WEEKLY SUMMARY - ANGOLA: ON AND ON

Created: 12/19/1975

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Weekly Summary

ANGOLA: ON AND ON

of ihe contending parties in the civil war scored anv/ major military gains during the past week, although the forces opposing the Soviet-backed Popular Movement lor theof Angola made some progress in the west-central sector. Leaders of the two sides are intensifying their efforts to win political support among African states prior to the planned special summit meeting of the Organization of African Unity. The conference apparently will notbefore next month.

The Military Situation

late lasitrike lorce including elements of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola and the allied National Front for the Liberation of Angola pushed thj Popular Movemenr out of the town ol Cela.r

rhe muscle of

this and other comoinec National Union -National front task groups is provided bynumbers of South African soldiers, white mercenaries, and black Angolans who (ought for the Portuguese against the Popular Movement during the insurgency.

North of Luanda, the military situation has remained essentially static since Popular Move-men! forces, backed by Cuban-manned artillery, advanced two weeks ago to within aboutiles o' Ambrii. the headquarters ol the Zairian-sup-ported National From. Destruction of bridges over several rivers and the start of ihe rainy season have checked the Movement's drive, at least

African Split Widens

African foreign ministers will not meet inAbaba this weekend, as had been announced

i

SUMMARY 5

by OAU officials, toate snd agendaater OAU summit. Governments supporting the Popular Movement's Agosiinho Neto insisted the two meetings be" held back-to-back, but OAU members have not yet agreed on timing. The Popular Movement's friends ate eager for an early summit, believing that, under presentthey can exploit the meeting to the Movement's advantage. At present the diplomatic trend in Africa continues to run in favor of the Movement; with Sudan's formal recognition of Neto's regime this week, the score among African states now isor the Luanda government to none for the nominal joint regime proclaimed by his fiva.'s last month

Countries that want to keep the OAUneutral in the Angolan conflict, on the other hand, are trying to buy time. These countries and the National Union's SavJmbi apparently hope to counter the political damage to the Movement's Angolan adversaries from the highly publicized aid they are getting from South Africa bya backlash against Soviet and Cuban assistance to Neto. Support will be soughtlanket con-demnation of all outside involvement in Angola andease-lire and government of national unity there.

With the OAU meetings in abeyance, Savimbi flew to Uganda this week for talks with OAU chairman Idi Amin. The National Union leader is due in.Dikar on Decembero confer withSengalese President Senghor and reportedly intends on the same trip to visit Cameroon and Ivory Coast. In his talks with the West African leaders, all of whom oppose the Popular Movement's drive for OAU recognition as the sole legitimate Angolan nationalist group, Savimbi presumably will be focusing ontactics for buildii

heir adherence to nent, of course, willll't is worth. This ic fire oy exhibiting, janda, four South ie recent fighting at took the four with

Savimbi and his allies face an uphill struggle in their effort to neutralize the highly emotional South African issue, which mainly motivated Nigeria's and Tanzania's recognition of the Neto regime and is dearly causing other African governments to waver neutrality. Theontinue to exploit the Isi week the Movement stokress conference African soldiers captured Ce'a. Neto'simisit to Nigeria that began in Lagos onhey are certain to attract wide pubiioty there and wherever else he may visit.

Savimbi. while in Kampala, made an attempt to disown Pretoria's assistance by claiming that

Page 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY Dec jg^ 75

any South Africanngola are jheto or. iheir nwn and by calling on African licit) io hc'p drive them out Hi* argument rt not likely lo be tier.uJS've in many Airican capitals

Soviet trim Admin Supporl

The So<*ei centrala..thelime,dmitted That both Moscow and Hj.jnj arc providing military luppOM lo the Popular Movement in Angola.

(arlieronth Pravda. in reportingress conierence held by President Nyerere in 8'usseh. cued iht Tanzanian President's siate-meni mat he was "certain" the USSR was providing the MftA with ihe "necessary arms" for its struggle againsi the "interventionists" from South Alr.ca In an accompanving commentary. PHxStr alia thai :he Soviet Un-on. which'among ;he loyal trends" of (he AlMolin aeople arvC was one Ol ihe firslelcome the Dirih oi an independent regime,ndmg ieip and iuppon 'o Angola duringifncu: days."

Lastmoreover, the Soviet news agenc* :ook the unusual siep o' publicizingleaoerexpression ol gratitude forround help" :oAr.go'anAl ihetime. PravcJ provided Ihearhe Soviet press mar Cuba is lurnishint sussianiial assistance ro the vipia. The Communis: 'anv daiKthat Cuba "alwaysall national liberation movements in Africa, inducing :hesoie legitimateo1 the Angolan people."

ecisionake pub'ic. even in an unoi'ioal way. usngola coincides wiih receni MPlcams in rhe military and diplomatic arena and suggests ihat rne Soviets nwn want to get theirhare o' the credit tor these successes Th* ceosion alsonth rtCtni revelations i- -he US press oiutsstannai t'S-or the MPLVt rivals hence, ihe. iiuusw leef less compelledask ihe ditnonMun* or their own

Sino-Sovict Kivalry

Peking issiill making an efioriapitalize on Moscow's heavy-handed support lor ihe Popular Movement. Publicly, theosition or strict ncur-a

As long as Olher countries maintain Ihtir Current levels of assistance io the Naiional Front and ihe National Union. Ch.na can beioow pro'ile with its former clients, encorse ihe Organization oi African Unity's call for neutrality toward Angola, and score P'osa?anca points al Moscow's expense. Peking is clearly concerned, however, thai ii may noi be abie io sustain this approach.

Anv significant reductionupport 'or ihe Nai.ona Front and National v'nion by other countries, far tiample. wouid or<ifficult deos>on$.'

The piospecteversal oi theof African Unity's position or Angola or an agreement among in membe'1o their separate wavs on the recog-tirionwould be eouatlv unsetilmghe Chinese This would jlmosi certimlv lead io muchvr-can and Third Uo'klo-ooularjro leave Pek.ne.e of the fence

Original document.

---

---