SINO-SOVIET ACTIVITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC

Created: 7/1/1976

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ANALYTICAL MEMORANDUM

Sino-Soviet Activities in the Southwest Pacific

JUL SO

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c N2 61

This Memorandum is Issued by the Director of Central Intelligence.

The National Foreign Intelligence Board Concurs, Except as Noted in the Text, as Follows:

Tha foliating intelligence crgartizaticns partioipatad in tha preparation of that moworwidm;

The Omul Intelligence Agency, tha intelligence organiiatlons of tha Departments of Stata and Defense, and cha National Security Agency.

CONCUBR1NC:

The Deputy to the Director of Central Intelligence for theVice Chairman

Tho Deputy Dlractor of Central Intelligence representing the Central Intelligence Agency

Tha Director of Intelligence and Raacarch representing theof Stata

Tha Dlractor, Defense Intelligence Agency

The Director, National Security Agency

The Deputy Assistant Administrator for Kational Security, Energy Research and Development Administration

ABSTAINIMC;

Tha Special Assistant to the Secretary for National Security, Depart-

DMuit of tha Treasury -Tha Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation

ALSO PARTICIPATING:

The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army

Tht Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of tha Navy

Tho Aseistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence. Department of the Air Force

"sb6rex

6

SOBJECTs : Sino-Soviet Activities in

the Southwest Pacific

SCOPE NOTE

This memorandum deals only with the small islands of the Southwest Pacific and the waters surrounding them. (See Map)

KEY JUDGMENTS

He do not think that recently-noted Chinese and Soviet activities in the small island states of the Southwest Pacificortent of aincreased presence there. Nevertheless the interest in the area of both countries can beto continue as additional island dependencies achieve nationhood over the next several years.

Recently increased activity is small scale and consistent with the desire of both countries totheir world-wide presence and influence by traditional means of diplomatic relations, trade,

- and aid.

USSRtrong interest in expandingoperations wherever it can. We believe this

wouldajor motivating factor of any further increase in Soviet activity in the area.

The USSR has notaval interest in the area. To be sure, thereong-range Soviet interest in US lines of comnunication with itsincluding Australia and Hew Zealand. But we do not anticipate that this interest will lead the USSR to increase its naval presence in the Southwest Pacific in the near future.

In this area, as in others, Moscow-Peking rivalry is an element in stimulating the interest cf both. Peking's concerns are particularly heightened by its broader anxieties over growing Soviet naval strength in the Pacific Peking's rivalry with Taiwan also stimulates its interest in diplomatic relations.

The small island states have been extremely cautious in their dealings with Moscow and Peking and are likely to remain so.

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DISCUSSION

Three recent events in the Southwest Pacificthe establishment by the PRC of the first resident Communist embassy in the island states, aSoviet aid offer to Tonga, and the appearance of two Chinese oceanographic vessels near Fijihave raised questions concerning the nature and extent of Soviet and Chinese interest in the area.

This interest has developed slowly andlimited. Although two of the five island states became independent in Western Samoa2 and Nauruhe Soviets did not become active in the area In that year, theyto engage in fisheries research in Southwestwaters. They also showed some interest inrelations with Fiji which, like Tonga, had become independent The PRC was slower in showing an interest and, until recently, has been less active even than the USSR. The interest of bothin the area can be expected to continue asisland dependencies achieve nationhood over the next several years.

The USSR

In the last two years, the Soviet Union has established diplomatic relations with Fiji, Papua New Guinea (which became independent, Tonga, and Western Samoa. There is no resident Soviet mission in any of the island countries. Moscow has expressed no interest in having one anywhere except in Papua New Guinea, the largest of the island states and the only one with rich mineral resources and significant economic development potential. (See Table, "Status of Independent South Pacific Island Nations Relations with USSR, PRC, and Taiwan.")

Soviet fisheries research in the area was followed2 by commercial fishing. Both fishing and shipping activity remains very limited. Soviet merchant ships madeisits to island country ports

ndS. 4 of thaalls were too.Papua New Guineaach to New Caledonia and Truk. oviet vessels called at Papua New Guinea,t Fiji.

