ri
THIS ESTIMATE IS SUBMinEO BV THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AND CONCURRED IN BY THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE. BOARD, j
Th* 'following inlMgittei oigc-niiorroni porriciporod inoforion oflimonr,
The CaMioinaallioanceofepoH-mint olnd Detente.NSA. ond ihe Tr^anir,
Concurfingi'i .
i ' 1i. ' 1 1
Thactor of Cannot MallloencB
1 Thal Slot* Th* OMatof. Dehntae lateilaawe Afl*ncy The OWvclor. Noiio*ol Secwty Aoancy
Tha pi.etlo'. [Kvl^o" efSecurity AWoht.y
ill' TT.j il I
Spatlol Aniilo< to Ihe Secretory el iha Treowry
The Aiahhartede-of him o* ef hh hatadarftoa.
habeina ovhide
.!
: A.ho present! regime In Greece Is showing signs of wear and tearix years! In* It still commands the essentialiofho odds favor PflpadopouloV ntrylval over (Iu
P * i i. ttw
it thl
next
Is hy no means assured. If he should go.another memlKsr of the |unta._ Jldoj nor attitudes toward he US would
It'Is even'iiwsslWe that ^rjttdorjouloi might beuly plebiscite Jot. that other junta members, resentful ofto Institutionalize his control, might seek to delay theIwlteve. Wvevcr. jtlint the vollng will take place] asthat Greece Willepublic headed Ityjailjjcxtensivc range of
past this yotej Papadopoulos' position will beened.|Yet the odds oh his continued rule will diminish with theof time; Ithe accumulation of grievances against him in variousGreek weariness with any regime too long In power. Three cate-
1 remain source! of concern to him:
enior colleagues within the regime have to oust him, hut probably will not unless and until ihandting majoror alienating
eel the regime has faQcd to carry outlcias grown corrupt, nnd isnat malts. Some zealots of this type exist, bul the regime.
its.l
* T
li
hrough Its security services, keeps close tabs on suchiK.cessful move by them Is very unlikely in the near term ot
M; ;
j:raditional pi-lltlcal forces whldieturn to ciectlccRodcrnment. but arc; virtually without power to force cluuiRche Juiita so lung as lit remains cohesive.
hc: altitudes bf the Greek people, in favor of ties wilh Kurope and the. US. will continue largely independent of whateverrules in Athens. Most Greeks credit the US with great potential Influence over Creek nffalrs and Iwlleve It hacks the junta, lliit the regime Is niglily resistant tn suggestions from outside on what it regards as [domestic Creek affairs.
I.ulos would be annoyed by public US disapproval of Ids pulitlcn plans. Such US action probably would not resultmodification of those plans or In drastic changes of policy toward tlie US. however, he prolwhly would .iomcwhat reduce cooperation on those bilateral arrangements which serve
olicy on Greek domesticasy toith than in earlier years, urgent need for strong US support.
tiiuien irritant in Creek- European enjoy smooth political relations within bf the junta, especially by smaller states,ut of some NATO committees, but
has. on balance, helped to keep the >reaklng into flame, even though some of Papadopoulos' colleagues incline toward drastic initiatives. No Creek government.is likely] to'be more moderate over Cyprus than the
present 'Oriel'
ill lii .i*
lAiity. and giving ll
t Tbr
democratic ffjnswn risen t
able In Cneee amiion wai needed, ll nmciilr
Ii Kul no dearo howachieve
ft*
oMrvi-r. the collegiate character of the regime, ihnuih wrakened. Ka< continued loestraint no hii actlvillea. The regime hot rnlixl with the acceptance of the popnlncc, partly becameeople wi*rp weary of the pnlHleal tninoh of lliend partly Incline of fivorilJe econornk'er enpitn Rnm national product grower.ii realn1 period. Unemployment It low lhank* to modeil In-dint rial erpiinlmi and migration of leorlen to Wetl em Eirrope.'
fi. The regimebeginning to experience wear and tear after sis years Ln power, some corruption has come to light; Greece is no better administered than wider the oldand many Creeks feel Ibe regime has lost its sense of purpose. Inflation hai cropped up in the past yeni indource of concern to Cieeks. There haveeveralwhichrowth In political ittrrtngt after several yrars of passivity. Papa-rlopouloi discovered amilot directed ana Inst him within the army In2 The retime bas had towith student strllrvand hoy cot ttwo-month period In lhe snrfmrnd in hie3 iheie was sn abortive challenge In llie regime from within the
he regime seized on lha episode toIII position. Tlie gmenuncnl accused the mutineers of being In roltobornllnn wiih the exiled King Conttanttnc: since Ihe Greek Navy has been eenerally royalhl ta lis loyalty, thisretest to abolish lheA plebiscite Is schetlided foruly to approve changes in the Constitution which
^KJJfcT
"ill nuil>'republic fnr lite second lime*imrnkn hnled Ihr naval iiovestaiTit with farmer political Icailer* wlm hudteiuneout affair* in Orri-ce rrcciith/.government hai arrested almnlnvnlulKlnntltd iinmhcr of thmr ipiilllfled to iiriiin.mil ililps ThK purge alwi serveding In iillicn tn oilier anitri who might rnlertain ilmllaf idea*.
