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APPRAISAL OF SITUATION: STUDY OF COMMUSIST AND EXTREMIST GROUPS IN MEXICO PRIOR TO VISIT. SECRETARY OF STATE ROGERS
THE SMALL MEXICAN COMMUNIST PARTY (
pch does not DIRECTLY COnFrOnT
government and espouses THAT njk is not the time TOR violent revolutionary action. ThE party does, however. encourage and support anti-government elements. such is students AND labor groups. IN their efforts tq gain concessions from or embarrassgovernment, mexico'S most active terrorist group IS centered IN the mountains of guerrero and led by LUCIO cabanas flARR1entos,ormer pcm member, because qf sqme local support. cabanas HAS avoided capture and has strungong list
qf successful bank robberies and kidnapinqs, plus twoVbusmes
of small army convoys mexico's volatile STODEnVs are largely disaffected with the government, led by extremists, jiNO ON occasion hilling to clash with the authorities, although host OF mexico'S labor unions ARE under sons degree of government control! some dissident groups, such As demetrio valley's followers, are provoking small-scale internecine andOVERNhENJ violence, end summary,
1, the mexican communist party (pcm) HAS reprfsented orthodox communism IN hexi co forome years. except for
THE PCms ESPOUSAL,F THE RIGHT OF COHHUNlST PARTIES TO BE INDEPENDENT OF THE COHHUNlST PARTY OF THE SOVIET UNIONHE PARTY GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE OVERT MOSCOW LINE OF PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE./
THE PCM IS LEDIRST SECRETARY*0 MAN PRESIDIUM.ENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ABOUTEMBERS./
LTHOUGH THfc PCM DOES NOT COHE ANYKHERE NEAR MEETING REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS FOREGITIMATE NATIONAL
POLITICAL PARTY. ITLLOWED TO OPENLY OPERATE IN MEXICO
4, THE PCM AND ITS YOUTH WING, THE MEXICAN SUPPORT CAUSES EMBARRASSING
TO The GOVERNMENT. THE PARTY SUPPLIED LEGAL ASSISTANCE TO
STRIKING NATIONAL AUTONOMOUS UNIVERSITY OF MEXICO tUNAH)
EMPLOYEES WHO CLOSED THE UNIVERSITY FROM2 TO
LAfE3. POLICY IN VIETNAM,/
STUDENTS DID ATTEMPT TO DEMONSTRATE IN FRONT OF. EMBASSY. BUT HERE QUICKLY DiSPERSEC BY MEXICAN RIOT CONTROL POLICE. THE pCM OVERTLY ESPOUSES THAT NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR VIOLENT REVOLUTIONARY ACTION AND CITES THE ACTIVITIES OF LUCIO CABANAS BARRIENTOS AS JUSTIFIED BUT TACTICALLY WRONG. IT CAN BE EXPECTEOi HOWEVER' THAT PCM LEADERS WILL ENCOURAGE AND SUPPORT STUDENT AND LABOR UNREST IN MEXICO. ESPECIALLY WHENCANON-COMMUNIST GROUP TO TAKE THE LEAD AND BEAR THE BRUNJ OP ANY GOVERNMENT REPRESSIVE ACTION.
5, ARTY'S PROPAGANDA CONSTITUTESMALL PORTION Of HEXICOIS INFLUENTIAL LEFTIST AND GENERALLYOVERNMENT AND' MTWy.fi PRESS AND PERIODICALS. THE PARTY'S MONTHLY lAGAiJNE "OPOSICION" CANNOT BEOPULAR PUBLICATION.
A SMALL GROUP OF
PACE 8 0M2 PAGES
demonstrated his group's adroitness at kidnaping foror the release of his supporters from prison.victimealthy guerrero farmer uho hasthe family failed to pay the specified ransom ingroup has successfully taken
on Small army units operating in Guerrero, the results have deeply embarrassed the Mexican army, which represents govern-
12, PROPAGANDA ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF CABANAS APE LARGELY CARRIED OUT FOR HiH BY SYMPATHETIC EXTREME LEFTIST ELEMENTS MHO PORTRAY HIMODERN-DAY ROBIN HOOD. THE EXTREMIST, ANTI-GOVERNMENT MAGAZINE npOR QUE?." IS USUALLY REPLETE HlTH ARTICLES FAVORABLE TOWARD CABANAS AND HAS CARRIED PUBLIC NOTICES FROM THELA LEADER, THE HARSHNESS OF DAILY LIFE FOR MOST OF
ment authority outside of mexico's major cities.
