(UNTITLED) RE EGYPT-LIBYA CONTINUE TO OBSERVE A DE FACTO TRUCE

Created: 7/1/1977

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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THE CONFLICT WITH EGYPT. FOR THEIR PART, THE EGYPTIANS ARE CLEARLY KEEPING THEIR OPTIONS OPEN TO TAKE FURTHER ACTION AGAINST LIBYA.V

|RESIDENT dADHAFI STILL HAS NOT RESPONDED TO EGYPT'S UNILATERAL DECLARATIONEASE-FIRE AND APPARENTLY INTENDS TO RESIST DOING

lHj HE EGYPTIANS REPORTEDLY BELIEVE THAT OADHAFI IS SIMPLY TRYING TO BUY TIRE IN ORDER TO PREPARE THE LIBYANAND MILITARYETALIATORY STRIKE AGAINST EGYPT- flADHAFI IS PROBABLY EOUALLY SUSPICIOUS OF THE EGYPTIANS, HE BELIEVES IN ANY CASE THAT HE HAS INTERNATIONAL SYMPATHY ON HIS SIDE AND THAT HE CAN WIN THE POLITICAL WAR, IF NOT THE MILITARY

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HAT AADHAFI HILL BE ABLE TO KEEP HIS PEOPLE FROM KNOWING THE EXTENT OP LIBYAN LOSSES FOR VERY LONG- AL THOUGH THE LIBYANS HAVE IGNORED EGYPTIAN ACCOUNTS Of THE SITUATION AND HAVE LITTLE ACCESS TO OTHER INFORMATION

//THE LIBYAN PEOPLE ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE DAMAGE AND EQUIPMENT LOSSES THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TOLD HERE INFLICTED BY EGYPTIAN SURPRISE ATTACKS- THEY DID* HOWEVER* PROTEST THE HIGH CASUALTY RATE SUFFERED BY LIBYAN "PEACEKEEPING TROOPS" IN LEBANON LAST YEAR* AND THEIR CURRENT ENTHUSIASM MAY DAMPEii CONSIDER/BLY AS HENS OF CASUALTY FIGURES SPREADS. THE EuYPTlANS CLAIM THE LIBYANS LOST CLOSE TO SQO SOLDIERS* ALTHOUGH THIS I'IGURE PROUAHLYAGGERATED*V

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//LIBYA REPORTEDLY IS CONTINUING TO RODILIZEWITH PERHAPS AS HANYLREADYD CONFISCATES CIVILIAN VEHICLES ARESCNT.IO THE EAST. UNUSUAL FLIGHTS BY

TOOK PLACE OVER TRIPOLI YESTERDAY, POSSIBLY TO BUTTRESS LIBYAN HORALE IN ANTICIPATION OF NEW FIGHTING.

3- IN THE FIRST OFFICIAL SOVIET RESPONSE TO THE FIGHTING BETWEEN EGYPT AND LIBYA* SOVIET PRESIDENT AND PARTY LEADER BtttZHHfi TEPIDLY REilARKED ON TUESDAY THAT HE HAD "RECEIVED WITH CONCERN- THE NEWS OF HOSTILITIES IN SOHE AREAS OF AFRICA* TUESDAY'S IPRAVDA ALSOOTATEMENT BY THE SEHI-OFFICIAL SOVIET AFRO-ASIAN SOLIDARITY CORHITTEE THAT CAREFULLY CRITICIZED EGYPT'S MILITARY ACTIONS AGAINST LIBYA, BUT AVOIDED LABELING EGYPT AS THE AGGRESSOR. THESE STATEMENTS INDICATE THAT THEWANT TB AVOID ANY FURTHER DETERIORATION IN RELATIONS WITH EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT SADAT-V

CE THE HOSTILITIES LAST WEE* BETWEEN EGYPT ANfi LIBYA- SOVIET COflNCNTARV HAS BEEN PAR LESS SUPPORTIVE OF

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YAM PRESIDENT AADHAFI THAN IT WAS DURING TWO OCCASIONS IN THE PAST YEAR WHEN THE THREAT OF HOSTILITIES EXISTED. BREZHNEV'S REMARKS ON TUESDAY WERE PARTICULARLY WEAK AND PRAVDA'S USETATEMENT BY THE SOLIDARITY COHMTTEE STRONGLY INDICATED THAT MOSCOW DID NOT WANT TO ANTAGONIZE THE EGYPTIANS* AT NO POINT DURING THE FIGHTING HAS THERE BEEN ANY SOVIET CRITICISfl OF SADAT PERSONALLY.V

I THE MILITARY CLASHES OVER THE WEEKEND DID NOT EVEN KEEP THE SOVIETS FROM USING EGYPT'S NATIONAL DAY TO CALLORMALIZATION OF SOVIET-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS. SOVIET ATTENDANCE AT EGYPTIAN EMBASSY RECEPTIONS IN MOSCOW WAS NORMAL* AND THERE WAS NO INDICATION THAT SOVIET OFFICIALS CONVEYED ANY ADVERSE REACTION TO THEIR EGYPTIAN HOSTS.V

11 THE MILD HANDLING OF THE EGYPTIANS SUGGESTS THATIN ADDITION TO TRYING TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER DETERIORATION IN ITS RELATIONS WITH CAIRO* IS ANXIOUS TO STABILIZE STATE-TO-STATE CONTACTS IN CRDER TOOLE IN THC POLITICKINGESUTlPIION OF THE CENEVA CONFERENCE ON THC RIDDLE CAST. THE SO-

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PRESUMABLY REALIZE THAT THEY CANNOT HOPE TOEANING-

FUL PART IN SETTLEMENT DISCUSSIONS AS LONG AS THEIR RELATIONS

Original document.

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