INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM: PORTUGAL: A STEP CLOSER TO CIVIL WAR

Created: 8/29/1975

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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THE DIBECTOft Of ClNTRAl INTULIGENCE

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MEMORANDUM TOR: The Honorable Henry A. Kissinger Assistant to the President (National Security Affairs)

Alert Memorandum:

Portugal: top Closer to Civil War

are concerned that Portugaltepcivil war today with the appointments of AdmiralPrime Minister and Vasco Goncalves as Armed ForcesStaff. The anti-Communist faction of Melo Antunesdecide either to try to overthrow this newit previously said itforfeit any chancethe direction in which the country is headed. also will have major implications for the future

of the Azores and Madeira.

Carlucci reported, even beforn thoware announced, that the Melo Antunes groupconcluded that all of the possible solutionslikely tothe appointment ofsucceed Goncalves--were unsatisfactory. pokesmangroup claims it is "almost certain" it will setin the north and '

declare its intent to rid the govornment and the military of all Communists

the dismissal of the Revolutionary Council and the Goncalves government

a military operation toward Lisbon to "push the Communists into the sea.1*

group claims to have the support ofchief of the internal security forces.

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DWKCnOUHD ONLY

These intentions are similarrevious plan the Antunes group intended to implement if itsanifesto was not accepted in four days. An-tunos implicitlyarch on Lisbon on Tuesday when he announced he was going to Coimbra, headquarters of the Central Military Region. This trip never tnrtte-rialized.

In recent weeks it has appeared that thepropensity to procrastinate was endless, but at this juncture the Antunes group will probably have to move or give up any hope of directing Portugal's future. Goncalves' appointment is particularly objectionable to them, since Goncalves would be in an ideal position to purge them. The first step in this process could come next week when the Armed Forces General Assembly meets to discuss the "revampincj of the Rpvolutionary Council."

A military move to topple the regime willmore daring than Antunes and otherofficers have shown so far. They have information that the Communists and their allies0 well-armed supporters, which increases the likelihoodonfrontation turning into civil war.

Although Antunes is thought toajority of the military in his camp, it has never been clear whether this support extended to the use of violence. The performance of the military in previous crises would indicate that many of them could easily be convinced that the Azevedo government should be given time to prove itself. Antunes' strongest support comes from General Charais, commander of the Central Militarywhose troops have been on maneuvers all week and who has made strong statements about not letting Portugal fall under another totalitarian regime. The bulk of the military forces in the northern region are also thought to be pro-Antunes.

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in both the Azores and Madeira toto oust the present government and carry outof the Communists would be overwhelminglyboth among the people and the islands' military.

We believe there is small likelihood that the independence movements in either place would immediately takeof the situation tonilateral declaration of independence if the Antunes group appeared toood chance of success. But if the tide turned against Antunes, or the struggle were protracted, suchcould come swiftly, particularly in the Azores, where plans forontingency are further advanced.

Intelligence Community is keeping theunder close watch; collectors have beenincrease their coverage. This memorandum wasby CIA. In view of the pace at which eventsmoving, we have not attempted to obtain formalwithin the Community.

General, USA Ac ting Director

Original document.

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