakistan and asserts that the war couldaverted ifreat powors had realizedpeople of Dangla ncnli wore being deprivedlife and liberty, "not to mention theof happiness" and had searched for afor reconciliation. She charges that the

war could have been avoided "if the power, influence, and authority or all the states and above all the United States had gotten .Sheik.Mujibur RahmanShe enya that India's plea for the release of Mujib was not: considered practical because pic "US coujd not urge policies which might lead to the ovurthrow of Yahya Khan." She nska, "was the,relouuo or even uncret negotiations with Mujib morn disaolroua than tho wagingar?*

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adds that India has boon deoply hurt luendos and insinuations" that India id thft crisis and thwarted the emergence is. She expresses hope that the. President mst let me know where precisely wo have before your representatives dealch hnrnhness of language." Thd letter :es that India sooks no territory of what

; Pakistan and "does not want any territory

of West Pakistan."

k

Bangla Dean-

Cambodia, Malaysia, anduncommitted.

Chinese Accusations

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16. China has strongly hinted to India thai the surrender of the Pakistani Army in East Pakistan should now bring the war to an end. In an official statementecember, Peking for the first time accused India of wonting not only to annex Easttandard Chinese charge, but also of desiring "to annihilate all of Pakistan." The Chinese also haverotest accusing Indian troops of intruding into Chinese territory from Sikkira onecember for reconnaissance purposes. New Delhi today rejected the Chinese protest as "totally without foundation."

17. Peking isl basically relying on political moves to deter further Indian military action in the wost, however. Overall, China's statements and actions concerning the crisis in the subcontinent remain restrained. Although the

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The fieourf ty Council, which wan scheduled to convene at iOJu this morning, hay not yet hegun debato. Intensive negotiations arc taking place in gtivato, but these are complicated by the fact that thero. are five draft resolutions formally

tho Councilixth, of feted bynformally among Council meiabe

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oceiabflr statement nays chat if New Delhi's aggressive actionnot checkedtlier countries adjacent to India will be in danger, it at no point explicitly poxndian actions hreat, to Chinese security. Thin restraint, coupled with carlior remarkshinese diplomat in Islamabadvirtually discounting the possibility of direct. Chinese military intervention, reflect Peking's appreciation of iLs limited ability to alter tho course of eventy in tha subcontinent and its apptc-hnnsion about Jncrcaned Soviet pressure should China drastically inenvaso its support for Islamabad

' At the UN^

that there arc efore the Council And ais being circulated informally amonghe primary tocufirV dr.tfe, because it may bo the-least susceptibleroat-power veto. Italleasc-firo .on all fronts with relutivaly noiv-coiltentioua language on proipccls Cor an Hast Pakistan voli-tictX settlement.

ouncil, which was scheduled hag not yet begun

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