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National Intelligence Bulletin 4
Indonesia-Portugal
The Indonesian government is trying to persuade Portugal that Portuguese Timor should be integrated into Indonesia. Lisbon has announcedlebiscite will be held next year on the future status of the colony, but Indonesian officials hope to bringirectof sovereignty.
Jakarta fearslebiscite probably would go against its wishes, resulting either in continuedrule or in independence for the colony. Into believing that Timor should logically be part of Indonesia, the Suharto government fearsmall independent state in the eastern part of the Indonesian archipelago could become an entry point for Chinesesubversion in Indonesia.
According to an Indonesian press report, Indonesia's foreign minister met with his Portuguese counterpart at the UN this week, and the two agreed to consult closely on the Timor issue. One of President Suharto's top aides reportedly plans to go to Lisbon next mc/tth to try to gain President Spinola's acquiescence to Jakarta's wishes.
Portuguese officials have paid little attention to Timor while they have been preoccupied with the status of their African colonies. Lisbon appears likely to insist, at least initially, that the plebiscite be held, but it is possible *Jiat the Portuguese might agreeifferent approach under pressure from rival factions within Portugal or from the Indonesians. President Spinola strongly advocated self-determination for all Portuguese colonies until internal politics forcedsolutions in Portuguese Guinea and Mozambique.
Against the possibility that Portugal will go through with the plebiscite,
Jbut it seems doubtful that this group could win at the polls.. There is no indication that
the Suharto government is actively considering theforce to acquire Timor
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