REVIEW OF USSR NATIONAL INCOME STATISTICS (ER M 76-1035)

Created: 5/28/1976

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM

RELEASE AS SANITIZED y.

MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Francis J. Holcva

Department of State

Review of USSR National Income

Statistics

Your Memorandum of

Same Subject, to CIA Headquarters

1. The data contained in the referencedreviewed byoffice. These data

represent an attempt to recast Soviet national income (net material product) into the Western concept of net natiional product (national income in the document). The ne&hodology used is essentially correct, but without additional details about the sources of some of the data we. cannot be sure that nothing was omitted or erroneously intcluded.

Mostthe data are from the Soviet annual statistical handbook, Narodnoye khozyaystvo9Shmxce fl in your memorandum). The net material product va&uc is correctly cited. f non-material product arc the product of Soviet employment and wage data, fear the relevant sectors published onf tire same source. Items the sum of profits in the communal economy and other .branches of the economy as published on. Itemocial insuranceis equalt of the sum of itemsTrsas percentage is identicaloviet published rate for state institutions (Spravochnik pnrtiynogo fabotnika, p- which was used by the Office of Economic Research for the same branches in its estimate0 Soviet gross national product.

The remaining data,0 of non-material product and the entire value of services consumed in material production, are not available in open Soviet literature and arc of the highest interest to us. f non-material product, the value added in transportation

and communication serving households seems too low. Estimates iron official Soviet data and from Soviet journal articles and booksigher. It may be that the value added in transportation and communications serving the non-material product branches was not included as it should be. We cannot declare that the value published in this document is wrong, and we would be very interested in its derivation.

value of wages and salaries ofeems quite reasonable. Theis that the value3 is the same as insmaller Thisecrease inrwnpoww, hence we would be very interested in.

the derivation of ths number. This number may have been calculatedixed percentage of the announced defense budget which was constant3 and declined

The subtraction of the value of services consumed in material production reveals considerable methodological sophistication. Soviet data in this area are extremely scarce and we cannot evaluate them. hole, they appear to be of the right order of nagnitude.

Since the Office of Economic Research is responsible for estimating Soviet GNP, it is important for us toany Soviet data which may aid us in this task. The data in your memorandum fall precisely into that category, including some data which appear to be original and very important if we can document them. Therefore, we would

be moist appreciative of any information you could provide us about their source. In particular, wore they provided by members of the Soviet UN delegation? Can any more details be obtained (detailed sources, method of computation, etc-J? Can the same data for other years be obtained? The document appears to fee partarger publication; can you provide usopy of the entire document or its title and source?

hope these comments are helpful to you. if you wish any additional details*

iitiice of Economic Research

Attachment:

Memo ofay 76

2

OEF'A RlMENT OK STATE

Hay6

headquarters

FROM : Francis J. Holeva

IO/UN/COR,) Department of State

SUBJECT: USSR National Income Statistics

Per our phone conversation ofay, please find attached the national income figures of the USSR forwarded to us by David L. Stofctlomyer oC. Mission to the United nations in New York.

Please review the statistics and provide your comments. Some thcxights co-old be along the line of:

Their validity.

Are they too low or too high.

Are they in keeping with your current information on the subject.

Your cooperation in this matter will be deeplyould like to return the comments to Mr. Stottlemyer byay.

ussn

_averaRc

roubles. dollur)

National income. dollars)

'i.Ij,

Mid-year population (millions)

*er capita income. dollars)

1/ Source: For derivation see the followingBulletin ofr,. Annual average of

USSR (continuous

Derivation of national income

(million roubles)

material product2/

Son-materialf which:

Wages end ^iages and Vages.and Images and

Wages and salaries In housing I'oges and salaries in health salaries

in education salaries in science salaries in finance" .

in government

Social inaiorance contributions

la above- branches Velne addiefl in passenger

.

transparrttation and cocmrunicatlon serving, ftouseholds, excluding social insurance contribution Social insurance contributions in pessengear transportation and cormuniCTtion serving households Wages and salaries of military

personnel Profit in non-material sphere

622

4 '

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"

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the USSR,

USSB (continued)

Derivation of national income (continued)

(million roubles)

Value of services consumed in material production and seme other components of vhlch:

on cultural

facilities inIncluded

on cultural

facilities in material sphere financed out of profit

Purchase of services by

material sphere (scientific services, financial services. Insurance services, etc.)

*_ Travel expenditure In material sphere

National Inccme

170

791

9,oVf

182

827

Original document.

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