EAST ASIA BRIEF

Created: 1/1/1977

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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EAST ASIA BRIEFV 1- IETNAM-V

AN OBSERVEROUND KNOWLEDGE OF VIETNAMESE POLITICS HAS PROVIDED AN INTERESTING ASSESSMENT OFFOREIGN POLICY AND POSSIBLE TACTICS IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE

//THE OBSERVER NOTES THAT VIETNAMESE EFFORTS TORELATIONS UITH OTHER COUNTRIES OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS AND THE GENERALLY LOU PROFILE THEY HAVE MAINTAINED AREN PART- TO STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITION UITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY BEFORE THEY BEGIN SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS UITH THE US. HE FEELSi HOUEVERi THAT THE VIETNAMESE OVERESTIMATE THE LEVERAGE THESE TIES UILL HAVE UITH THE

//HE BELIEVES THAT, LARGELY BECAUSE OF POOR BUREAU-CRATIC COMMUNICATIONS, THE VIETNAMESE HAVE LITTLEON MIAS. IN HIS VIEU, THE RECENT RELEASE OFAMES UAS THE RESULT OF CONSIDERABLE EFFORT AND UAS

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MERELY THE CYNICAL DISCLOSURE EU NAMESUCH LARGER LIST. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT USWOULD EVER BE ALLOWED TO CARRY OUT SEARCHES FOR MIAS OR CIAS WITHIN

//ALTHOUGH HANOI MAY INITIALLY APPEAR DURINGTO BREAK THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE MIA AND WAR REPARATIONSE BELIEVES AN ULTIMATE CONNECTION IS INEVITABLE UNLESS THE VIETNAMESE CAN OBTAIN UHAT THEY WANT FROM THE US. HE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE VIETNAMESE MAY NOU BELIEVE THEY HAVE OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND ON THE MIA ISSUE AND UORRY THAT DOMESTIC PRESSURE ON THEADniNISTRATION TOULL ACCOUNTING FROM HANOI

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//IN THISHE PRIMARY INTEREST OF THEIS ECONOMICAID FROM THEN THE OBSERVER'S VIEUi IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELYTO THE VIETNAMESE UHETHER US AID ISAR REPARATIONS" OR "HUMANITARIAN AID." HE SUGGESTS

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he us hay be able to string cut any payments and hake SUFSE0UENT installments contingentroper vietnamese attitude in applying and explaining the aid-he also speculates that the thieu regime's frozen assets in the us mayore important negotiating card than is generally

//as suggested by vietnamese sensitivity to theof us anti-uarhe human rights issue might uork to the advantage of the us in the negotiations. the vietnamese are becoming auare that international opinion applies to them A3 uell as to other countries, and that it might delay or hinder the attainment of their

//in addition, the' observer notes that the vietnamese appear to be trying to hold the soviets at arm's length politically and economically and to distance themselves as far as possible from sino-soviet competition.

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