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ANM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO CINCPAC IMMEDIATE INFO SECSTATE3
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CINCPAC FOR POl-AD POLAD PLEASE PASS AMBASSADOR NEWSOM
AGS: PFOR MASS ID
SUBJECT: SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS AND COMMENTS RE INDONESIA SINCE DECEMBER5
REF4
AVARNING NOTICE-SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED-NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS-NOT RELEASABLF TO CONTR ACTORS OR CONTRACTORj'CONSULTANTS-DISSEMINATION AND EXTRACTION OF INFORMATION CONTROLLED BY ORIGINATOR
UNITED STATES-IN DON ESI AN RELATIONS
THE INDONESIAN REACTION TO PRESIDENT FORD'S VISIT HAS BEEN FAVORABLE ALTHOUGH REGARDING THE VISIT ASOURTESY. THE GOI BELIEVES IT SERVED TOTHE US COMMITMENT TORESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND TO DEMONSTRATE THE CLOSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEENND INDONESIA PRESIDENT SUHARTO AND HANKAM IIAVE PRIVATELY ENDORSED THE NEW PACIFIC DOCTRINE AS BENEFICIAL TO INDONESIAARNING TO THE USSR AND SECRET
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THE PRC NOT TO TRY TO DOMINATE THE PACIFIC AREA THE PRESIDENT IS REPORTED TO BE DISPLEASED WTTH THE INDONESIAN VOTENTERESTS IN THE UNITED NATIONS VOTE ON THE US MILITARY PRESENCE IN GUAM. WHICH WAS APPARENTLY REGARDEDOUTINE MATTER BY THEELEGATIONS AND NOT REFERRED TO JAKARTAECISION
2 INDONESIAN-SINGAPOREAN RELATIONS
FOLLOWING THE SINGAPOREAN ABSTENTION IN THE UN
SINGAPORE AND ITS I'SUED NATIONS DELEGATION INTIAI.LY. INDONESIA PLANNED. UNDER ORDERS FROMERIES OF HARSH MEASURES IN RETALIATION AGAINST SINGAPORE. SINCE THEN. MORE MODERATE ADVICE HAS PREVAILED PARTICULARLY FOR THE SAKE OF PRESERVING ASEANRIVATE DEMARCHE WILL BE MADE TO SINGAPORE. RELATIONS WITH SINGAPOREAN OFFICIALS WILL BE COOL BUT CORRECT. AND INDONESIA WILL TRY TO DETERMINE THE REASON FOR SINGAPORE'S ACTION AND TRY TO AVOID SIMILAR PROBLEMS IN THE FUTURE
2 INDONESIAN-MALAYSIAN RELATIONS.
ALTHOUGH INDONESIAN-MALAYSIAN RELATIONS REMAIN CLOSE AND GENERALLY HARMONIOUS, THE GOI IS DISTURBED BY THE LIKELIHOODHANGE OF GOVERNMENT IN KUALAI GOI ANTICIPATES THAI PRIME MINISTER RA/AK'S DEATH MAY PAVE THE WAY FOR AN ASSUMPTION OF AUTHORITY BYSLAMIC. YOUNGER AND LESS PRAGMATIC LEADERS THIS WOULD DISRUPT THE HERETOFORE EXCELLENT REl-ATIONS WHICH GOIVE ENJOYED WITH THE OLDER GENERATION OF MALAYSIAN LEADERS AND IS SECRET
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MALAYSIAN-INDONESIAN RELATIONS
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ORTEND SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN INDONESIAN-MALAYSIAN RELATIONS IF ANYTHING. IT SEEMS TO BE BRINGING ABOUT AN ATTEMPT TO SMOOTH OVER DIFFERENCES THE GOI HAD TAKEN STEPS TO ATTEMPT TO SHORE UP RA/AK'S POLITICAL SUPPORT IN MALAYSIAN BY URGING MALAYSIAN CABINET MEMBERS AND THE MALAYSIAN CHINESE COMMUNITY TOZAK. ESPECIALLY IN HIS DISPUTE WITH THE CHIEF MINISTER OF SELANGOR DATO HARUN.
SEAN SUMMIT MEETING
PROGRESS TOWARD AN ASEAN SUMMIT MEETING CONTINUES FITFULLY WITH CURRENT PLANS STILL CALLINGEETING IN BALI IN LATE FEBRUARY IN THE VARIOUS SENIOR OFFICIALS MEETINGS HELD THUS FAR. THE BASIC PROBLEMS HAMPERING ASEAN HAVE NOT BEEN RESOLVED. THE TWO MOST SERIOUS DISAGREEMENTS ARE OVER AN ASEAN APPROACH TO INDOCHINA AND AND ASEAN FREE TRADE ZONE INDONESIA. SUPPORTED GENERALLY BY THE PHILIPPINES AND SINGAPORE.ORRECT BUT FIRM ATTITUDE TOWARD INDOCHINA. WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY REGARDING VIETNAMOTENTIAL ENEMY AND PREPARING FOR THE WORST MAI-AYS IAN ANDNDORE CONCILIATORY ATTITUDE WITH MALAYSIAN EVEN SUGGESTING INCLUSION OF THE INDOCHINESE STATES IN ASEAN. REGARDING FREE TRADE. INDONESIA IS THE CONSPICUOUS HOLDOUT ON AN AGREEMENTREE TRADE AREA INDONESIA WANTS ONLY THE LIFTING OF TARIFFS ON SPECIFIC ITEMS. PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT BELIEVES IT IS NOT ABLE TO COMPETE IN TRADE ON AN EQUAL FOOTING WITH THE OTHER MEMBERS THEOF THE THAI GOVERNMENT AND PRIME MINISTER RAZAK'S DEATH HAVE ADDED OTHER FACTORS INUMMIT MEETING. AND THERE IS SOME SPECULATION. PARTICULARLY IN THE PHILIPPINES. THAT PRESIDENT SUHARTO'S HEALTH MAY PREVENT HIS ATTENDANCE.
