SOVIET DEVELOPMENTS (TCS NO. 3201)

Created: 5/24/1972

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Top Secret-

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence2

SOVIET DEVELOPMENTS CONTENTS

Page

The Summit: Stress on

Initial Soviet Comment on German

ikely Date

Soviet Press Virtually Ignoring

UN Secretary General Waldheim to the

Soviets Trying to Prevent UnitedPolicies Toward the

Soviet Friendship Treaty with

The Summit: Stress on Substance

rush mandate for his policies from the CPSU Central Committee, Brezhnev almostseized the leading role in substantivewith President Nixon. Nevertheless, his solo encounters with the President have beenwith meetings including Premier Kosygin and Podgorny. The attendance at the Kremlin dinner by all twelve Moscow-resident Politburo memberson-Communist head of state (Deompidou andach). Thisthe importance of the visit and presents an image of unanimity and collectivity.

In keeping with joint emphasis on concrete achievements and substantive talks, Brezhnev and the President held their firstcant two hours after the letter's arrival on Monday. In the same vein, banquet toasts that eveninggave short shrift to niceties and instead bluntly addressed the potential significance of the talks and tho issues dividing the two sides.

umber of agreements already negotiated ot nearly complete before the summit, the leaders decided the first day to publicize them as they were signed. Agreements on joint action against disease and for environmental protection were announced onay: agreementsoint space venture and scientific and technological cooperation aretoday. Press reports suggest that trade agreements will be announced on ThursdayALT agreement on Friday.

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Initial Soviet Comment on German Treaty Ratificatior

Soviet media reaction to the ratification of Bonn's Eastern treaties has been generally bland. As expected, the Soviets have praised the treaties and their own role in securing ratification. Each article repeats the generality that the treaties will facilitate positive changes in Europe, but specific improvements are not mentioned.

Some of the Soviet commentators give passing notice to the difficulty of the ratificationwithin West Germany but do not elaborate on the details of that struggle. Opposition is generally portrayed as comingmall group of revanchist obstructionists. The CDU as an entity is notpossibly because Moscow realizes that, given the situation in Bonn, it may soon be necessary toood working relationship with the CDU.

The Soviet press so far has not discussed the controversial Bundestag resolution on the treaty or the prickly question of the Soviet response to it, although the existence of the resolution was notedASS international broadcast. Even this notice was oblique and slanted, with TASS quoting partest German press agency report to the effect that the resolution "does not make any changes in the rights and duties following fcom the treaties and corresponds to the letter and spirit of che treaties.".

Although Soviet media have made onlv passing reference to the Bundestag resolution,

.. oviethighly incensed. Soviet Embassymaintains that Moscow will nottext, which he describes as "good only toupy toilet." He claims that tho to abstain in the Bundestag vote USSR of any moral obligation to respond. "they fthe Germans I have

actually spit in our races" and that "we will doto keep Urandt as chancellor and the Germanout of power."

2 4 May ;

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Appears Likely pate for Signature of the

Final Berlin Protocol

Brezhnev told US officials today that the Supreme Soviet will ratify the treaty with the FRG onay, adding that the Berlin protocol then should be signed. Brezhnev readily agreed to Secretary Rogers' suggescionune and argued strongly against any further delay. The protocol is to be signed in Berlin by the four foreign ministers, just before Chancellor Brandt leaves topeech at Harvard commemoratingh anniversary of the Marshall Plan. Douglas-Home and Schumann have yet toune, but neither appears to have commitments elsewhere.

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Soviet Press Virtually Ignoring Vietnam

Soviet media coverage of Indochinahas fallen off markedly since late last week. The Soviets continue toew routine battlefield reports, but the last significant Soviet commentary on Vietnam appeared onay. The Pravda editorial issued that dayeaffirmation of support for Vietnam, and anarticle noted that any improvement in Soviet-US relations "would not be at tha expense of any third countries or peoplesNotthe Soviets have ignored recent Northstatements denouncing the President for "every day and every hour sowing disunity in the socialist camp" and criticizing British and "certain Western circles'*o internationalize the Vietnam issue.

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UN Secretary General Waldheim to the USSR in July

The UN announced Monday that Secretary General Waldheim will visit the USSR for several days in raid-July, fulfilling the pledge made when he entered officeanuary to go to the capitals of the five permanent members during his first year as SYG. Waldhcim has visited Washington, Paris, and London; arrangements for him to go to Peking reportedly are being made and could be announced in the near future. The Moscow talks probably will beour d'hottifi after the summit. In addition, Waldheim may opt to place special emphasis on the Middle East and the UN role in the search for peace in the region. He is pushingN-sponsored Middle East peace conference, leaving open the question of superpower participation.

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USSR-EC

Recent gleanings in

Moscow suggest that the Soviets are willing toto veiled threats to try to prevent united European Community policies toward the East. They are also still trying to discourage the development of relations between the EC and China.

Premier Kosygin recently asked the Frenchminister how "other countries could follown the Community. To his tentative answer that an "observer" in Brussels might be called for, Kosygin noted that any such observer wouldCEMA, which would be the instrument eventually to negotiate trade agreements with France and the other EC countries. mphasis on Moscow's wish to continue to deal with the individual members of the Community rather than the EC as such was backed up by the warning that France's "special privileges" deriving from its bilateral arrangements with the USSR would have to be reconsidered should agreements with the EC supplant bilateral dealings.

The concern over the Chinese wasa queryoviet Foreign Ministryaabout "rumors" that China

would send an observer to Brussels. The official said EC acceptance of an observer from Peking would be an "unfriendly act."

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Friendship Treaty with Bangladesh Probably Not Immi. nent

Since shortly after the December war, there have been occasional reports of discussionsa Soviet friendship treatv with Banaladesh. The latest of these

claims that Bangladesh willyear treaty with the USSR similar to the Soviet-Indian treaty signed last August. According to this report, che treaty will not bc negotiated until after Premier Kosygin visits Bangladesh, and no date for this visit has been set.

The report seems plausible. The Soviets wouldreaty with Bangladesh, although they probably are not pushing the issue at this time. The Soviets are anxious that the Pakistanis, Indians, and Bengalis sort out the problems remaining from the December war, and reportedly have urged all parties to the conflict to make the concessions necessary to get negotiations under way. oviet-Bangladesh treaty now would provide Pakistan another excuse to stall such negotiations. Moreover, it might harm Moscow's warm relations with New Delhi. The Indians were annoyed with Soviet efforts to Ingratiate with the Bengalis and are determined to remain the predominant foreign influence in Banaladesh.

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