V amldluxu Papa<liiponl plebisciteay to pnl himselft ufbollllm* appi-nl for Immiy In llir rr*r|
ibosc
iniarehy today ieryc thr farj rrfml no (real ihoice In theciet of Chief Angelt*
5 There are lo measure pi extent of pupil few regime; opinionv and than the ov ilCRime had r. even In rural area*.
nf antagonism Son sizeable put Inn of Ihc university student body, wilh ilinlmt lomplahiti over arulnnteginnfng lu
lairolitical flavor.
ithin Ihr nglinc llself. Ihr ilrrnglh. nf enrIons factions mid person* Li fir from clear. Some memlH'r* arever the wny Papadoponlosouuirrhy/Stsnie Inueis posit innlanning tn mhiiv whvtis-ety the military ContpoiM-nt of the government later this year, and thW wouldimlier offficer* who were members of ihe nrlglnal coup group (He evidently In'end* In retain nffkiT* win hive ilrong militaryther members nf the regime are Mmsimd lhalarefullyKe will open Ihr dooreturn lo piHfamentary elective govrrnmrnl. which fi'w In the regime wnnt. Still other* believe that ihe plebiscite ennnol bemnnagisl. decpflr Ihcontrol of Ihc admhildratasn. the police ami srctirttyand k* domination of the new* media. They fear that the regime'i claimillmaey could be damagedoo Iraitapairnl rigging of live vole.
II. NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS
he neat lev. week* couldliAHcr.gr tohere I* an out-itkle chanceove against Papadopoolns and Ihe regime by former |unta member Stimi.st*Inpmilas. he vvnnfcl need ihcc-j' figure Mich a* militaryrinef loanntikri tn haer any hope afnotherii lhal amla aaaaa> ben who want loPapaifepouln* from getting more power might decide lo move liefotr he ishosen as Presitlent for elglit yean. Such prisons might *erl way* nfaiirrillng the plelaseitC. Bepme leaders probably wish to avoid ihK fearing It wouUI sunken their claim lo eosenv All ilhing*estimale that Ihe
lii
hlkt- placetdiile. that titer* willai ecrttiln liinount ol' rigging
xtnntinl
Greece will _.
till! Will tWl.
regime leader itw united by th Ir/ tin;'brlli government regimehe monarch with liidk-ati
-nd that
i
Ihrt they tTvtvnlf ibi-lr though Ihr
nbohihmg
d proclaiming Ihe plcltfaeftr thai WHiir fretlng Dp nl thr political proem wai In pruvprct. Ihe evidencethen Imlkiite* llinl move* In tlwnf eletihr polifltsi lively. After fintl Implying thaiikl ftf held. I'unailoimiilm lawucked and now priwnKe* onlylale for election* to Ihe Parliament will br nnnownod during
III. ONCE PAST THE PLEBISCITE
I Pupadopoulew securesajority in ihculy voting,imacynlll bej rintimliencd ,nl lensi there will eontiniie to lie three of opposition force* alwtit wk main concerned:
*<m1
Vflrf*iona7lie nfc-jonla political *lgn. of activity, but collectively arc. riile. thoseeft nrr fairly we. Karnnvanlii and
can rally InIn the regime. Hence Ihey are not likely lo force change on the regime Ui the near term.
II. There IfC fioWhUili/tnip acoltuf iherom uit Inn ilie Creel armed teeeee. There are wwne olTirrrf. mostly under ihe rank of lieutenant oJuiirl, who fret lhat the regime linto curry out Ihe goal* ol theuncorrupt, and ia (miif'kScntly lulfntullst. These officersilgni of lenlotry and hyper-nallonalian. Such elemenlK rtportedly participaled in nborllvr roups0ul we have no indKatJonsoup by such elements ii nowhr works. In general, our informa-llor. on political fnilom wllhln the Creek Army i* ipolty. Tlir rrglmr Itself i* mm re of sucht tale* pains to keep officers who hnld thi-in under viinetllancr and away from sentltlvckons. We think II enpabtc ofove and nculmllzmg ft.