PAGE 9 OF J2 PAGES
GUERRERO'S POPULATION AND THE OCCASIONAL BRUTALITY OF SECURITY FORCES IN THE AREA BOTH REDOUND TO CA8ANAS* STRENGTH,
THERE ARE NO KNOWN PLANS BY CABANAS' GROUP TO DISRUPT THE PROPOSED3 VISIT. SECRETARY OF STATE WILL, ROGERS TO. HEXICOi
HEXICO ABOUNDS WITH OTHER SMALL EXTREME LEFTIST GROUPS, WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY CONSIDER HOLDING DEMONSTRATIONS, CAUSING EHBARRASSMENTi OR CONDUCTING ACTS OF VIOLENCE AGAINST THE SECRETARY OF STATE DURING HIS VISIT TO MEXICO. HOST OF THE ORGAN!Is. GROUPS THAT HE ARE AHARE QF HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY HEAKENED BY EFFECTIVE POLICE ACTION AGAINST THEM DURING THE LAST THO YEARS,
J.5. SUCH GROUPS AS THE ARHED COMMUNIST LEAGUEEXICAN AIRPLANE TO CUBA IN
[REVOLUTIONARY ACTION MOVEMENT ND THE FORCES OF -NATIONAL LIBERATION (FLN) CENTEREO IN MONTERREY, ALL PROFESS BRINGING SOCIALISM TO MEXICO BY VIOLENT MEANS AND SEE MEXICO'S POLITICAL LEADERS, THE SECURITY FORCES, AND. AS TMEJlR NATURAL ENEMIES,
16, SHOULD TROUBLE OCCUR, THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE WOULD BE
extremisi-controlled university and secondary students. mexico's last two major upheavals.0 ascesulttudent clashes with the government. i students in the various state universities have challenged, often successfullyi university and local authoritiesreater degree of control over these institutions. the states of nuevo leon. sinalqa, chihuahua. and puesla have experienced almost constant agitation at their institutions of higher learning, the last such incidentay between police and extreme leftist-controlled student groups at the university of puebla which left four students dead. of all the recent student unrest. that in puebla pr0bla8ly is the most serious forcentral government because of the degree of communist conjrol over the facult* and student organizations, the continuous string of violent incidents in and around the
university there, and becauseloseness to the capital makes it impossible for the authorities to ignore. the chance of the trouble spilling over into the capital by sympathetic action bt extremist groups at unah, jpn. and mexico0 popular preparatory school studentseal possibility.
PAGE JJ OFAGES
other issues khich coulo spark student violence are real OR imagined violation Of school autonomy, the closing of the popular preparatory schools,hange or no change in school admission requirements, and-political prisoner issue" MHlCH is slowly gaining momentum in leftist circles as the government successfully breaks up terrorist group's.
17 labor agitationess likely source of troublehe capital, although IN THE states internecine violencekers is common. also it took army tanks and troops totrike by sugarcane workers IN veracruz
18. in summary, no, ISSUES appear to HAVE THE degree of popular support FOR extremist elements to provokeajor incident during THE secretary's proposed MAY visit to mexico, if trouble develops, it mould SEEM more likely TOtSULT of internal mexican problehs and to originate from radical student groups rather than directly from ONE OF mexico's known terrorist OR communist groups. trouble from extreme rightist groups appears unlikely at this time because fHEY are either NOT in that DEGREE OF conflict with THE govern-
hEnt or the government Exercises some degree of control over their activities.
ield dissemibi. defatt at mexico city.
EXEMPT FROM GEhbRAL DECLASSIFICATION SCHEDULEl.2 EXEMPTION CATEGORY,, IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE DATE OF AUTOMATIC DECLASSIFICATION.Original document.