NID CABLE: CHILE: REFERENDUM PERSPECTIVE

Created: 1/11/1978

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

IB

UMAM*S

IUUMB-

(Sie/nly CIllllllMtlflii)

; I

ccess to thta document will be restricted to those spproved tor fhs foliowlno specific sdh-ItU

J NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE

r

and Approved for Release0

S/cret

st'lcalion)

V

kkauB.

Chilean gov*vnm*Ht'*

Th*t of th* - tion indumkltarvictory for fr**ii*nt Unoohet thati* evn 7k* turnout -a*t onal ly htaay--aboutil-'tion ofillion eligible voter*, nith eroentth*ejootioneeolutionhiuman right* j

rv:that the government en-

ploved fraud In the-plebiscite. The government position waa icarefully worded to appeal to the strong nationalism of the Chlleanej Pinochet thereby assured himself of an overwhelming advantage against those gxoupe thategetive vote.//

het's victory will consolidate his support

within the aiory, particularly th* army, where doubt about ;hl* judgment and leadership was beginning to spread and will reaffirm his preeminent position in the junta.esult, he willreer hand in many

inochet will not hesitate to point to theee evidence of hisegitimacy and of his own political astuteness. H* ha* remarked thet there will be no more election* or;votingecade and evidently intend* to act a* though he nowandate for the slow transition to civilian rule that he outlined last July.//

, remark* on presidential andv'1 been inconsistent, however, and he may show some

flexibility on this point. The Chlleana, having been allowed to exercise the vote, are now likely to be more strident ingreater political participation.//

H^H e expect no harsh craexdowna, but Pinochet will alsioetrHrtainly be tougher toward his opponent* in thepolitical parties and in labor and church circles.he haa proa1aimed that th* curfew and th* *tat*-of-*iege restrittlons will remain in force, thereood chance that h* will relax them;when he think* he ha* suade th* point that Chile'; la .not bending to foreign pressure.//

ISC

I

government. Hoannounced hiaforced to.step

ie still sniping at Pinochet. Although he cly reaffirmed his loyalty and bryahsd off euggestiona

bihhpbmmvbmmmm^

Pinochet lacwer^mnigrydietator^Leign

leged that the CIA is baching herd-liners in.hopes of toppling UI

the President.//

oigh'ti motives are fromjclear, but hlacertain towill make hla poeltlon even more untenable. Leigh may be trying to provoke Pinouhat Intohim, 'perhaps on the assumption thattep would catalyse opposition within the armed esrvices and lead to Pinochet's resjoval.//

haii streased that his government will now adopta mure aggressive foreign policy, presumablya harder line toward the UN and other critics.//

with the US. Aitnougn

Washingtonundamental objective of his government, Pinochet probably believespeciflc quid pro.am aupport for Chlle'e requeata for loans through internationalhould be forthcoming in return for further responsee on human right* leauea. The Chilean approach to the |us for mediation on the Beagle Channel diapute with Argentina demonstrates aome hope fortgood relatione iflth tho US.//

hile has Tiado substantial progress, in iinprovinq its human rights practinoa, and most Chileans probably resent what they regerdack of recognltlon of thia change. Among noted

A starked reduction In reports of torture, illegal de* tentione, and "disappearances."

considerable improvement in treatment prisoners.ersona remain lmpriaoned on security-related charges.,

The.releeaeolitical prisoners over the past several years.'

mm

lit

Original document.

---

---