A feBlne-eml unhln Ihehe mart tliety uoy in ir'iie'iurmdrf km fplaccilngelic, anda fae-lionem. actingm with ihe sceeiid rankhave the poimtlnl lo oust Papadopouloi. Thry and their iiibordi-nates control the armed forces in Greece, loannldesey figure, since he controls ihe domett le military intelligence apparatus nnd has the personal loyalty of lomr of Ihe second rank officrrv Moat of the regimei leaders still prefer to have Fapadopeulos in office, if onlyheremonahly ndrollearing the brunt of criticism. Yd all of Ihem know lhal Papadopoulos is personally ji.oitio.ii and would like to rut ionic of them down to size If not remove Ihem from power entirety.
On the whole, however, unlessgrti into grave trouble by cWrly mishandling mahsr issue* nr alicnalei key tnili-
1 i
lary element t, tlie other Junta im-mla-r* wwiklotim. Although lhe
trOllbk-S of (in K 12 lthl
slgulfkiuilly larger.ihnn hi|!nr they haw not reached tritkal Hut ai limedd*ontlmred rulr will im down; grosvu demand fornewrs on hb part. which will mc choice*isstep. AimI iho desire fact' In chargeow; Ilred of ihrio'a could seek hit lo prcsene their own pew
IV. IMPUCAT1 STATES AND DEVELOPMENTS r
ail fciirope and. (ho
l ol 'vlnlci i
junta If personal Crew or more would be below apply;o* at it* cnntinccneic* break with'
Athens. Crccec comklcr* ir.eu itoiiiiHik.illy, and politically, militaryn (particular, arct. dislike cominunkm. lo the West work ofM
action: (he US intd (inin 1'lie USactor In tlie politicaln Greece, since Creek public'm titsltl* tbe US with the power to shapekipmciit* within the reunify. Meal Creeks think Ihalh thon-rghly bdihsd Piipwilopotilos anil his regime, and he cspk'iti (hi* belief tn strengthen his personal position.os. for lit* port. Is committed to cooperation with the US on matters of mutual licnrfit. butot re'rwiTi'ive to lhe US in maltvn which he cornldcri loueh llie durability of his eontrnl. lie. and the regime,en highly resistant over the years lo suggestions Irom any outiklers on such matters Mof elcellvo gosemment.
apadopoulo* has told thr US lltat lie will brook no Interference in Im current plam to reshape lhe Creek Cuscrn'isriH. He would be anrsoyed by any public csiircstlon of US disapproval of htaul hr. probably would not goar as tormodify his political plans or make drastic cttangct In Creek policy toward the US. lUther. Pap*-dopoulos probably woull complain aloud of interference In Creek politics and somewhat reduce cooperation on those bilaleralwhich primarily serve US Interests.
ltnlcver Washington'1 (Wiley on Creek domestic polities in the months alwad, the US hai probably already esprrienced lhe best yean of Its relationship with the Creek junta. In this regime's early jean inthe appearance of US iitpport was more importanl to Papadopoulo* than it is today. The regtme no longer seesompelling need to Accommodate US desires. There will liearising from the proposed usa|orof US military facilities inarrier taskue to be ftorneported near Athens beginning inIs being given loarge pier to berth the ca-rier. This would bring lhe American nasal contingent In that area
IS.m4 to sty that lite second phase uf Ihr luftict-urllitg prngr.un will not go thriiugh tinrxr that (he Creeks utettsnrily svlll wiinl to hull or cut tluwn on other US military focilttk'* or programs under way. Mori trfrc related to (he NATO ullUnc .nut. In oaklltlon. are of benrflt to Greece. Hut ihr regime is likely to Ik* fooler hh details, less willing In agree to tonic pto|cc! mi short imtiiv. itiiI mrei' deposed lob sec thai the facilities are noi utetlay lhe Creeks regard ai .Icr-ogntlngheir novcnrignty.nek (ipjviMtlini fignro left Creeco IllegallyS military invtallaiitinhe gosernmcril war affronted and mc-scd loa measuic of Greek conirol overn a< kilt km. the Jiinln will probably. In certain. ieek domes Ik polllicrilr ihrough crwkbm of lhe US pretence.
impression tltal colonels prev democracy, and words of /ention in withdrew
Ms 11
a conscient
Wastern Europe ondhe Junla'l relationi In ihb theatre ore likely lo be raonr' Ihe US. Many,
blllty of the nmideiiuierolk' character ofwith the pntunble lo the treatyNATO. Iham-Wk' pnlllieal partieslike to makeo-.il hm inare especially strnng InDeranark. and Norway. Hut nogoserttmentajorWashington user Greece, regnnlk-iidiameter ol Athens* regime, and oilCrcece's strategic importance tolhe pe-tcibility that awllbhi NATO might lakereal. Greece could, say, respond Incrltkhm by reusing to pafltcipnlror more NATO commillees. Ilul evenofmade. Greece Is
not likely to diminish It* military cooperation with NATO,omplete Creek wllh-diawal fromj highly unlikely.
