TRACT
SECRQT MOQQNT
Pinochet's Efforts To Strengthen Position
President Pinochet's removal of Air Force General Leigh from the ruling junta is only the preliminary bout leading up to the main event, lhe Chilean press is epec-ulsting that Manuel contreras, the former head of the National Intelligence Directorate, will be among those indicted next week in the assassination of formerto the US Orlando Letelier. Because it is widely believed that Contreras would not have acted withoutPinochet's consent, the Presidentough time ahead and has been working to consolidate his political position.
Leigh's ouster wss the culmination of hisfeud with Pinochet over the political future of the country. In this instance, Leigh's personsl criticism of Pinochet during an intervieworeignwas too much for the President, who was supported by the other junta members and the Council of Ministers. Leigh's removal eliminates Pinochet's most criticaland strengthens the President's control over the
junta.
Pinochet clearly outflanked his rival in the Leigh claims that he will take his case to the Supreme Court, but he has little chance for success, ssssm
IinisneaoT^TicaTiorce, even though the Air Force general officers maintained an aliwst sclid front with their former leader by either retiring orofir Force generals are gone. The newly appointed gonerals apparently are loyal to Pinochet.
Leigh's successor, former Minister of Health General Fernando Mat thai, told the press that he was surprised
hie appointment. Ho claimed that he himself had been content-plating resigning fro* the Air Force because he was not in agree sent with the positions taken by Leigh. It is almost certain, however, that Matthei had earlier agreed to join the junta. Matthei. SI,crupulously honest, political conservative and is considered to be pro-US.
Ftmondo Mot**,
furHO
Before his ouster of Leigh, Pinochet apparently believed that his position needed strengthening In recent weeks, he has beenthroughout the countryontinuation of hisHe has argued that many of Chile's domestic problems would become unmanageable if he were removed. Pinochet also has been successful in playing upon fears that Chile ia being encircled by unfriendly governments and that it is often the victim of foreign intervention in its domestic affairs.
One aspect of his campaign has been the formationersonalist political vehicle sisnorting the The Christian Democrats andr politicians have been critical of this, but they are not in ato hinder it if Pinochet judges that the public is in favor. The President nas substantial popular appeal, and even bis critics admit that he has been an effective leader in highly troubled times. Personal movements have had less success in Chile, however, than in other Latin American countries.
Despite Pinochet's efforts, some military officers are reported to hove been conducting low-key discussions on the possibility of replacing him. For the few who have considered theiability for some time, tbe prospect that Contreras nay be indicted argueslean sweep of the current leadership. For the
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who atill support Pinochet, however, the only way to preserve the accomplishments of the military regime is to keep him in power. Although they have little else in common, both groups believe that Contreras and Pinochet will be condemned anew by the world media and that Chile's international reputation will be further tarnished.
whatever happens during the next several weeks, it is clear that Pinochet is prepared to fight any move to oust him. His inclination is to tough lt out, relying on his military and popular support as well as on his belief that he himself cannot be indicted in the Letelier murder. The Army remeina the critical factor in these events. Pinochet, at present, is backed by the majority of Army generals. Should thia support begin to erode, however, the President's days will be numbered. We believe this process has already begun and will be accelerated by the announcement and contents of tbe Letelier indictments.
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Original document.
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