K,** CIA HISTORICAL REWFW PJMWRftM RELEASE AS8
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SOVIETASTERN EUROPE
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washingtonby theastern Europe Division. Office of Currentwith occasional contributions Irom other offices within the Directorate of Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the Individual articles.
CONTENTS October
USSR: The Status of
USSR and Sao Tome Sign
Declaration of
KGB Disapproves Finns'
Trip to Norilsk
USSR: Attempting To Overcome
Puel
Soviet Commercial Visitors
During September 6
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The Status of Yakubovskv
The most recent report on the status of Marshal I. akubovsky says he is suffering from cancer and hospitalized in Moscow in serious condition. to tnis report, General of the Army H. V,eputy minister of defense, is slated to succeed Yakubovsky in the near future as commander In chief of the Warsaw Pact armed forces.
The source of this report, the *
in Hoscow, has provided accurate information in the past--for example, he predicted that Ustinov would succeed Grechko as minister of defense. His accounting of truth not found in the various explanations from Soviet sources forbsence from the public scene since early July. The latter hava provided misloauingstatements that Yakubovsky has beensince lasthave played down theof his illness by describing it as nothing morebad cold."
The report that Ogarkov will replace Vakubovsky as tho Warsaw Pact commander in chief is plausible. He hascomer" in the Soviethent. General commanding the Volga Military District he was elected tomembership on the CPSU Central Committee atd Party Congress. He moved up to thepost at the General Staff of the Soviet armed forces inerved as the ranking militaryon the Soviet delegation during the early phases of the SALT I negotiations, and gained full (voting) membership on the Central Committee ath Party Congress
Ogaikov haseputy minister of defense with an unidentified portfolio sincend was the ranking professional military officer toMarsha] Ustinov when the Soviet minister of defense visited Poland during the Warsawn mid-September of this year. He
October U,
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may have been at the exercise for some reasonwith his dutieseputy minister ofin Moscow, but it is equally possible that he was there to observe the performance of forces soon to come under his command.
The appointment of Ogarkov to the top Warsaw Pact post would be in keeping with the tradition ofoviet officer hold that position, but it wouldreak with the past in at least one Yakubovsky and the previousthe late Marshals Konev andmade their marks as troop commanders during and after World War II. ilitary engineer by training, has made his marktaff officer and has had relatively little experienceroop commander.
It is possible, however, that the Sovietand their East European allies think that the time has comean like Ogarkov to move into the top Warsaw Pact post. Ogarkov might be viewed as an ideal choice for the jobime when the Warsaw Pact forces will be learning to use computers and other such equipment in the field. He may also be looked upon as an officer who will be able to get along with the East European military leaders better than Konev, Grechko, and Yakubovsky have in the past. (jyill'lUEliJllAL"
USSR and Sao Tome Sign Declaration of Principles
The USSR and the Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principeeclaration of "principles of friendly mutual relations and cooperation" on This ts Moscow's first formal agreement with the small and impoverishedformer Portuguese colony located in the Gulf of Guinea.
The declaration was announced following Prime Minister Trovoada's visit last week to the Sovietfirst such visitao Tomean official since the country gained independence inS. The agreement includes standard references to the strengthening of relations and commits tho sides to expanded contactsariety of fields, but no specific aid Agreements were announced.
The Sao Tomean government, despite its rhetoric, has sought to project the imageonaligned state that is preoccupied with economic development and prepared to work on a non-ideological basis with all potential aid donors. The USSR has moved more slowly than other Communist states in dcvoloping ties with Sao Tome; only last May did it accredit itsin Congo to Sao Tome. Moscow probably views Sao Tome as another potential ally in the African line-up of "anti-imperialist" states because of the country's commitment to socialist development at home and its espousalairly militant third world stance abroad. There is, however, no apparent economic or military roaaon for the Soviets Co become heavily involved. (MMNMiUh
October
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KGB Disapproves Finns' Trip to Norilsk Combine
The bureaucratic complexities and roadblocks for Soviet organizations that have business dealings with foreigners are illustratedecent case involving the Norilsk Mining and Metallurgical Combine. In early October the combine was informed that the KGB had refused permission for Finns to travel to the combine to service some Finnish equipment installed there. The Ministry of Defense, which was alsohad given its authorization.
