INDIA - PAKISTAN SITUATION REPORT (AS OF 1430 EST)

Created: 12/17/1971

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

Directorate of Intelligence

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

xridia-pakigt!an' situation rapor-t CAs0 est)

Po^-eease-FiV^ Military- AgfcivifriQs

I. Fighting on the western front continued almost up to-the start ofSTwith each Side apparently hoping to gain as much 'territory asbefore the.war ended. Word that the fighting had stopped in the west came from Pakistani GeneralCandeth at his.in:Jullundur. The OS consul in Lahore reported, however, that steady artillery fire wasours after the cease-fire.'to the Indian press, India holds0 square miles tff west Pakistan to Pakistan's sixty square miles of Indian territory.

2v Following tho cease-fireherea number of serious violations by each aide,air strikes. These.violationsin both intensity andew weeks to tho normaloccasional clashas between patrols along the

3/ The press reports that Dacca isarnival mood, despite scattered street fighting and attacks by Bengali mobs on non-Bengali.minority groups and other collaborators. Indian officers and local Kukti Bahini leaders are tryingut there are pockets of Pakistani soldiers unable or unwilling toenior

Indian Amy officors aro awaro that they have been unable to prevent revenge killing but appeartourfew.

4. OS offioials in Dacca report that roving bands of Mukti Bdiini have been seen around the US consulate this afternoon, seeking out West Pakistanis for .revenge. So far the violence, which is random andtdisorganized, has not been directed -against the consulate, rn relative terms, however, the violence has diminished since the morning hours.

_ ' Indian Commander Aurora'said today that he hod allowed thousands of Pakistani soldiers who surrendered to him yesterday in East Pakistan to keep their arms for their own protection. Local resentment towards the Pakistani Army was so great, he said, .that tho Pakistanis "would have been butchored otherwise.*

6. Chargss of cease-firo violation? havebegunj the commander .of India's eastern forcofi said today that some VaKiscani soldiers in outlying areas apparently had not recoived instructions from their headquarters in Dacca and were still fighting. These included, he said, units at Khulna,iles southeast of Dacca, and near Sylhet and Comilla in tha north and oast.

'- ources in Now Delhi said today that India has suffored more0 casualties in the war onounded,iasing. Ofere killed in the eastB6 in the west. There have been no figures from Islamabad, but Pakistani losoeo are generally thought to be much higher.

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Uiewestern front. Although.publicly loyal torivately most "of her party would have preferred India to add to its territory at the expenseot Pakistan, particularly inAzad Kashmir and Lahore,

9. Defense Minister Jagjivan Ram,for'.the' cease-fire offer, .asserted'Minister "was responsible forhe oppearnd reluctant to take 'a linetoandhi and when thebrought up the/subject of Azad Kashmir,toldenough is enough,'" For herMrs. Gandhi has told opposition leadersare no conditions on the cease-fire andof any areas conquered would be subjectat the peace table.' If Pakistanagree with India's stand during those.she said that the' fight would'some additional saber rattling ruled out.itoubtful that India wouldhostilities. andhi was attempting

to mollify hostile opposition leaders and itls likely that -she -doss' not anticipate the "need to make.good on hor words.

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rs lVe^kWiaboled rumors that the Sovietscertain equipment in India as *shear

nonsense." Ho further stated that he" would notingle foreigner' piece of equipment in India. "If our men' have to be trainediece ofill send them there to beo said;'- t

' action-to jthei Ceas^Fixg in'FaKitt-tan- akistan

11, mall/People's Party demonstration against Yahya, General NiasX,and theook place today in Peshawar. The Northwest Frontier provided large;numbers of personnel to West Pakistan forces' in-the east and the loss of East Pakistan will probably result in greater bitterness in this region than in other areas of

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Wast Pakistan. Even in tho rest of West Pakistan, reaction to Yahya's acceptanceease-fire has been negative/ and there hasroat deal of criticism of hie leadership. '

The USslamabad reports -that there has boen continued appreciation for US support.to Pakietan and indications ofover the Chinoso failure to do more. The embassy has alreadyew reports,suggesting that the;US had "restrained"-Pakistan from all-out fighting in the wast and hadacceptance of a; cease-fire.

13: US officials ini Islamabad report that the Pakistani Army is loso than happy with itsin the west. enior Pakistani officer said ho thought the majority of officers would have proferred to fight on rather than accept India's ultimatum.

that Yahy'a was finished after/this debacle as percent of the officors would no longer back him. here isailor among the luiiitiiryarge part of tho poorer classes that Yahy'a chould have committed sulcido after making his speech yesterday.

14. No US official'has reported seeing Yahya for several days. Foreign Secrotary Sultan Khanopy of Yahya'sto Ambassador Farland prior to the Presidents address -to tho nation. Sultan Khan said that Yahya had arrivedirm position concerning.the cease-fire; no other mention of the President was made during the interview which lasted approximatelyminutes.

15. Leaders of Dopttty Prime Minister designate Bhutto's Pakistan People'sP> In Lahore have 'told, the' US consul that Bhutto maV- noto take power under Prosident Yahya because serving ,under him might bo too mucholitical liability According to. Kobar.her Hassan, the local PPP chair-nan, the party will come out in opposition to.tho coaae-fire, thus identifying with the common man.

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Apparently, one objective of Bhutto's speech and walk-outecewbor at the UN Security council was to set him apart fromegime and. policiea.

10. Hassan expressed doubt that tho Security forces in Lahore would be able to impose law and order should trouble erupt. Hassan aaid that the man on the street had not Ibeen psychologically prepared to accept defeat and would look for lie ranked likely objects of public wrath asthe) China;he US; andhutto.;

More- on KuanQtsov's conversations -

ster Kuanotsov encouragca tne Indians to confine their objectives to East Ho advised thera not to try to take any part of West Pakistan, including-ftaad Kashmir, nu^notaov indicated Moscow; was concerned about the possibilityreat power confrontation over the subcontinent and fearad tho longer the war lasted the.greater was the;risk.

sorae bf;Hoscow's Easternare already referring to thehd bulk of reporting" continuasthat Moscow will move cautiously The Soviets are concerned aboutImage and would prefer to waitcountry such as Britain or Franceto recognize.

At the''

UN Security Council is scheduledshortly, .having boon delayed onceby intensive private consultations onat lastCouncil. Most prominent among these textsdrafts backed by the' OS and the USSR. proposal callsurableceaso-fire to rosain in effect until troop

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withdrawals are implemented. The Soviet alter-nativo, among other things, calls for an immediate transfer of political power in tho oast. As hostilities near anhe Council finally may be able to take action, but languago on political prospects for East Pakistan may still prove non-nogotiabla. I

p'* The hoad oCelief operations in fcatt Pakistan, .evacuated from Dacca onecember, has told thojus he' thinks there may soonery eenous food shortage. Heass relief program will be essential in East Pakistan once peace is fully roatored. Acknowledging that the DB9 need to work through the Yahya Khan government oeforo tho war began had posed "understandable" Problems for relations with Bangla Dosh officials, he nevertheless considered tho UN teams the beat equipped to move quickly. The ON official agreed with the US consulate at Calcutta that the voluntaryCtosh,toi--aro generally in good standing with all parties and could be very

This is the last scheduled situation report to be issuod onecember. Tho next scheduledbe "is9uodonecember0 onecember. Special situation reports may be issued at any time.

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