In otherol European, or Indeed Atlantic, relatlondiips.actor of limited Importance. Although trade andfinance are major cOtXems lo Creecc,f little creuvqurnce In either regard. Its total trade inmounted lo some S3 billion, less than ono percent of total European Iradr. Its rrserves are slmllaHy small tn tela Hoi. lo all Europe's. Greece simply Isosition lo Influence European financial or Iradr matters Iu any great rstent.
Creecc signed an anoclation agreensent with Ihe Cotnmon Markethich ealh for tfce cstabl^mrnt.eriod of years,ull customs union ond theof Crrrk social ond economicbcic* wrth the Market.f of Greece', internal korul trade Is with the Nine. Over lhe long term, relations between Greece and live European Community will be dilfl-cult, liner acceptoTKe of full Creekscheduled for lheillbe deckled more on politkal than
tarrsngrapid naiiturentGreece
Will t outsklr I i
iuilhu lo play ii mm jfoluMie Outiltnixi'i
lliil In llu* ui In ihey will Ik'
from inhtTt' niedilling In talil inlo
Cyprus
1 .
Illl.llVI. hHped
from breaking fnlo flume. Under the rigidly oinliolUiliiiliiiotttinoltt-iL.iliinol tniikc headlines bydtetomtioos unapailopnulo* Im made it perfectly clear Ihal Creek-Turkish hostilities oscr Cvenn -wild be In the tn-liTCil* of ncftlwr country. Ilolh Athens and Ankaran! recent nmrrtht urgedi'n the slaisd to try IIIUss-ir deep difference* sufficienlly to at lo restore tome normalcyorm yean of tmikm anil ditisioii Some nicnibert of the junta arc more Inclined than Papadopoulosdrattlc initiative* on the CyprusDul theti tenileniiet are hl< lv to be .retrained by the colkgiate character of the junta It would be unlikely, ho-ever. that any Creek government wmdd.be more moderate than Ihe prrsrnljone.i j'
it matt abo be noted that lhetheof any Creekon tht*is closely rrlaledown st'iikoof isecurlly and self -eontbe governmenteakeni-tlm coming nront.it. il might yieldandnackmafatio urge* rmItsue.'[
jrmcy
A Totally New Militarypeculating mi tlie probable polkle* ofunknown groupilary off ken I* irkkim fruitful. In Ibis cwse theuldnsince.otadical new military junta Is probably the onlytonlingentv tthkn umikihup Isreak wiih Crtekfost half-dozen yean, ll I* pntwhleew, more nationalistic Imtlitsliip would diekle llinl Gneevntonn* Ion closely assosialid svith lhe US and while mainlalnliig its NATO ties, would reduce Ihe bilateraloot hip with the US. Hut even In this case, there are distinct llmll* wu how far any inch gosem-menl could goivnuklllc confident in ruling out the- talioter by an ultranalinn-alist. anli-VVestern leader on the Nasser rut-lens. Such an orientation wouldeeplyalue* In Creek sock-sy and hardly tentilile for Cuece't material orcrest.. |
Contingi
A Furthnr
f Papadopoulos uefc replaced or the Junta Itselfrincipal effect would be to call Intomilimaey of ttos-crnmtrrl in Alhenv That is to say.7p which aimed at "purifying" Greeceertain amount of justification, since many in Greece felt that Creek sock'ty couldittleecondmote would lookoe.vr-grab by self-teeking military officers. If one colonel felt called upon to scire power,econd could feel cqaally juillfkd. And if lhe regime in Athens were to change bemieotly through the agency of military force, tho resulting loss ol legitimacy wouldargel against which conventional force* coukl rally. Atuture time, lhe civilian tale of the Creek political scene would heal up fairfy rpiiekfy, throwing open the wliole future of Greek politics.
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ii tigor-coetaorch, for rha Dapo'lmcM ol Slot*
b. Director. De'omo InMtllganca Agency, for lha Ollica ol Iht Sermon/ 3'
. PofenM ond Ibeha Jolnl Chlafi of Slot! t. Aiiiuanl CMof oflor! Intel liar nee, Deporlmnni o< "Ka Army, 'or lha
ol the a>
Deporimonl of Iht Army d. Dirrrtor ol NoyoI liMelUgaico.'hi Din?ortaanl ol th.a. Ault'ont Chiel ol Sufi. Intelligence. USAF. forDaporhrani
ftn
F.* atol Sei-riry Affo>n.ryr(or th* Faderel Ivreow ol
K CXractat ol NSA.eOanol Securitypecial Auluomiha Secretary of the Treowey. lha treoivey
L Daecfor al Central Helen neeCIA. lor any orhar Deportmar* or
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