RELEASE AS SANITIZED 5
Budget Examiner International Affairs Division Office of Management and Budget
Estimates' of Soviet Grain Output
KEMOrI^SSh fob: Emory Donaldson
=to youromparison of the
Em iJS?" CainwlCh harvest estimates made by tha Office of Economic Research at. the opening and closing of the crop year is attached, i
2j Jfci^1Portant to note that the earlythat average" weather conditions wouldthe remainder of the crop year. Becauseraid-summer is critical in determining grainoften at sharp variance with "average" stimates often change markedly. 2 we droppedillion tons fromillion tons of grain due to severe*rarfV Projectionbove the actual harvestmillion tons, and the later estimate waselow
3. It should be noted also that our success inthe size of the Soivet grain crop is dueethodology that has evolved over the past two decades
These data are not necessarily availa&le for otner countries. Application of our methodology to other countries tnerefore would not guarantee similar success.
further information is desired pleaseffice of the Comotroller, on.
Office of Economic Research
Attachment: As stated