Created: 9/7/1973

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South Africa

South African Interior Minister Mulder, inoff-the-cuff commentselevised press con* ference onugust in Salisbury, affirmeddirect participation in Rhodesia'sbattle. The South African Government has long avoided publicizing the help it gives the Rhodesian security forces or making anythingan open-ended commitment to such assistance in the future. Mulder's burst of candor, including the admission that South Africa sends police rather than army troops to Rhcdesia in order to minimizecriticism, I

ny change in Pretoria's policy of quiet support for Rhodesia, and no official correction or clarification of his comments ore likely to be issued.




National Intelligence Bulletin 4


Left-wing and moderate elements of the Portuguese Armed Forces Movement are in the midsthowdown that may topple the government of President Costa Gomes.


Armed Forces Superior Council, an advisory group formed in late October to coordinate military activity in the government, has met to demand the dissolution of the Armed Forces Movement Coordinating Committee. Theof President Costa Gomes, Prime Minister Goncalves, and General Otelo da Carvalho, military commander of Lisbon and deputy commander of the Continental Operations Command, ere eald to be precarious* Mo military alert has occurred, but high-level meetings reportedly were In progress during the night at the Institute of Higher Defense Studies.

Someoeft-wing activists, among thosefor publishing the Armed Forceb Movementhave provoked controversy with each issue. The fourth and most recent issueultiple blow at the provisional government and, particularly at the economic minister, precipitating the current showdown.

attack on Portu-

gal 's economic policy was inspiredember of the Communist-dominated Portuguese Democratic Movement who had hoped to receive the economy portfolio in therovisional government. The attack was publicly rebutted by Minister Without Portfolio Melo Antunes and theCommittee.




Attitude* on the Goaernment Side

Most of Rhodesia's whites, including members of the Rhodesian security forces, appear to be solidly behind Prime Minister Xan Smith's policy of seeking an accommodation with the black nationalists

Snith reportedly is reassuring the whites that the civil service--the key, he argues, to carrying out any government'slikely to rests: in the hands of whites well into the future, oalth is saying that since the blacks are not known to have any programs for assuming control of the civil service, the blacks could therefore be limited to the top ministry posts while the middle and lower level white civil servants remain in actual charge.

Despite Smith's reported optimism,lack majurity government takes power in Rhodesia, it is likely to move quickly to gain control over ell aspects of tha bureaucracy. Moreover, there are more educated blacks in Rhodeila capable of asauaing bureaucratic responsibilities than has been the case with other former British colonies at independence.

Now tnat Smith has accepted majority rule within two years, both whites and blacks in the security services reportedly see no reason to continue to fight against guerrillas with whom they may soon be acsoclatedransitional



Tha prospects are good that morale in the security services will drop considerably. The black nationalist leaders, especially tho military field commanders, all agree that. In order to keep up the pressure on lan Smith, tho fighting should goeven beatisfactory transitional government comes into being. The Rhodeslan security services believe there will be an increase in insurgent activity coincident with the Geneva talks.


therelight crease in guerrilla activity in the southeast border area, but it ia too early to determine whether thisew upsurge.

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