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SUBJECT: ORPA Cooaents sessment ofjltallan Local Elections
the uggestsQthe Andreottl government'sprobaolyengthened by tho Christian Democratic gainslosseshe local elections held lest month. Andnearly all Italian politicians are saying, doeseryof remaining In office through the December presidentialpossiblyhe other widely shared expectationtalythe presidential election will be followedationalsometime during the first half
thereonsiderable turbulence Seneathof Italian politics, and several factors bear c'ose watching.
The Coaravnlst Party line. The PCI's electoral setbackundamental question for the party, namely whether thesunned op In the "historic compromise' concept is still an effective vote-getter. Qn Berlinguer's Initial analysis of the elections, he strongly defended the "historic ccerp remise" strate.-y. But he also signaled Ms intention to Implement ite aggressive way. The party has been "too generous" with the Christian Oemocrats, he argued, and '.een punished by voters who expected It to push harder for fundamental changes. Thus, we are likely soon to see tbe PCI pressingarger voice In government decisions and being much more assertive about its policy preferences. But this will happen at precisely the time when Christian Democrats who criticize the present level of Connunist influence have been emboldened by the election results to caution the government against further concessions. Thisecipe for heightened political tension which, despite Andreottl's formidable strengths, could jeopardize his government in the period before OecenberJ?
Political Violence. The Red Brigades have been generally quiet for the last three weeks, and the lower level of violence has contributed to the optimism about Andfottl's prospects. There Is no evidence,that the Brigades' capability has been seriously dented. fAnother major kidnapping, an assassination,eneral deterioration of the security situation would lead to calls for an eaergency govenitaent Including the Coretunlsts and perhaps, depending on the severity and duration of the violence, to greater receptivity on the part of Christian Democrats and others^
rfslo>ntStatus The scenario outlinedaragraph one rests on the asstaaptt'ji that Leone serves his full tens as president. Top Christian Oemoerats, however, continue to see Leone as ertreeely vulnerable in connection with the Lockheed payoff trial, nowrogress. Should Leone feel compelled to resign as the result of some particularly damaging revelation, the electionuccessor would force Italian politicians to face an array of difficult problems ahead of schedule. The maneuvering Involved In liningresidential majority In Italy's electoral college is likely to Influence the pattern of fnterparty relation ships for some time to come. remature presidential election would advance the Italian political timetable and probably lead to Andreotti's resignation before December. (Andrvettleading contender for tbe presidency, along with Christian Oemocratlc Secretary General Taccagnlnl and Senate president Fanfani.)J
in sua, the odds do favor Andreotti's survival through December, butt least the usual number ofwild cardshe Italian deck capable of upsetting this prediction]
Original document.
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