USSR: ESTIMATE OF THE 1975 GRAIN CROP (S-09078)

Created: 11/3/1975

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

central Intelligence agency

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3 November5

FOR:

E. Wolfe pfficje of OECD European Community and Atlantic Politjical-Economic Affairs

(EUR/

Depaitmpnt of State

WtiJ KCT

Grain;

of5 Crop

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USSR: Estimate of 5 Grain Crop

Contrary to normal practice, Moscow has not yetyear's grain producti on, even though theended. Preliminary dataew republics,that the crop was even worse than we We nowropillion tometricil'lion. tons below our *

Tho range in the revised forecast reflects uncertainty over the area abandoned or used as foragethought to be more thanercent of the area sownand the yields foregone from this acreage. Grain production in the Volga valley and oast of the Ural mountains was especially affected. For example, recent statements' by the Kazakhstan Minister ot Agriculture put that republic's harvest5 million tons, the worst crop Forage crops in this area were hard hit by the drought, prompting farmers to cut unripened grain to supplement feed supplies and thereby reducing expected grain production.

The Soviets have reentered the US grain market following thectober recession of the moratorium on new sales. By the end of the month Moscow had contracted for anillion tons of US corn, raising estimated

Soviet purchases of all types oi: grain front all sources to2 million tons. More than half this amount is thought to be wheat, with corn predominating among the remainder.

The US is the leading supplier,

If, as expected, total grain purchases by the USSR for delivery during theeptember

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eriod totalillion tons, the US will supply over half. In any case, however, neither Soviet nor US ports can. handle large new shipments at this time. The Soviets,

therefore, may delay additional purchases several months hoping that grain prices decline. Thus, substantial new purchases after year's end are probable.

Moscow can count on imported grain only partially filling the gap between supply and demand. Belteasures have already begun and are impinging largely on livestock, which normally consume half the grain crop. Distress slaughtering of livestock, mainly hogs, began in August and continued through September when record industrial meat production occurred. There has been an above-average slaughter of hogs reducing numbersillion head in the socializedercentear earlier. Moreover, hog numbers are dropping more rapidly than pork production figures indicate; animals are being slaughtered at lower-than-normal weights, thus avoiding the last grain-intensive stages of fattening. In addition, although little

Original document.

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