Created: 9/1/1974

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for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

n, tbe production of nuclear weapons will be within the technological and economic capabilities of many countries. Tbe once formidable barriers to development of nuclear weapons by aa* lions of middling size and resources have steadily diminished over time. They will continue to shrink In the yean ahead as plutoohim, enriched uranium, and technology become more, widely spread. Some countries will consider nuclear weapons largely Is terms of military utility. The principal determinant of the extent of nuclear weapon*vening years will, however, be politicalthe policies of the superpowers with regard tothe policies of suppliers of nuclear materials and technology, and regional ambitions and tensions.

nuclear weapon to do so covertly, up to the testirst device. AndU. tnot absolutely necessary. In practice. Indications of such aaxe virtually certain to reach the outside world. But mostwill seek to maintain the tightest possible security with regard to any military nuclear activities, and Information is likely to beand inconclusive. Indigenous btHistic missile delivery systems, on the other hand, would be readily identifiable early in thecycle, and missile systems obtained abroad would not remain undetected for any significant period.

backward In the nuclear field and anxious toa token capability quickly are more likely to try to stealfissionable materials, despite the fact that the latter are lessA country capable of developing and producing lb owndevice is highly unlikely to try to steal weapons, but onefissionable materials by theft or diversion. Competently done,might go undetected.

might attempt theft of either weapons orThey could see the latter as useful for terror oreven if they had no Intention of going on to fabricate' weapon*.

Source* ond MetWi Ml

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