Weekly Review
ANGOLA-AFTER INDEPENDENCE
country's first days of independence have been marked by more fighting between forces of the two rival "regimes" that are vying for recognition as the legitimate government. With the continuing efforts of the Africans' regional organization toruce apparently getting nowhere, the outlook is stillrotracted military struggle in which the foreign supportlo the two sides may be decisive.
On the Scene
Forces of the National Front that have been moving toward Luanda from the south apparently reached Dondo this week, putting them close to the hydroelectric plant that supplies power to Luanda. North of the capital, the Front may be about to abandon itsfor nearly abreak through the Popular Movement's defenses around Quifangando. Instead, the Front may try to move on the capital from the east.
Cabinda, where the Popufar Movement is strongly entrenched, its forces apparently succeeded late last week in beating off ananerr.pt from Zaireibindan separatist
Onhe National Unionthat Its forces, which are operating with elements of the National Front, had taken Malan-|e, one of the Popular Movement's few remaining strongholds in central Angola. Its fallide gap between the Movement's forces in Luanda and important units operating from Henrique deCarvatho.
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On the political level, the Luanda-based Popular Movement regime headed by Agostinho Neto late last week installedman cabinet in which Neto's lieutenant. Lopo de Naicimento, holds the post ot prime minuter. He was the? Movement's principal representative in the tour-party transitional government that collapsed uhi summer Both the political and military wings ot lhe Popular Movement are represented In the cabinet. Ihe rival Nationalational Unionas hai irnnhle net-tine; off the ground.]
announced, but it now appears that neither National Front leader Holden Roberto nor the National Union's lonis Savimbi wilt take top positions. Each is hesitani to become loo closely linked with the joint government, which they both regardarriage of convenience toocus for anti-Soviet foreign support.
Foreign Reaction
Partly because ol the existence of theregimes, mostthe bulk otmember states ot the Organization of Africanwithholding recognition from either Angola claimant. Someovernments,the USSR, Cuba, ten other Communist countries, and ten African states, have recognized Neto's government, however, while no state has formally accepted the National FrontNational Union regime. This week, Neto's peoplesought admission to the current meeting in London of the International Coffee Council.
The Organization of African Unity is Stillto resolve the Angolan situationovernment of nationafunrty, but us e'lorts have been impaired by the failure of the ten Africanradicalhave recognized Neto to abide by the OAU's request to remain neutral. Other OAU members wantvoid any further division over the Angola issue. Al present, OAU Chairman Amin's proposal for sending an African peacekeeping force ro Angola and calls by Somaliaummit meeting and by Ethiopiaoreign ministers' conference show little sign ot getting off the ground.
The Soviet Role
At present, thereJsnofirm evidence that Moscow is planningflights tc Angola soon. The Soviets will be watching the military situation closely, however, and may well provide further support to the Popularif Irs fortunes continue to decline.
The USSR hat hadrice in black Africa for its Krone; military and diplomaticof Neio'i regime. although Soviet leaders presumably hadrior determination that the proipect of gaining significant influence in southern Africa was worth theumber of African itaies have been particularly upset by the Kremlin's flouting of the OALt's call for neutrality in the Angolan dispute.
The Cubans have almost certainly become more directly involved in the Angolan fighting since the tide of battle turned against the Popular Movement last month. They probably played an important role, for example. In the Movement's successful defense, so far. of its position inoscow has provided New with fighterthey most likely would be flown by Cuban pilots.
Peking Finesses
The Chinese, who have long viewed the Angolan strife in the broader context of Sino-Sovict rivalry, have taken ill-concealed delight in the African backlash to Moscow's heavy-handed involvement with the Popular Movement. Peking's media have been saturated with replays of anti-Soviet articles and statements from numerous African capitals, and Chinese propagandists haveumber of articles cleaiiy aimed at fanning African emotions.
Cuban Involvement
Concurrent with the Soviet supply airlifts, Havana, probablyudge from Moscow, has stepped up its airlift of troops to support the Popular Movement's military operations. Cubans have advised and trained Neto's forces for years, both in Cuba and in Africa. The number of Castro's people! nvoived in the situation has risen sharply in recent months, particularly since the end of September when the atrlift apparently began.
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