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ACTION EA-09
INFO OCT-OIB-O?SAE-00
CCT-Ol SAM-OI
M AM EMBASSY JAKARTA TO CINCPAC IMMEDIATE INFO SECSTATE4
SECRET5
CINCPAC FOR POLAD POLAD PLEASE PASS AMBASSADOR NEWSOM
5 POSSIBLEVISIT BY JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER
THE GO! HAS REACTED FAVORABLYOJ INQUIRY AS TO WHETHER INDONESIA WOULD RECEIVE PRIME MINISTER MIKI TAKEO, WlISHES TO VISIT THE ASEAN COUNTRIES. PRIMARILY TO ESTABLISH GOODWILL PRESIDENT SUHARTO HAS APPROVED THE VISIT. WHICII THE GOl WANTS IN THE SUMMER6 BETWEEN THE ASEAN SUMMIT MEETING AND AN EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF THE INDONESIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN THE FALLHE GOI WOULD LIKE MIKI TO BE PRESENT FOR THE FORMAL INAUGURATION OFTHE ASAHAN PROJECT. EXPECTED Tl IIS SUMMER. ISSUES WHICH THE GOI MAY RAISE WITH MIKI INCLUDE Tl IE LOMBOK CTS FACILITY. THE SECURITY THREAT FROMEQUEST FOR JAPAN TO COORDINATE ITS INDOCHINESE AID PROGRAM WITH INDONESIA. AND JAPANESE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE TO INDONESIA NO CIVIL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED IF MIKI VISITS INDONESIA
6 PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION (PLO)
IS INEVITABLE BAKIN AND HANK AM OPPOSE THIS MOVE. AS IT WOULDERIOUS SECURITY THREAT. FOR EXAMPLE. BY SECRET
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INCREASING THE CHANCES OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN INDONESIA DFPLU ARGUES THE MOVE SHOULD BE TAKEN IN ORDER TO SHORE UP INDONESIA'S THIRD-WORLD IMAGE. ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF INDONESIAN ACTIONS IN PORTUGUESE TIMOR PLO REPRESENTATIVES WERE INVITED TO AND ARE ATTENDING THE CURRENT UNCTAD MEETING IN JAKARTA DESPITEBJECTION.
THE GOI HOPES TO EXPLOIT THE CURRENT INDONESIA-MIDDLE EAST SEMINAR IN JAKARTA SPONSORED BY THE HARAPAN KITA FOUNDATION TO PERSUADE THE ARAB COUNTRIES TO INVEST IN INDONESIA HOWEVER, LEADERS OF THE ARAB DELEGATIONS. NOTABLY ALGERIA. LIBYA, KUWAIT. AND SYRIA. INTEND TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT ANT ARAB FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR INDONESIA DEPENDS UPON THE EXTENT OF THEOTTTS SUPPORT FOR THE PALESTTNAN CAUSE WORLDWIDE
7 PORTUGUESE TIMOR
MILITARY THE NEXT POINTS OF ATTACK ARE APPARENTLY BOBONARO IHE CENTERIRCLE WHICH IN INDONESIANS ARE TRYING TO CLOSE AROUND FRETILIN FORCES IN THE WESTERN PART OF PORTUGUESE TIMOR. AND SU Al AND VIQUEQUE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF IHE ISLAND HEAVY RAINS ARE SI OWING THE INDONESIAN ADVANCE AS ARE FRETILIN GLERRILA TACTICS SUITABLE FOR THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN THE COUNTRYSIDE INDONESIAN CASUALTIES HAVE BEEN UNEXPECTEDLY HIGH AMOUNTING TO SEVERAL HUNDRED KILLED AND MANY OTHERS WOUNDED THIS HAS ADVERSELY AFFECTED THE MORALE OF THE INDONESIANACK OF DISCIPLINE, LOOTING. AND RAPE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AMONG SOME INDONESIAN UNITS. PARTICULARLY IN DILI THESE UNITS ARE TO BE REMOVED AND CERTAIN INDIVIDUALS DISCIPLINED GENERAL MURDANI REMAINS IN COMMAND OE THE FORWARD COMMAND POST. ALTHOIXiH HE MAY BE REPLACED BYPUI ISA OF KOSTRAD THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF EXTERNAL SUPPORT FOR FRETILIN
IC AL INDONESIAN EFFORTS TOIVIL ADMINISTRATION AND REVIVE THE ECONOMY OF EAST TIMOR ARE PROGRESSING SLOWLY. LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE INEPTITUDE OF LOCAL TIMORESE LEADERS AND THE RELUCTANCE OF LOCAL BUSINESSMEN TO REOPEN THEIR SHOPS NEVERTHELESS. IT IS CLEAR THE GOI INTENDS TO DEVOTE WHATEVERND MONEY IS NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THESEEFERENDUM OR OTHER FORM OF SELF-DETERMJNATION IS STILL PLANNED. SECRET
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PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MARCH OR APRIL THE GOI HAS INITIATED AN INDOCTRINATION PROGRAM AMONG THE TIMORESE TO PERSUADE THEM OFTHE DESIRABILITY OF UNION WITH INDONESIA
WARNING NOTICE-SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOLVED-NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONS-NOT RELEASABLE TO CONTRA ('TORS OR CONTRACTOR/CONSULATANTS--DISSEMINATION AND EXTRACTION OF INFORMATION CONTROLLED BY ORIGINATOR RIVES
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