ITALIAN SITUATION

Created: 9/6/1979

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SUBJECT: Italian Situation

Italian Prime Minister Cossiga's success in puttingovernment last month provides for little morepolitical truce"eepening political crisis. The parties now have more time to searchay out of tha stalemate that has thusfar blocked the formationore stable government. Qheir objectives in agreeing to this "transitional" formula, howver, are so Incompatible as to make the chances for breaking the deadlcck as remote as

The Christian Democrats, Italy's largest party, needs the backing of either the second-ranking Communists or the third-place Socialists in order toonfidence vote. Cosslgaocialist agreement to abstain, thereby providing his goveiToontajority. The Socialists apparently were willing to prop up the government only becauseeconciles their minimumthe arrangement be temporary and "technocratic" 1nthe Christian Democratic insistence on retaining the prime ministry. The Socialists evidently

are gambling that the Christian Democrats eventually will consent toovernment led by the Socialists.olution apparently was the major factor uniting the Socialists who are deeply divided over whether to cooperate with the Christian Democrats, but behind party chief Craxl's earlier attempt tot is uncertain how long Craxl win be able to keep his partyehe Christian Democrats continue to reject his party's central demand.'

3. The Christian Democrats themselves are finding it increasingly difficult to paper over their deep divisions over whether to seek the support of the SociaUsts.or the Communists. They seem generally united, however. In viewing Cossiga's governmenteans to retain the prime ministry. Most Christian Democrats are understandably reluctant to precipitate showdown over their Internal differences but they will find It very difficult to avoid one at their party congress, now scheduled for December, uptraparty unity is not likely to be any easier in the wake of the congress, but the longer the Christian Democrats temporize, the less, likely the Socialists will be to allow Cossiga's government to survive.

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second ranking Communists are prepared to bide their time

in the opposition. Cossiga's administration finally gives them ato oppose; the party evidently will try to recapture its image asof struggle" while enhancing Us credentials as aactcr. Qonrninist Chief Berlinguer ifferedsupport to Cossiga's government onthis move evidently is calculated to aid those Christiancloser relations with the Communists. In addition,be hoping to make the govemaent dependent on Communisttoodevelopment which eventually could force theCommunists or technocrats close to the party as cabinet ministers^}

the midst of these conflicting pressures, thenay manage to stay In place until the local andscheduled forhich all theignificant indicator of public attitudes after more thanof political uncertainty, (fit this early stage, predictionsbut It does seen unlikely that the results will makethe Christian Democrats and the Socialists any easier, orthe Comrninistsoverning formula any less difficult to ivoidj

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