Russians have good reason for interestfisheries operations. Fish already provides

sone is percent of all protein in the Soviet diet. The government's targeted increase to IB percent0 has assuaed greater importance as fluctuating grain harvests in the USSR have hindered Soviet efforts to produce more meat. Pressure on traditional fishing grounds in the northern oceans is severe, however, and the proposed introduction ofile economic zone threatens Soviet ability to fish in some rich areas. Although the Southwest Pacific does not rank among the world's rich fishing areas, it has been relatively unexploitcd. Accordingly, as the opportunity presents itself, the USSR, as it has elsewhere in the Pacific, may attenpt to form Joint venture agencies to service its vessels or to engage in ocean fishing. It may also seek access to bunkering facilities.

efforts to obtain such facilitiesZealand and Indonesia, off whose coasts it fishing floetSj hm been unsuccessful) it may

be looking for better prospects among the small island states. The mid-April offer to Tonga reportedlythe exchange of Soviet assistance for, among other things, facilities for Soviet fishing vessels and participationish processing venture. there is no current Soviet fishing activity in the Tongan area.

fishing concerns may be importantSoviet interest in the area, it isthat the Soviet aid offer to Tonga wasthan tho standard pitch the Soviets use whento establish diplomatic relations with anycountry. The Sovietsimilar tackto establish diplomatic relations withNew Guinea, and Western Samoa. Moscow hasrelations with Fiji since

but no aid agreements have been concluded.

USSR has notaval interestarea. Soviet combatants (surface ships and) do not operate there.sovietships (AGls) operate consistently offoccasionally in the vicinity of the Marshallto the north. Soviet AGls also monitortests. Soviet hydrographic ships rarelyin the area; when they do, it is normallycalls (Fiji) while transiting the area. Thebe sure,ong-range interest in US lineswith its allies, including AustraliaZealand. But we do not anticipate that thiswill lead it to increase its naval presence

in the Southwest Pacific in the immediate future.

reacting to the incorporation of the USSR has expressed suspicionsUS intends eventually to use these islandspurposes. These statements seemto take advantage of Trusteeship Councilto attack American "colonialism." also reflect longer-term suspicions of US.

Tht! PRC

presence of local Chineseoriented toward Taiwan, and trade tieslatter have tended to slow the developmentislands' relations with China somewhat. Thisto be particularly the case with Papua Nevertheless, it is moving steadilywith Peking (to which it sella copper Two states have opted for Taiwanand During the last yearand Fiji have established relations withPRC mission in FijiPeking's majoramong the island statesis the onlyCommunist diplomatic mission in the areaare reports that Peking will soon open anin Western Samoa. Fiji intends to maintainwith Taiwan despite its new PRC ties.

In April and May, two PRC oceanographic vcssols made an unprecedented cruise to the South-wast Pacific, near Fiji. In-addition to theirsurveys, they were also conductingcoenrunieations testa. The PRC may also have bean scouting future long-range missile-impact sites. There is no record of PRC calls to ports in the area4

The PRC is deeply concerned about Soviet naval power in the Pacific, an area in which thebelieve the Soviets are attempting to expand their sphere of influence and, in conjunction with their Indian Ocean activity, establish themselvesosition where they can cut hostile lines of ccomu-nication. In the Southwest Pacific the PRC favors closer relations between the ASEAN group and the small island states, which Peking hopes will also maintain their close ties with Australia and New Zealand.

The Perspectives qf- the Kew States

the island territories achieve they are looking for help to shore uptheir marginal economics and, be interested in anything the Soviets andhave to offer. Some of them, in addition,begun to use the possibility ofinterest as leverage to win more aidNew Zealand, and Great Britain. Theykeenly aware, however, of their own smallinexperience and are generally cautious into overtures from the two Communist powers.

STATUS OF INDEPENDENT SOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND NATIONS RELATIONS WITH USSR, PRC, AND TAIWAN

Pacific Island Nation

Fiji

stern Samoa

Papua Maw Guinea

USSR

Diplomatic relationsAmbassador to Australia accredited to Suva.

Diplomatic relations

Diplomatic relationsAmbassador will be non-resident.

prc

; Residentestablished inhe only resident communist mission in South Pacific Islands area.

; Residentpossible.

Diplomatic relations expected shortly; Port Mo roeby wishes non-resident

Taiwan

Broke consularwith Taiwan when diplomatic relations with PRC established, but trade relations continue throughs "East- Asia Trading Center* in Suva.

Trade, relations expected to continue afterrelations arebetween PNG snd PRC.

Nauru

relations; Soviet Ambassador to New Zealand accredited to Tonga.

Diplomaticpened mission ln5 with resident Charge.

Diplomaticpened Consulate in Taipal

DISSEMINATION NOTICE

hb cccumnmdliteirirwled by tho Central !ntelfigenco Agency. Thb copy Ii far rhe information ond BM ot iho recipient and o* pertoni under hb Jorhdfctiofleed-to-knowddMiooal euontkri dbjomlnotloe moy be avhortiedollow-ng offtoob within their reapeafee oeparTmerin.

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Original document.

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