National Intelligence Bulletin
November5
CHINA ANGOLA
Peking appears to be lowering the visibility ol lu Involvement in Angola. Chines* military adviseri who had been assisting In training unlu of Hc4den Roberto's National Front-tha recipient of most Chinese assistance in the past-departed Zaire last week. Pek'ng reportedly has also placed restrictions on Zalfian army use ol Chinese-supplied artillery to support Front units In Angola.
Th* moves ere probably designed 'o limit strains in China's regional relations end to forestall ootential lnternetic->el enuanessment. Peking's attempt to deliver arms to Jonas Sevimbl's National Union-now cooperating with th* National Front against the Soviet-backedow-up dm summer with Tanzanian Presidentong-time supporter of the Popular Movement. Peking may have read recent African speeches at the UN as signsrowing regional backlash against foreign Involvement of any sort In Angola. The Chinese may also feel that pressure it growing lor an international peace-keeping or fact-finding effort inevelopment that would obviously redound to Peking's disadvantage if it continued highly visibk lormtof military support to its clients.
Peking, on the other hand, is probably not prepared to abandon the Front or the Union totally, especially since they are now making impressive military gains. Chinese tupport for both groups has been important In cementing good relations with Zairlen President Mobutu and Zambian President Kounda-backers of the Front and Union, respectivelv.
Chine, nevertheless, is probably more than willing to allow other external powers, such at South Africa, to beer more of the burden of direct military assistance to the Front and Union. Whatever Chinese military assistance continueswill probably be of the type that can be tunneled through African intermediaries and still leave Pekinglausible case for denying direc* invorvernent in Angola. In this regard. Peking could expand its formal military enittence to Zaire with the understanding that specific categories ota* small arms andearmarked for Angola.
Approved fa*>
Original document.
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