Onupply officials at the Ministry of Non-Ferrous Metallurgy in Moscow and at thediscussed the need totory, which all should follow, to explain to the Finns theof their trip. There was no inclination in the ministry to pursue the question further with the KGB. The ministry's protocol department took the attitude that "you yourselves are atf you go ahead and buy equipment which you are incapable of operating without their help, and they arc not permitted to come."
The supply official in Moscow said that noaccompanied the KGB's refusal. Although he thought the decision wase said that "they know what, they are doing." Furthermore, "you aren't supposed to get into discussion with these people. In the first place, they will not enter into any discussion. Not only that, they might 'put you away'.
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USSR: Attempting TO Overcome Fuel Short.agrs
The Ministry of Power and Electrification has warned that there willhortage of electric power in the fall and winter. Above-planof coal and fuel oil--the result of cold spells last winter and depicted stockpiles of fuel at thermal power plants,roblem in buildingeserve of fuel for this fall and winter season.
In an unusual announcement, the Sovietof Railroads has admitted that from6 the railroads fell short of plannedof coal to electric power stationsillion tons. The railroads will attempt to make up the shortage during September-December, as well as deliver planned shipmentsotalillion tons.
Heads of the railroad divisions have been ordered to ensure delivery of cars loaded with coal and oil. Priority has been given to the delivery of open cars for coal, coke, ore, and mine props, and special orders have been issued to the heads of the Kazakh and western Siberian Railroads to keep the coal moving.
The goal of illion tons set s realistic;illion tons were carried during the same period last year. Severe weather during these months could delay deliveries this year. (UNCLASSIFIED)
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Soviet Commercial Visitors During- September
Two Soviet delegations concerned with food and food processing highlighted an upswing in commercial visitors during September. Surenosplan food industry specialist, and Ivan Koltsa, Moldavian SSR first deputy minister of the food industry, came under an agreement on scientific and technicalwith Food Machinery International. Alek-sandr Malutin, director of the Institute ofFood Service, and Zinaidaublic catering official, arranged visits to institutional kitchens and fast-food equipment manufacturers in preparationast-food seminar in Moscow.
Overall, therepercent increase in the number of commercial visatocompared with August. High-levelduring the past month included:
irst deputyof the State Committee for Science and Technology, whoeven-man delegation that arrived to negotiate
with International Harvester and other firms. The ostensible interest of the group was in tractors and agricultural machinery. Also in the group, however, was an interpreter who usuallycomputer and semi-conductor
Ustinov,eputy minister of nonferrous metallurgy, who visitedCopper.
eputy minister of power machine building, hereelegation of engineers andof the State Committee forand Technology for negotiations with Babcock-Wilcox.
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Among tho other visitors wore:
even-man delegation of petroleum industry representatives here tofacilities for the production of equipmentemi-submersible drilling vessel at the Ruckernd visited Armco International, also to discuss hardware sales and possible licensing arrangements.
Canada came Anatoly Kousenko,of the Canadian office of Morflot Freightlinerso visit theMorflot America Shipping,wo employees of Stan-Canadaoronto-based exclusive distributing company for the Soviet trado association Stanko-import, to attend an.international machine tool exhibit;oviet trade representative in Canada to visitHarvester.
Visiting under US/USSR scientific andgreements were:
Chubarov, USSR deputy minister of agriculture, who arrived to study cotton growing and harvesting
Zuyev, chairman of Sovfrakht, the Soviet association for theof foreign tonnage, who led ato negotiate with the US Maritime Commission on freight rates for grain transportation. (UNCLASSIFIED)
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Original document.
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