WEEKLY REVIEW: AFTER MUNICH

Created: 9/15/1972

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The WEEKLY REVIEW, issued every Friday morning by tht CONTENTS {ISrileiligence. reports and analyzes wgr.ll. <ent ck-relopmenu ol the wee* through noon on Thursday It frequently includes material coordinated with or prepared by me Office of Economic Research, the Office of Strategic Research, and the Directorate of Science and Technology. Topicsmore comprehensive tieatmenf endpublished vrcwateiy as Specujl Reportsted in the contents.

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AFTER MUNICH

strikes at Arab terrorist bases three days alter the Munich killings arc probably only the beginning ot an intensified Israeli effort to eradicate the fedayeen as an effective threat. No major ground action by Israeli forces intosanctuaries has yet occurred, but thisa definite possibiltty, given the obvious intention of the fedayeen to keep the pressure on Israel and focus international attention on the Palosliman cause.

FIRST REPRISALS

In wide-ranging air attacks, on* almost reaching the Turkish border. Israeli aircrafteptemberotal ofargets, three in Lebanon and eight in Syria. Israeli officials said the sites were all 'odayoenguerrilla concentrations, training camps, storage areas, and new fedayeen marine basos. The extent of the damage and casualties is not certain, but someircraft took part, and the Israelis estimate they killed orersons. Some of the casualties were civilians, which, the Israelis claim, is unavoidable because Ihe fedayeen place their installations inside or near Palestinian refugee camps. Israeli aircraft struck southern Syria latereptember, and again the next day when they shot down threendourth. The Syrians had attacked the Golan Heights.

viv, in effect, has declared open season on the fedayeen. Minister of Transport Peres spoke of not resting "until terrorism isMinister of Commerce and industry Bar-Lev said Israel should "crush them and annihilatehief of staff General Efazar spoke ofcontinuousot one "started today and finishedla?ar addod (hat air attacks were nol the only means of fighting the saboteurs and that Israel will use "many and various means" against them. Prime Minister Meir vowed before the Knesset oneptember that Israel would strike at terrorism "everywhere our hand can reachnd the Knesset affirmed thisnanimous resolution.

In preparation for future action, the Israeli Defense Force has moved eight ofm. guns,ange of aboutiles, into the Golan Heights. Israeli officials have laid all blame and responsibility for the terrorism on the host Arab states and those supporting and oncouraging

Ihem. indicating that Arab governmentincome in tor thoir share ol Israeli attention.

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The determination ot the Israelis to end the threat of the fedayeen appears to be matched by the commandos' resolve to continue terrorism and sabotage Spokesmen tor the fedayeen havo voiced their elation over the events in Munich and maintain that more attacks will occur some lime within the next two weeks These attacks will probably behe US and Europe.

In another fedayeen attack in Europe, .in Israeli Embassy official in Brussels was entrapped oneptember by an Arab assailant andwounded. Along the Arab-Israeli cease-tire lines, fedayeen continued to engage in sporadic attacks on Ihe Israelis in the Golan Heights and the West Bank. The fedayeen made exaggerated claims on the results, but their attacks have not yet resulted In significant damage or in any

THE ARAB VIEW

Jordan's King Husayn unequivocallyIh* terrorists* acts in Munich last week, thus isolating himself once again from theot Arab opinion. While other Arab leaders remained silent or justified the terrorist actions. Husayn in harsh terms denounced the killing of the Israeli hostages as the work of "sick minds" and expressed condolences to th* families of theold gesture for an Arab head of state. Moreover, the Jordanians apparently sought to avoid embroilment in the subsequent military clashes. There are no indications that Jordanian military units increased their stale of readiness in reaction to relaiiatory Israeli air strikes in Syria and Lebanon or to the engagements o* Syrian and Israeli fighter aircraft

Most Arab comment, bolh from official sources and the media, avoided condemnation of the guerrilla tactics. Arab news media turned squarely against the US for its veto of theCouncil resolution thai called for an end lo violence in th* Middle East. Th* Cairo pressthe US ofouble standard that deplored the deaths of members ol the Israeli Olympic team while at the same time ignoring the victims of Israeli air strikes in Syria and Lebanon.

The Egyptians, anxious not to be associated with the "traitorxcused the guerrillas responsible for the Munich episode and placed the onus for th* loss of life on th* West German Government.it on the defensive, an Egyptian spokesman reacted with considerable sensitivity to West German charges that Cairo did not fully respond to Bonn's appeals forduring Ihe Munich incident. Bitter words

have bgon exchanged, but Egypt, anxious tor gon-eial West European support now that the Soviets have left, is trying to cut its losses.

Arab League foreign ministers, meeting in Cairo this week,heme dominant in almost all Arab reaction. The ministers insisted on blaming the deaths of the Israelis at the Olympic Games on Israel's "criminal" occupation of tbe Palestinian homeland.

The Lebanese Government while expressing "deep regret" Over Munich, viewed the tragedy as an outgrowth of the Palestinians' despair and their wish to prod the international community to redress their grievances. The grim events in Munich severely shocked Saudi leaders, who privately deplored the killings and allowed scant coverage in the local media. In Algeria, early misgivings about the wisdom ot the fedayeen operation gave way to gratification that the Palestinians havo the capability lo strike boldly and throw fear Inlo the enemy.

The five guerrillas slain in Munichinal tributeuneral oneptember in Libya. Although the Libyan Government was not publicly involved, officials assisted Ihe private citizens who ostensibly sponsored the funeral services. In view of Qadhafi's strong vocal and financial support of the fedayeen movement, the guerrillas no doubt consider internment in Libya as appropriate.

SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN VIEWS

The fedayeen action at Munich underscored Moscow's limited room lor maneuver on Middle East matters. The tragedy cameime when Soviet support was being seriously questioned by many Arabs. On the one hand. Moscow could not afford lo treat Ihe killingsay that would suggest its support for the Palestine liberation movement was diminishing. On the other hand, the oft-repeated Soviet warning to Palestinian leaders that terrorist tactics arewas again ignored by Ihe guerrillas.

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